Game Over Clinton

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3. Popular vote | As this article
points out, the Clinton campaign’s projections of being in the lead in
the popular vote rely on including Michigan (where Obama’s name wasn’t
even on the ballot) and excluding the caucuses (which don’t release
official figures in terms of votes, but which the Obama campaign tended
to win significantly). Clinton’s last big shot to take the lead with
the popular vote was in Indiana. In winning be such a narrow margin
that chance is over.

4. Florida and Michigan | These two crucial general
election states got a telling off from the party for trying to bring
their primaries forward and as a result were stripped of their
delegates. Hillary wants to include these delegates (she won both by
large margins, though hers was the only name on the ballot in
Michigan), even going so far as to suggest that all those votes that
didn’t go to her in Michigan can be counted as for Senator Obama.
However, Politico.com recently revealed that even if the Obama campaign
were to fully embrace this suggestion, it still wouldn’t provide enough
delegates for Clinton to take the nomination.

5. Campaigning | While Hillary has admitted to loaning her
campaign $20 million, Barack has completely shifted his campaigning
strategy. In the next couple of weeks
he is spending time in Michigan, Florida and Missouri. All are big
general election states, and the lack of a contested primary in the
first two meant that the Obama campaign has not yet laid out a ground
organization there. Obama’s focus is shifting from the primaries to the
general election.

The only thing left to hold out for if you’ve got money on Senator
Clinton is the hope that some massive new scandal develops which makes
Obama unelectable. Given that this is day 9,293,291,03… of the
primary season that seems pretty unlikely.

With all that in mind the race changes direction. There’s the
question of when Hillary will finally call it quits and we may find
some clues to that tonight in her victory speech remarks (attacking
Obama = carrying on), and margin of victory (polls have put her 30
points clear, anything significantly under that will make it hard to
stay in the race). It’s been suggested she may be holding out as a
bargaining chip to get something from Obama (like the Vice President
nomination or his adoption of one of her key policies).

There’s also the question of whether the drawn out primary season has harmed the Democratic chances in November.

Most excitingly of all, there’s the question of who the GOP and
Democrats will pick as Vice President nominee. Expect posts giving odds
on different possible candidates for this in the next few days. In the
meantime, why not post your suggestions below.

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