Falling undergraduate numbers in 2012-13 might lead the UK economy to lose £6.6 billion over the next forty years, according to a report recently published by a university think tank.
Based on application forecasts from London Economics, an economic consultancy, the think tank Million+ estimated that the change in fees and funding arrangements would result in a reduction in first-time undergraduates of approximately 30,000.
Oxford offers 3,000 places every year, for which over 17,000 people have applied during each of the last three years. Application rates to Oxford had previously been increasing year on year for at least a decade.
The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) released figures on Wednesday showing that the total number of applicants after the 15 January deadline for admission in 2013 is 3.5 per cent up from last year.
Oxford University has not yet released admissions figures for 2013 entry.
The Chief Executive of UCAS, Mary Curnock Cook, commented, “This is an encouraging report, with no double-dip for applications and continuing improvements for disadvantaged groups. Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are 80 per cent more likely to apply than a decade ago.
“However, there remains a stubborn gap between application rates for young men and young women. This is most pronounced for disadvantaged groups where young women are 50% more likely to apply than young men.”
OUSU’s Vice-President (Access and Academic Affairs), David Messling, commented, “University education is a great investment, both for individuals and nationally, and it’s encouraging to see that, for the moment, this message is getting through, and there hasn’t been a large drop in applications to Higher Education. However, Oxford still faces the challenge that students are put off applying – not just because of finance, but due to school history, media stereotypes, and perceptions that Oxford is not for them. Set against an overall backdrop of applications staying steady, Oxford must continue to keep finding new ways to encourage those with the talent to apply. It’s not enough to look at steady applications – the challenge is to aim for what those application figures would look like if every student with the ability to be here was applying.”
The report on the impact of falling undergraduate numbers on the UK economy, published by the think tank Million + and London economics, found that the Exchequer gains £94,000 from financing an undergraduate degree, equivalent to a rate of return of 10.8 per cent, and that it gains £62,000, or a 25.0 per cent rate of return, from a master’s degree.
A second year PPE undergraduate, Adam Ward, commented, “If accurate, these figures [on the loss to the economy] are worrying… However, I have been really impressed by the outreach programmes provided by Oxford, and am pleased to read that application numbers haven’t fallen at the University.”
A University spokesperson commented, “We believe applicants recognise the world-class education Oxford provides and the great benefits of the collegiate system, and that the steady applications over the last two rounds reflect an understanding that, in the new fees regime, Oxford is outstanding value, is no more expensive than any other university, and offers an exceptionally generous financial support package for lower-income students.”
Messling further commented, “Million+’s report touches only briefly on postgraduate study, yet this is an area where the UK is lagging internationally, and many students are prevented from pursuing postgraduate education by lack of finance – an issue spanning both justice for the individual, and the future of the UK economy.”
The report also found that the average net earnings premium for one person educated to undergraduate level is £115,000 over a working lifetime, and that a master’s degree increases the figure by approximately £59,000.
The report additionally established that the average international undergraduate brings £11,988 per year into the UK economy on top of tuition fees of £7,088, and that the corresponding figure for postgraduates is £14,666, with tuition fees of £8,204.
