In a groundbreaking study published in Nature, researchers at Oxford and Harvard have unveiled EVEscape, a state-of-the-art AI tool designed to predict the emergence of new viral variants. The study highlights the tool’s ability to anticipate variants solely from the data available at the start of an outbreak, aiding in preventative measures and vaccine design.
EVEscape combines a deep-learning model with a comprehensive collection of viral sequences. This synergy empowers the tool to forecast which viral variants are most likely to evolve, providing invaluable insights for vaccine and therapeutics developers.
The study’s co-lead author and DPhil student at Oxford, Pascal Notin, emphasized the value of EVEscape in pandemic tracking and vaccine development: “Our study shows that had EVEscape been deployed at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it would have accurately predicted the most frequent mutations and the most concerning variants for SARS-CoV-2.”
Researchers also tested EVEscape’s versatility by feeding it data to predict mutations across various viruses. EVEscape successfully forecasted the mutations for viruses including influenza, HIV, and pandemic-potential viruses like Lassa and Nipah.
From Oxford’s Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning group, Associate Professor Yarin Gal shed light on what set EVEscape apart from its previous iterations: “We developed new AI methods that do not have to wait for relevant antibodies to arise in the population.”
The origins of EVEscape can be traced back to its predecessor, EVE (Evolutionary Model of Variant Effect). Initially designed to predict genetic mutations on non-contagious diseases such as cancer and heart diseases, EVE had already proven its mettle. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic galvanized efforts to leverage its potential for predicting viral variants.
For now, the researchers are monitoring COVID virus strains in real-time with EVEscape, providing biweekly updates on new variants and sharing their data with global entities like the World Health Organization (WHO). The complete code for EVEscape is publically available online.
With the potential to aid in designing resilient vaccines and treatments, EVEscape may soon play a vital role in predicting and mitigating the effects of both well-known viruses and lesser-known, yet potentially devastating ones.
