Just a few years ago, the prospect of a self-described Socialist winning the democratic ticket would have seemed preposterous. It was this view, now largely anachronistic, that prevented Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders and his bid for the White House from being taken seriously. Yet, we were, almost all of us, utterly wrong. His increasingly momentous campaign has certainly shaken the all-time Democratic favoured, Hillary Clinton, especially after her landslide defeat in New Hampshire and the unexpected draw in Iowa. Even before these two debacles, the pressure was mounting, forcing Clinton to reconsider her views and move to the left, especially on the issue of minimum wage and on Wall Street regulation. Despite this, it is all over. Or at least it will soon be. The Nevada caucus showed Clinton’s strength and the cause of her future victory: the Mid-West and Southern states and their coloured minorities. In these two categories, Sanders seems unable to climb mount improbable and revert the situation as he has done in the East Coast, which appears to be by now a ‘Bernite’ stronghold. His lack of campaign funds and Super PAC sponsors, in this case, does not favour him either, especially in appealing to low-information voters in the deep South.
Until now, these factors did not suffice to bring the duel between the two to a premature end, making the race a thrilling but time-wasting head-to-head, but next Tuesday, they will. Coming up on the 1st of March, ‘Super Tuesday’ will see a line-up of 11 states (plus residents abroad and American Samoa) and, you guessed it, they are disproportionately Southern. Ranging from Texas to the Clinton family’s historical stronghold and home state of Arkansas, the caucuses will be a bloodbath. As if this wasn’t enough, Southern States tend to present a disproportionate number of delegates per state, as Texas has almost ten times Vermont’s. By now, it should be clear where this is going. Sanders’ probable victories in Massachusetts and Vermont will mean nothing when juxtaposed to Clinton’s expected victories virtually everywhere else.
But Super Tuesday’s lacerations will not be limited to the sheer delegate numbers, as the media perception and coverage of the Sanders campaign will revert to its original state of dismissive disregard. Bundled with the lack of Super Delegates, and the widening delegate spread, currently sitting on a solid 502 to 70 in Clinton’s favour, the Sanders phenomena will be promptly dismissed, and the party will rally around Clinton and her name recognition. It is true that the Super Delegates’ support is not yet binding, and their endorsement can be changed at any time, as happened in 2008 when many defected to Obama’s camp. But the polling numbers do not justify such a rearrangement, especially considering Sanders’ alienation from the party leadership, from where the Super Delegates are picked. Again, at the cost of appearing redundant it must be said once more: it’s over, and it is time to clean up and go home.
While Clinton’s defeat is highly unlikely at this point, the Sanders campaign will not evaporate as did Jeb Bush’s. The reason is simple. Sanders does not count on the support of large donors which will de-fund his campaign in case of serious and unexpected political beatings, allowing him to carry on nevertheless, and making him likely to stick around and give Clinton and her Super PAC donors heart palpitations. But this foreseeable panic will have to do more with Sanders’ extreme stances, by U.S. standards at least, and Hillary Clinton’s unmatched desire to make Bill her First lady. This said, the Sanders phenomena and presidential bid should not be quickly dismissed as a temporary phantasmagoria from which the Democrats were bound to wake up. Along with Trump, he was the political revelation of the race. It did stir up an astonishing enthusiasm in the American left; a body which nobody really thought existed. It did influence other candidates on both sides. It did pose a threat to the, otherwise unchallenged, Clinton; but, as of Tuesday, the use of the past tense will become imperative.
