The American people have given President Obama the benefit of the doubt and another four years to build his legacy. When historians look back at the period 2008-2016, they will undoubtedly mark it as a fundamental epoch in which the fortunes of this still young nation were determined, not least because of the government of the day.
Obama’s supporters are the young, unisexual and multiracial coalition that will represent the future America, and this is important because while commentators worry that the country is becoming increasingly divided, the major schism is intergenerational, with the politics of an aging and rural white population becoming less relevant. Republicans need to bear this in mind if they wish to remain a competitive party.
Despite costing $6 billon and requiring over one million televised advertisements, the election has changed nothing. The House of Representatives is still controlled by Republicans, while the Democrats have retained their majority in the Senate, a situation which threatens to make a lame duck of the President. It is actually quite incredible that the public appear weary of Washington politics, yet have voted for a Democratic president and a Republican House, all of whose seats were contested. Contrary to what they say, Americans like divided power; it is in their constitution to ward off the tyranny of untrammeled authority.
However, danger lurks here as Mr. Obama knows that he will need cross-partisan support if his country is to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax rises and spending cuts that is feared will plunge the United States back into recession from January. Surely, Obama will have to apply the moral authority with which winning a clear mandate for a second term endows him, and it is not immediately clear what material benefit the Republicans gain from blocking progress on this crucial issue. Indeed, Mitt Romney, in his endearing concession speech, implored congressmen to “reach across the aisle and do the people’s work”. Whatever happens, the next few months will be tumultuous and fraught with uncertainty.
Generally, however, the future looks very bright for the United States. Unlike Europe, which has a shrinking demography, America’s population is growing heartily with strong immigration and a inchoate baby boom in the Latino community. This kind of population replacement will limit the burden that a growing aging population will place on the country in terms of social care and lost economic activity.
There is also rather a lot of excitement growing in Silicon Valley about a third industrial revolution involving 3D printing. The technology is expected to completely overhaul both consumer society through customisation and production processes, which could lead to the repatriation of manufacturing closer to the consumer. It is also set to ignite a debate about the division of national income between people who own capital and people who work, as the new technology is likely to vastly reduce the number of people necessary in industry. Some optimistic economics say that it could finally solve the economic problem of scarcity, ignoring any environmental constraints, and freeing the masses to literally consume at leisure. At the very least, America remains an innovative, highly educated and risk-taking nation, and this will continue to give it a strong edge over the rising phoenix, China.
While foreign policy was not a key issue during the election, it will certainly play a strong role in the second Obama administration. Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and so long as economic sanctions, particularly oil embargoes, remain, the Iranian people will become increasingly restive of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime. But the growing elephant at the U.S. Department of State is China, which could be the world’s largest economy within four years. China cannot be stopped; its population is too large and globalisation has made the world a single market, and before the Industrial Revolution, the Jin, Western, Yuan and Ming Dynasties presided when China was the centre of the world between 1115-1662. So declaring China a currency manipulator and engaging in currency tic-for-tats set a dangerous precedent, and in the spirit of Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian soldier and theorist, trade politics is war by other means. Obama recognises the need to work with China to raise all boats, but this does not simultaneously require the US to reduce its global military presence; American naval power helps keeps the world’s shipping routes secure and guarantees safe trade for the world’s exporters.
Yet there is someone quite alluring and inspiring about America. Arthur Conan Doyle writes about the great journey of immigrant Mormon believers seeking the promised land in Utah: “with a constancy almost unparalleled in history … the savage man, and the savage beast, hunger, thirst, fatigue, and disease – every impediment which Nature could place in the way – had all been overcome with Anglo-Saxon tenacity.” America’s hasn’t been a perfect history but at its heart is the belief in equality in opportunity while accepting inequality in outcome, a meritocracy not without its criticisms as Alain du Botton quite rightly points out as an indifference to suffering. In every nation on earth, outcome is unequal and while this might contaminate equality of opportunity, I think there is something in what Barack Obama said in his acceptance speech that “…hope is that stubborn thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us so long as we have the courage to keep reaching, to keep working, to keep fighting.”. The President will have to govern for an increasingly broadening church and ensure that the best conditions are in place to include as many of his parishioners in the American Dream as possible.
