Thursday 17th July 2025
Blog Page 1065

Is This Art? Lynton Crosby

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Every election in itself produces enough material to arguably be considered art. From campaign posters, debates and public appearances, each element is tightly controlled by spin doctors, campaign managers and script writers to evoke the greatest emotional response from the audience with the hope that this may eventually transform into votes. The simpler politicians try to make events appear, the more thought appears to be involved. This is achieved through a variety of visual media. The plethora of politicians suddenly showing an interest in industry, wearing silly outfits and placing themselves as nature’s greatest enemy by turning up at flooding sites in wellies (somewhat reminiscent of Caligula declaring war on the sea) is just one level of this ridiculous game. Cumatively this could be argued to be one massive dystopian modern art exhibition, the gallery being Britain and the impact unnervingly real.

Indeed elections are perhaps one of the most concentrated examples of human creative skill and imagination, partly due to the ambition of the artists themselves and the sheer amount of misdirection required to run a successful campaign. One of the most talented figures on the scene today is Lynton Crosby.

Crosby’s success in Australia has earned him the nickname “the Wizard of Oz”. With such a stage name, his role in the artistic world is clear. His favourite stroke technique is the ‘dead cat’ manoeuvre, a way of distracting the press into talking about a less damaging topic. His work is remarkable in the context of his position of power and the spectrum of his previous employers goes just some way to demonstrate this artist’s global dominance.

Arguably the most powerful brush in the campaign manager’s palette is visual advertising. Back in 1995, there was an exhibition in the Saatchi Gallery in London, exploring advertising as a concept – the advertising industry’s relationship with art is already well established. Speaking of the purpose of advertising itself, Crosby is reported in The Guardian to have said, “The most effective advertising is that which takes an existing perception and leverages it. Advertising is, of itself, not a very persuasive medium or a mind-changing tool. Its purpose is really to reinforce and trigger existing perceptions.” Such a description shares similarities with the motivation of much modern art. Crosby was hired by David Cameron in 2015 to run the General Election campaign and if results are anything to go by, especially given the uncertain polls in the lead up to election day, Crosby’s art cannot be doubted for its impact.

One of the most strikingly effective posters of the campaign, was an image of Ed Miliband in the pocket of Alex Salmond. This poster worked by making a powerful political debate appear self-evident. The comedic element to this piece was significant in evoking a public response. However, such an advertising campaign was not without witty backlash. The decision to put Cameron’s big shiny head on many public billboards afforded an apparently endless scope for parody (example above). 

Political advertising is a field which just gets more ambituous with time, as politicians have to find news ways to turn the electorates eyes from the truth; a task doubled in complexity with the advance of the internet. With the referendum on Europe recently announced, the future looks more artistic  than ever.

Poetry Bites: HT16 week 6

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In Paradise
by Miriam Gordis

In paradise there are lemon trees
–when life gives you lemons
squander them, let them fall, and grow white
In paradise there is only one wall
–there are fish that have gone blind
from always swimming in darkness
In paradise there is no babel
–one language for poetry
and only one word for ticket
In paradise there is no memory
–lethe wiped clean of art
of suffering and of love

Note:

This week Miriam Gordis gives a dystopian perspective of paradise, producing an unsettling picture of a familiar concept. The final line is perhaps the most uncomfortable in the poem, as the idea of no memory, while comforting, is uncanny. In the same way, with “one language”, what becomes of art? Is such simplicity beautiful, or just grotesque?

Miriam Gordis is reading French & Czech at Jesus College, Oxford. She won first place in The ISIS Magazine 2014 Fiction Competition and her work has appeared in Cherwell, Vulture Magazine, Spleen Factory, Litro Online and The Ampersand Review.

The Art of Our Time

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In the Oberkassel area of Düsseldorf’s district four, on the west side of the river Rhine, stands a rather remarkable building. It has white walls and a black roof, with numerous windows of various sizes – including a rather elegant loft extension. Indeed, if we ignore this extension and the roof terrace which sits above it, the building is reminiscent of the seminal Bauhaus building that stands a little over 300 miles to the east, in the otherwise relatively inconspicuous city of Dessau. The Düsseldorf Building, having been erected in 1907, predates the Bauhaus Dessau, and has been variously used as a lamp factory, a corset production facility, a picture frame factory, and a theatre workshop. It now houses Julia Stoschek’s eponymous collection, predominantly formed of time-based media art.

