The political game in Europe is changing. Voters’ support is shifting from the incumbent centrists to parties which represent the extremes of the political spectrum. UKIP in Britain, the National Front in France and Podemos in Spain are just some examples of more radical parties gaining momentum.
Yet until January 25th, none of Europe’s more radical parties had achieved a major breakthrough. Certainly none had managed to seize the reins of government. The rise to power of the populist left-wing party Syriza, in Greece, has changed this. The question remains, however, as to what else will change? The mandate given to Syriza by the Greek people is for its leader, Alexis Tsipras, to renegotiate Greece’s bailout conditions; write down half of the country’s public debt; and curtail austerity – all while keeping Greece in the Euro. Is that an impossible mandate?
Greece cannot default on its debt since this would effectively result in it leaving the Euro – an outcome that the majority of Greeks do not want, and an outcome that would almost certainly be more harmful to Greece’s economic prospects than the current austerity programme.
Nor can the rest of the Eurozone agree to write down Greek debt. Angela Merkel ruled this out last weekend, saying that this would be equivalent to a handout from taxpayers in other Eurozone countries, many of whom are suffering from their own recessions. Such an act would be tantamount to pressing the political self-destruct button. It would also embolden other heavily indebted southern European countries to make similar deals, leading to uncertainty in the markets.
Regardless of the impossibility of Tsipras’ mandate, the Greek Prime Minister cannot renege on his election promises. The coalition agreement between Syriza and the right-wing Independent Greeks party was formed on the premise of debt reduction. Failure to achieve this will lead to the collapse of the government or a sudden default and a Greek exit from the Euro which nobody wants.
The interests of the Greek government appear irreconcilable with those of the troika – the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF – as well as with the interests of much of Northern Europe. Who will win the day?
As JoseÌ Ignacio Torreblanca of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank argues, populist political parties have changed the nature of the political game. Frustration with an ‘out-of-touch elite’ has fuelled the advance of outsider populist parties across Europe. Tsipras has played the role of the outsider well, but can he display the statesmanship required of an insider?
If Tsipras cannot secure concessions, he will still have to persuade the Greek electorate that debts have somehow been reduced. Opaque statements will be on the agenda, and compromise rather than change will be the theme of the day.
What does all this mean for the populist parties vying for power across Europe? The example shown by Greece will make one thing clear: an electoral mandate does not make it easy to change the status quo. Tsipras and his party are likely to fail to achieve their stated aims, and this will send a message to voters, particularly those in the southern Eurozone countries, that the end of austerity is not an election away.
In the end, power remains in the hands of European political insiders and the election of Syriza in Greece, while seemingly momentous, will do little to change that. On this occasion, David cannot defeat Goliath.
