HOW DID MBEKI FALL FROM GRACE?
Mbeki miscalculated his support. At the December 2007 ANC congress in Pholokwane, a majority of delegates voted against him and his slate. The unions and the Youth and Women’s Leagues dominated proceedings, representing a clear victory for the left. It also represented a generational shift; many younger delegates opposed Mbeki. He continued as State President and would have served until the next election in April 2009. He was increasingly isolated as the new party leaders sought to move their supporters into key positions. This September, a judge suggested that Mbeki had been involved with charges launched against Jacob Zuma, his political rival. The ANC national executive then requested Mbeki’s early departure. He did not have the support to contest the decision.
WHY IS ZUMA POPULAR?
Jacob Zuma, who was Mbeki’s Vice-President until 2005 and who has now taken over as ANC President, presents himself as a man of the people. He is not an ideologue, nor has he established any clear alternative view of the political future. Yet he spotted the groundwell of opposition to Mbeki and he has a very different political style. He took off in the rural areas with extended speaking tours. While Mbeki spoke only in English, Zuma was comfortable in Zulu, the most widely used African language in South Africa. Famously, he often danced in front of crowds.
HOW DID ZUMA GAIN SUPPORT?
Unlike the austere and intellectual Mbeki, Zuma was beloved by the left, but they held back from challenging Mbeki openly until Zuma could create the political space. They saw that Zuma would provide opportunities for more redistributionist socioeconomic policies. Ironically, Zuma also had sufficient skill to try to reassure business and South Africa’s minorities. He travelled overseas and made careful comments about continuities in economic policy. He was more openly critical than Mbeki of Mugabe. And he took a clearer position on the medical advantages of anti-retrovirals to treat HIV/AIDS. He said many of the things that Westerners wished to hear and worked to win over highly diverse constituencies.
WHAT DID MBEKI GET WRONG?
Mbeki was ousted both because of immediate political rivalries and deeper social forces. In 2005, he sacked Vice-President Zuma, who was implicated in corruption charges. Zuma was not convicted and was restored to his position in the party – increasingly in opposition to Mbeki. Many saw Mbeki’s candidacy for a third term as ANC President as an attempt to control the party and the political process after his term as State President.He centralized power within the party and quickly excluded opponents from top positions. While Mbeki presided over a period of economic growth, not all South Africans benefited.
WHY DID ZUMA EMERGE AS LEADER?
While few others in the ANC would have risked taking on Mbeki, Zuma had nothing to lose. In 2005 he was relieved of the Vice-Presidency by Zuma due to corruption charges, and was subject to relentless media exposure over his rape trial (he was acquitted). In the end, these charges did not destroy him. It is important to remember that Zuma had a good and loyal track record in the ANC and some support. He had been a prisoner on Robben Island and member of the military underground. Like Mbeki, he spent time in exile. On his return, he made a major contribution to peace talks and established himself at the heart of the party. He had had a reasonable chance of becoming the next president before he was sacked in 2005.
WILL THE PARTY NOW UNITE BEHIND ZUMA?
Zuma is backed by a fragile alliance which has not yet solidified. Some of those around him seek political office and enrichment, and there is potentially a chasm between the Africanist radicals of the Youth League, and the trade unionists. The caretaker government has also given opportunties to others, notably the widely trusted temporary president, Kgalema Motlanthe – a former student activist, Robben Island prisoner, and trade unionist. Zuma is very likely to lead the ANC into the next election, and it is difficult to see how he could be prevented from taking office, but the party is a complex organization and there is no constitutional provision that the leader of the party must be the State President. It is possible that Mbeki’s allies will form an alternative party. Lekota, cabinet minister and national chairman of the ANC, who was shouted down at Pholokwane, openly challenged the new leadership and was suspended on 14th October 2008. The ANC is attempting to close ranks and prevent a major split. It is difficult to see where Lekota would find mass support. While the ANC’s hegemony may be less secure, and a split is possible, it is equally likely that most people in the different wings will stick together.