It is from this collection that the Pembroke College JCR Art Fund has been loaned three pieces of media art, currently being exhibited alongside the College’s own works in its purpose-built gallery space. The Art Fund was created in 1947 by Anthony Emery. A particularly enjoyable anecdote within its history is that in 1953 it acquired Francis Bacon’s ‘Man in a Chair’ for £150; in 1997 it was sold for £400,000. However, whilst Emery created the Fund in fear of “the ignorance of the majority about the art of their own time”, the gallery only opened its doors to the public last year. This is probably why you haven’t heard of it.

The three pieces displayed are by Elizabeth Price, Helen Marten and Ed Atkins. The exhibition seems fitting, as each artist has their own Oxford link: Price taught at the Ruskin, Marten graduated from the Ruskin, and Atkins grew up in the town. The works themselves are of rather varying quality. The Atkins piece, ‘Delivery to the Following Recipient Failed Permanently’, has none of the arresting uncanniness of his Serpentine Sackler Gallery installation. Rather, it contains only the weaknesses that seem to permeate his work more widely – a poor command of lighting and a seeming lack of eye for composition. Whereas the Serpentine installation was able to somewhat redeem these faults through the sheer strangeness of its CGI protagonist, ‘Delivery’ comes across much more like a student art fi lm – complete with abrupt cuts and rather randomly inserted screens of white and black. Even the visual language of the piece is trite: a head, facing away from us, backlit with a circular light, so as to create an angelic, halo-bordered silhouette. We have seen this imagery before, and often in better lit and composed situations.

If you are a particular fan of wholly CGI spaces and thus shudder at the thought of Atkins foregoing this medium, fear not, as Marten’s piece fills the void. It is a playful work, complete with a Greek column that both talks and has bizarrely expressive eyebrows. But it seems a little vacuous and unfulfilling, never shaking off its reminiscence to Clippy the Paperclip (Microsoft Word’s ‘intelligent user interface’ of aeons ago, remember?)

Where the other two works variously misfi re, Price’s piece succeeds. Formed largely of static shots of the interior of a modernist home, it satirises the fetishisation of personal living spaces that has occurred as a result of the rise of interior design. The lighting is cold, the composition tasteful yet wholly stereotypical. Price seems to be emphasising the distance and voyeurism inherent in the viewing of another’s living space: when text flashes up imperatively telling us to “ENTER THE HOUSE,” the shot that follows is of the doorway, but is taken from inside the house. The emphasis is that we will never really enter this home, but rather will only look on it as a sort of design pornography – something that exists only to be visually enjoyed.

In the panel discussion held immediately prior to the exhibition’s opening, Dr Elisa Schaar spoke of the need to “perform” digital works of art, as otherwise they remain merely as bits of code. For all the talk of such a performance, the three video installations are not given their own, darkened room(s), but rather are interspersed with the gallery’s own collection. This reduces their potency. I presume as a result of this choice to display them in a lightfilled room, the works are displayed on ultra- HD screens rather than projected. Resultantly, every time there is a cut to black in any of the films, one is left staring at one’s own reflection – a rather strange and unsettling experience. In terms of sound, each video has two headphones, though the headphones on Atkins’s piece were broken during the opening, forcing the audio of the work to be played out loud and thus be drowned out by the hubbub of the gallery goers. Of course there are always going to be teething problems, but for an exhibition that is running for less than a month and only for two hours on two days of the week, every moment of mishap is costly.

That said, Pembroke is doing something admirable here. Its collection is a first for Oxford colleges, and the decision to open its doors to the public is commendable. Whilst the exhibition is by no means perfect, by bringing works from Düsseldorf to Oxford, Pembroke is providing a public service not only to Oxford students, but the community more widely. Give them the thanks they deserve and take a half hour out of your day to pay the exhibition a visit – it’s worth it.

Preview: The Marriage of Kim K

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The title of this Mozart adaptation implies a superficial superimposing of contemporary culture on to the classic canonical opera – a possible nightmare example of lip service to modernity. However, this is decidedly not superficial. Placing layer upon layer, a modern couple are debating whether to watch the Marriage of Figaro or Keeping Up With The Kardashians. What ensues is a tri-partite comic analysis of marriage through analysing the Count and Countess of the original, Chris Humphries and Kim Kardashian and the earlier mentioned fictional couple; concluding that it is not an institution that works for all. And the character of Figaro watches over all, becoming a Tiresias-type figure who impartially sees the events of the three plotlines which all begin to intertwine; while contemplating his own coming marriage.                           

The music will vary – the original score will be preserved for the Count and Countess, while the other plotlines have variations on this, including synths and even a new pop song performed by Figaro. The operatic voices were universally strong and the acting likewise impressive. Although conceptually complex, the songs maintain interest in the opera through the novelty of hearing the classic melodies given new comic lyrics, and avoids being sunk by the possible pretentiousness of the concept by successfully fusing elements traditionally associated with both high and low culture in an accessible and funny piece of pop art.

