Why did the election happen?
A special election was called following the death of Ted Kennedy in August 2009: Kennedy had served as senator for Massachusetts for nine terms totaling forty six consecutive years in office. Up until 2004 such an election would not have occurred; however in 2004 the Massachusetts General Court altered the law that had previously permitted the state’s Governor (then Mitt Romney) to appoint a senator should an unexpected vacancy arise. Thus Governor Deval Patrick scheduled the special election for January 19 2010; the Democratic party put forward Martha Coakely the state’s Attorney-General, the Republicans selected Scott Brown, a state senator.
Why was the Democrat loss such a shock?
When the results came in the polls demonstrated a clear Republican victory: Brown took 51.9% of the vote to Coakely’s 47.1%. This was a catastrophe for the Democrats on two fronts; in the first instance because Massachusetts is widely considered the be one of the ‘Bluest’ of the blue states, Barack Obama took 61.8% of the vote there in the Presidential Election in 2008. The state is famous for being the spiritual home of the Kennedy political dynasty; Ted Kennedy took over his seat from his brother John when the latter became President in 1960. In a broader sense the Republican win in Massachusetts is a disaster for Democrats across the country. With Brown’s victory the balance in the United States Senate has shifted to a Democratic majority of 59-41, as opposed to a previously filibuster-proof majority of 60-40. T
his means Senate Republicans can now obstruct any legislation – particularly healthcare reform – should they so wish.
How did Martha Coakely lose?
Martha Coakley was widely considered to be a shoe-in for the seat: it was almost inconceivable that a Republican senator would be elected in Massachusetts – let alone to Ted Kennedy’s former seat. This complacency is seen to be at the root of the upset, Coakley seemed to consider herself the Senator-Elect and accordingly made little effort to campaign; she even took a holiday in the middle of the election campaign. When a local newspaper asked her whether she thought she was being too passive in the campaign she responded with indignation: “As opposed to standing outside Fenway park? In the cold? Shaking hands?”. Not only was her campaign complacent, it was also incompetent: she misspelt ‘Massachusetts’ in one of her election broadcasts.
How did the Republicans win?
In contrast to the seeming inevitability of the Coakley campaign, Scott Brown was an easy target for political satirists across the country. Brown became infamous after the media got hold of a nude photo shoot he did for Cosmopolitan in 1982; in addition Brown’s daughter had been a successful candidate on American Idol. However, Brown ran an astute and dynamic campaign. He attracted populist appeal in televised debates with lines such as “this Senate seat doesn’t belong to any one person or political party. It belongs to you, the people”. He also courted anti-Obama sentiment by forging an alliance with the Tea Party Express and condemning healthcare reform: in his victory speech he committed himself to opposing healthcare reform in the Senate stating that reform “would raise taxes, destroy jobs and increase debt”.
What is the significance of the loss for healthcare reform?
In the worst-case scenario Brown’s victory could be the death-knell for Obama’s ambitious healthcare reform package. The Republicans in both houses of congresses have up until now adopted a policy of obstruction without having any real ability to actually block reform. With this one extra seat the specter of the filibuster has been raised and, should they so wish, Senate Republicans could either kill the bill or hold Obama hostage in exchange for political concessions. Some Democrats have prematurely adopted fatalist positions; Anthony Weiner a Democratic congressman from New York stated that “I think you can make a pretty good argument that health care might be dead”.
What was the reaction in the White House?
Republican strategists intentionally framed the special election in Massachusetts as a referendum on the Obama administration and in particular on proposed healthcare reform. Republicans were jubilant following Brown’s victory, now nicknamed the ‘Massachusetts’ Miracle’ which many read as a good omen for the Congressional elections taking place later in the year. The White House has reacted calmly to the Republican victory with Obama promising not to ‘jam’ healthcare legislation through the Senate before Brown can take up his seat.
The news of Brown’s victory came exactly a year after Obama’s triumphant inauguration and in an interview the President reflected that he might have become too involved in getting health care reform passed and “lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people”.
