Electing a President in the United States is a global event. Why, though, is it so important? In the US, this election will significantly impact rights for minorities, women, and speech. As for non-American Oxford students, a unique impact on their lives is not forthcoming (except more Union debates about Trump). Our cushy accommodations, overflowing libraries and stained-glass windows have seen worse through the ages. But, is there anything else we should fear?
I believe there is. Trump’s record as a famous billionaire, political candidate and president is one of racism, misogyny, disdain for international norms and the rule of law, and self-interest. Having been decisively elected by the American people, the United States’ allies and adversaries must realise the rulebook that guided the world for decades is finally out the window.
Without international norms, what we are left with is power. It may, arguably, restrain America’s adversaries. Its allies can expect different effects. For instance, Trump may hold Britain to certain standards about China or about increasing its defence spending, which we can argue is not in Britain’s interest, and threaten it with some sanctions. But, would he also insist Britain protect migrants’ rights or help it in stopping far-right propaganda and disinformation? In other words, would he defend democratic ideals in the United States and beyond?
Surely not. Trump and his allies recklessly spread disinformation with deadly consequences. His presidency is likely to play out in an incoherent and erratic manner across all areas of life and politics. While this will begin in the United States, it will quickly spread to its allies and adversaries. To date, Donald Trump has influenced Brexit, COVID norms, NATO and far-right violence. American or not, you will soon know what is next and should be concerned.