In short, this reviewer feels optimistic about this piece. It was surprisingly thoughtful for a piece which threatened intellectual complexity and snobbery; and manages to balance the fine line between being faithful to the original and showing creative innovation to keep up with the times. This is a bold show that looks to be another fine example of adapting Mozart’s classic comic operas.

Review: The Somme Battlefield — The top 20 places to visit

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With The Somme Battlefield: The Top 20 Places to Visit, former soldier Ruaraidh Adams-Cairns offers us something quite different to an ordinary battlefield guide, thanks to the inclusion of both factual information, and moving personal testimonies. Adams-Cairns attributes this interest in the individual experience of war to having listened to the historian David Rattray, who placed deliberate emphasis on the personal experiences of those involved in the conflict. It is this attention to how soldiers responded to astoundingly brutal circumstances that makes the guide so particularly gripping.

It is, after all, easy to become overwhelmed by the staggering scale of suffering wrought by the five gruelling months of warfare that made up The Battle of the Somme. As Adams-Cairns reminds us in his introductory ‘Background to the Battle’ section, roughly 200,000 British and Commonwealth lives were lost in an offensive intended to last only seven days. Should you find the sheer scale of destruction understandably difficult to get your head around, however, Adams-Cairns never allows his focus to remain too wide, nor too impersonal. After laying out the battle in broad, factual terms, we then move onto the twenty sites that make up the author’s tour of the battlefield. Accompanying each place are the often harrowing recollections of those soldiers who had the terrible misfortune of participating in the battle, adding fresh, urgent poignancy to the vast human cost.

Personal testimonies not only lend a suitably sorrowful tone to the guide, but also remind us of just how extraordinarily soldiers reacted to unthinkable conditions. Adams-Cairns names the story of the Reverend Theodore Hardy as his favourite, and it this account of such an unlikely war hero that adds some colour to a bleak, if compelling picture of the battle. Serving as an army Chaplain, Hardy was a quiet and unassuming figure who initially attracted little attention. However his utter fearlessness eventually earned him the moniker ‘The Unkillable One’ and Hardy was even appointed Chaplain to the King for his valour. The picture Adam-Cairns gives us of this remarkable man is a touching one; Hardy would take sweets and cigarettes up to his men, distinguished by the catchphrase ‘It’s only me!’ Hardy may not have survived the war, but his exceptional time at the Front is a fitting reminder that personal courage and compassion were able to endure, in spite of the horrors of the trenches.

If, like me, you are a reader with relatively little understanding of the Somme, it may seem easy to focus your attention almost entirely on the personal side to the work. Engaging with stories of human courage requires no specialist knowledge. Yet the guide also presents an accessible overview of the main events that happened at each site, and which clearly benefits from the author’s military background; before working for Savills, Adams-Cairns was commissioned into the Queen’s Own Highlanders. If you should find yourself among the surprisingly pristine fields of the Somme battlefield, then you can do far worse than to have this particular guide tucked under your arm.

Cambridge goes to the wall in squash Varsity

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The Oxford University Squash Racquets club (OUSRC) Men’s and Women’s Blues claimed an emphatic 5-0 victory at the 2016 Varsity Squash Matches – the first time this feat has been accomplished in the club’s 91-year history.

The Dark Blues faced the Tabs for their annual showdown at The Royal Automobile Club, often billed as ‘The Home of Squash.’ The club features some of the warmest and most humid courts in the country, adding a further dynamic to an already intense setting, with a strong force of rivalling alumni and spectators cheering and hurling abuse from the balconies above three sides of the courts.

Retaining all five Blues from 2015, the Oxford women hoped to regain the crown from their Tab counterparts. In the first two matches, the reserve Anna Gibson (Exeter) and fifth string Kiki Warren (Balliol) were too strong for both of their opponents. Unfortunately, though, they won so convincingly that their matches had finished before a number of spectators had even arrived at the club! It was then the turn of the third and fourth strings, fresher Samantha Phey (Jesus) and the less fresh and rather more experienced Eleanor Law (New) respectively, to take to the courts. Samantha was again far too strong for her opponent, winning 3-0 comfortably, whilst Eleanor’s game proved much closer, although the 3-0 scoreline suggested otherwise. Second string Alysia Garmulewicz (GTC) and first string Emily Peach (Magdalen) were both competing in their final Varsity matches before graduating this year. Alysia lost the first game, but her fitness on the RAC courts paid dividends, wearing out her opponent to win 3-1. Captain Peach faced a gruelling 57-minute 3-1 victory against the Cam- bridge number one, including two games that went down to the wire (10-9.) This win earned an emphatic 5-0 victory for the Dark Blues as well the Women’s Performance of the Match for the Oxford captain.

