The electoral map of Oxfordshire is set to be redrawn, with big implications for the next general election, as the four-month deadline for the Government to approve new constituency boundaries fast approaches.
Covering all 650 seats in the Commons, final proposals by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster Constituencies were laid before Parliament this June, following an extensive consultation by the four national boundary commissions. The commissioners decided against cutting the number of parliamentary seats down to 600; nonetheless, they made a number of significant changes in Oxford and beyond.
In particular, two wards in central Oxford, Carfax and Holywell – covering the vast majority of the University of Oxford’s colleges and a large population of students & academics – have been transferred to Layla Moran’s seat of Oxford West & Abingdon. This constituency will also receive the rural Marcham ward, while losing the outlying Kidlington and Yarnton communities.
With an early general election looking more and more likely, this mixture of urban and rural voters is likely to shake up the constituency’s political dynamics, opening new opportunities for student campaigners to find their voices, and potentially turning the contest into a three-way race between the Conservatives, Labour, and the incumbent Liberal Democrats.
These parties, whatever their national platforms, will be forced to take into account the sizeable student vote in the new boundaries when running their campaigns, and to rely on student political societies for campaign fieldwork.
Indeed, it’s possible that the focus of student political activism may shift westwards, from the safe seat of Oxford East – represented by Labour Party Chair & Shadow Cabinet member Anneliese Dodds M.P – in the face of a projected landslide for the Opposition.
Plans to split Banbury constituency in two, with Chipping Norton folded into Banbury and a new Bicester & Woodstock seat formed from wards in the District of West Oxfordshire, are also going ahead, though some responses to the consultation sought – unsuccessfully – to recognise Kidlington in the constituency’s name.
There is little demographic variation in the new Oxfordshire constituencies, with each one sporting an electorate between 69,943 and 74,356.
Representatives of Oxford’s political parties seem entirely satisfied with the changes. Layla Moran M.P., speaking to Cherwell, described the review as “very positive for the Liberal Democrats”, expressing regret for the transfer of Kidlington and Yarnton but optimism for the party’s future prospects in the county.
“The new Bicester & Woodstock, Didcot & Wantage, Henley & Thame and Witney constituencies are all very solid prospects for the Lib Dems.”
Ms. Moran M.P. further praised the Boundary Commission for carrying out the 2023 Periodic Review “fairly and effectively”, though expressed the Liberal Democrats’ preference for a “fairer and more proportionate” electoral system.
The Oxford University Conservative Association, meanwhile, told Cherwell they were “excited for the new challenges” the updated electoral map poses, suggesting that the city “could become a genuinely competitive area for our party”.
All that remains is for the Government to submit an Order in Council to put the recommendations into effect.
The Oxford University Labour Club has been reached out to for comment.
