On Tuesday 17th March, Israel elected their parliament for the next four years. In essence this was a vote either for the continuation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government or for change. The result? A disastrous vote for more of the same.
Polls indicated a close-run election, but at the final count Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party managed to seize the win. With Israel’s proportional representation voting system meaning that a majority for one party is near impossible, Netanyahu now has 28 days to form a coalition. It will most likely comprise the Jewish Home party, Kulanu and other ultra-orthodox groups.
The Jewish Home Party is unashamedly racist and advocates the illegal expansion of Israeli settlements and the use of military force against the Palestinians. Their leader Naftali Bennett insists “on continuing construction in the West bank and Jerusalem”. He has also said that “there will never be a peace plan with the Palestinians” and that he “will do everything in [his] power to make sure they never get a state”. The other major member of the likely coalition, Kulanu, is focussed primarily on domestic issues and will do little to alter the course of the government, a course that currently flies in the face of international law.
The alternative prospect that was presented to the Israeli electorate symbolised change and progress and came in the form of the Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni. The Zionist Union is a coalition of left-leaning parties that promised to repair relations with both Palestine and the international community. Their defeat signifies the death of any hope for an improvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict any time soon. As Saeb Erekat a chief Palestinian negotiator in the failed peace talks of 2014 notes, “It is clear Israel has voted for burying the peace process, against the two state choice and for the continuation of occupation and settlement.”
So what does the future hold for Israel, given the prospect of another four years of Netanyahu? Saeb Erekat described the incumbent’s campaign as a “platform based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people”. Mr Netanyahu’s rhetoric has indeed taken a turn for the worse over recent days as he has explicitly stated that he will not allow the creation of a Palestinian state and has vowed to build more settlements. A hint of racist undertones was evident when taking to Twitter he warned his supporters, “Arab voters are coming in droves to the ballot boxes. Left-wing NGOs bring them in buses.”
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However, one only needs to look at the past four years to predict what the next four will entail. Under the guiding hand of Mr Netanyahu, the number of Jewish-only settlements existing on occupied Palestinian territory has grown by 23 percent since 2009. Israel has also carried out two large-scale military offensives in the Gaza strip over that time. Considering Mr Netanyahu’s clear stance, it is not difficult to envisage a future in which Palestine eventually becomes entirely consumed by an Israeli invasion to leave behind a single apartheid state in which Palestinians are treated as second class citizens.
The international community (including the UN, US and the EU) officially recognises a two state solution as the most desirable. This is by no means an easy or a quick solution, but it is the only one that is just. The barrier to achieving this and subsequent peace is purely political, and while it is undoubtedly a difficult stance to take, if an Israeli prime minister did support it, it would be entirely possible. The Zionist Union could have offered such a prime minister in Herzog.
Of course Israel do not deserve anywhere near the whole portion of blame for the continuation of this conflict. Hamas (internationally recognised as a terrorist organisation) have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in both Palestine and Israel. While this is clearly unacceptable, it is Israeli violations of international law that must be addressed before any change in Palestine can occur. So, it seems like the Israeli electorate have in effect voted to maintain Hamas and their devastating effects on both states.
There are three immediate short term steps that Israel must take to achieve peace. Firstly, they must stop building settlements on illegally occupied land. Then they must halt its military operations in Palestine. Finally, peace talks need to be reinstated.
In the long term, Israel must recognise the Palestinian state. From there it is then possible for a two state agreement to be reached whereby, with land swaps, Israel may keep the vast majority of its settlements. However, after Tuesday’s election we must now wait another four years before there is even the slightest possibility of the first of these steps being taken.