After last year’s narrow 3-2 Varsity victory, the Oxford men were hungry for more success, particularly given that they retained all 2015 Blues apart from the number one, who was fortunately replaced by a player of similar calibre in the world-ranked Phil Nightingale (Wycliffe Hall). The Blues entered the match in fine form, having dropping only six of 200 points in BUCS, and secured promotion to the Premier League the previous Wednesday with a 4-1 win over Sheffield.

Playing in the reserve string, Club President Andrew Lindsay (Jesus) appeared to have drawn the short straw in the opposition. He was facing the Cambridge captain, only not in the top five due to injury, who proved a confident and skilled opponent, showing no sign of his apparent injury. Despite some solid squash, Andrew fell 0-3, complaining about his own injuries as usual. Meanwhile, Jimmy Cetkovski (New) was up at five. With some sage advice from his teammates in between games,Jimmy sharpened up to control the game with some quality squash, taking a 3-1 win and justly earning himself Man of the Match. He also achieved a ‘bagel’ (where the opponent gets no points) in the third game.

Men’s Captain Tom Paine (Oriel) played at four. Numerous stoppages from a broken ball, then a lost ball and his bleeding opponent, ensured the crowd got their money’s worth. Tom took a 3-0 win after over an hour of play, the longest match of the day (although this may have been down to the interruptions).

Returning for his fourth Varsity, Owen Riddall (Brasenose) was tasked with putting the tie beyond Cambridge’s reach at number three. Despite the questionable decision to take a pre-match lunch, Owen seemed fuelled up and energetic enough to wear down his opponent over four brutal games before crushing the exhausted Tab in a comfortable fifth. His 3-2 win sealed the Oxford victory and ensured the trophy would return home with the Dark Blues.

Alex Roberts (Merton) played in the second string after showing solid and substantial improvement for yet another season. It was fitting to see him take a commanding and quick 3-0 win over his Light Blue counterpart. Finally, the team’s newest member Phil Nightingale – an undergraduate fresher at 33 – played at number one. Trash talking from Phil’s opponent on OUSRC’s Facebook page led to calls from Oxford’s President to “make this bot cry”. The team were very disappointed with our 6’5” pro, who failed to do this. He did claim, however , a crushing 3-0 victory, including a ‘bagel’ in the 2nd game,limiting his opponent to a handful of points. This meant that for the first time in Varsity history, a side claimed a clean sweep of Varsity victories (10-0).

Many thanks from the club go to all players, families, alumni and supproters who made it such a special experience and a wonderful finish to one of the most successful seasons in the club’s near history.

To sum up with a quote from Alex Roberts, “It’s fair to say some Tabs got shoe-ed”.

Tabs spiked and shoed

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Last Saturday, the Oxford Volleyball Club Men’s and Women’s 1s smashed their way to Varsity victory at Iffley at the annual Volleyball Varsity. Oxford retained the Champion title, following an away win last year at Cambridge. The Men’s 2s snatched back their title from the Light Blues after a game of straight sets, while the women’s 2s unfortunately conceded to a strong defensive Cambridge W2 after three sets.

M1 played some ferocious volleyball and conceded only a single set against a team ranked higher in the division than them, a continuation of the team’s winning streak stretching back to February last year at BUCS finals. The opening set saw a nervous start from both sides, but a rhythm quickly established with Oxford in the lead. Although play slipped briefly with some scrappy rallies to concede a tight set to Cambridge, it only acted to prolong the enjoyment for the watchers as Oxford pummelled their way to fourth set victory. Jonas Pollex, the team’s captain, commented, “The entire team performed when it mattered and we were carried by the fantastic atmosphere surrounding the game – we would like to thank everyone who came to Iffley to contribute to such a memorable experience.”

The women’s game was characterised by accuracy and precision. The Dark Blues orchestrated a straight-set win in a fashion reminiscent of a choreographed routine. The Oxford Women 1s have won two years in a row after just losing 3-2 in a thrilling match two years ago in the last home Varsity. Although Cambridge pushed off to a few points’ lead in the first set, Oxford ramped up its front court offence to match. Cambridge played with a very strong defensive game, but Oxford’s persistent attacks pushed them over the edge for an exhilarating close win in the first two sets. The start of the third set saw Oxford pull away, and their determination pushed them to win the final set in just over 20 minutes as the Cambridge defence crumbled into scattered play.

M2 has won three out of four of its last Varsities, and after last year’s loss to Cambridge, M2 arrived at Iffley hungry for Varsity revenge. The game was riddled with clever offence and a strong front court attack that left Cambridge in Oxford’s wake with a straight set washout. M2 has had a very successful season, working hard on building a balanced competitive team; it has paid off, finishing at the Student Cup ranked 20th in the country, and placed highest of any university men’s second team competing. Riding high after Varsity success, the team now buckles down for the coming months, with their sights set on promotion to the first division in the local Berkshire Volleyball Associa- tion league.

The women’s 2s have found themselves in a Varsity rut for the past three years, and while hopes were high for this year’s Varsity with an experienced team on the line-out, the Cambridge team proved worthy opponents, winning in straight sets.

With success at Varsity all round, the club turns towards the finals of BUCS and local league play-offs with hope that the rest of the season continues in a similar vein. Further ahead, the Intercollegiate League and the very popular four Max Cuppers games in University Parks next term provide the perfect opportunity for the University community at large to get involved in the growing volleyball scene.

Ten years of Israeli Apartheid Week at Oxford

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These days, it feels like an Oxford institution. Every year towards the end of Hilary term, lecture halls and rooms across the University’s colleges and departments fill with people at the arrival of Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week (IAW). Now entering its tenth year, organisers are hosting this anniversary with a commemorative poster featuring the names of past speakers. They include illustrious international authorities like UN Special Rapporteur of Human Rights Professor John Dugard, world-renowned academics like Jacqueline Rose and Columbia’s Joseph Massad and vaunted figures in culture and the arts such as the leading Israeli poet Yithak Laor and the celebrated Syrian poet Kamal Abu Deeb. It has regularly brought together Palestinians and Israelis, Jews and Arabs, along with figures from across the world under a shared opposition to Israeli violations of Palestinian human rights. Welcoming experts from such diverse fields to our university every year ensures that Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week has raised the nature, and the quality of debate. Above all, it has helped to bring a discussion of ongoing injustices, and much needed solutions to the conflict, to the heart of the University.

Its name evokes the struggle against South African apartheid, and has been endorsed by the African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s anti-apartheid liberation movement. Keen to stress the connections between the anti-racist freedom struggles of the South African and Palestinian peoples, Oxford IAW has had the honour of hosting legends of the South African struggle to Oxford. Ronnie Kasrils, first the Head of Intelligence for the ANC at the height of the struggle against apartheid, and who went on to be a minister in Nelson Mandela’s government, is one past speaker. Last year, Exam Schools was filled with over 250 people as Oxford’s Sudhir Hazareesingh introduced Denis Goldberg, the South African freedom fighter tried alongside Mandela and, like him, imprisoned for decades. Like Kasrils, Goldberg spoke movingly about the parallels he sees between apartheid in South Africa and in Palestine. He echoed the Palestinian call for Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against Israel, drawing a parallel with the successful sanctions campaign against apartheid South Africa.

The internationally respected Israeli historian Avi Shlaim, who teaches at Oxford and is appearing at this year’s Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week commented: “Whereas ten years ago the word ‘apartheid’ was seen as controversial and provocative by some, today it is widely accepted as an accurate description of Israeli policies on the ground”. He explains how Israel’s claim to democratic virtues is fatally undermined by its military occupation of two million Palestinians in the West Bank, where only Jewish settlers have the legal right to vote and to live under a rule of law that protects their human and other rights. Another two million Palestinians in Gaza live under an Israeli siege which limits access to crucial food, electricity and medical supplies, and the millions of refugees living in forced exile outside of their homes in Palestine, denied their legal right to return. As Professor Jacqueline Rose reminded me, “the felt link between the injustice of apartheid and the continuing Israeli occupation in Palestine is real enough, and has been endorsed by figures such as Desmond Tutu, who described the situation in Palestine as worse than that in apartheid South Africa.”

Of course, Israel’s Gaza blockade and its West Bank mlitary occupation are both illegal under international law and have been condemned in decades of UN resolutions. Together, they form the most obvious manifestation of Israeli apartheid, the crime defined in international law as inhumane acts “committed in the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime.” Israel denies Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza the human rights it gives to Jewish West Bank settlers simply because of their ethnic origin; the child killed in an Israeli airstrike over Gaza or denied proper schooling in the West Bank is punished for no reason other than that she is Palestinian, all to maintain Israeli control over Palestinian lives. Inside Israel, more than 50 laws cement the institutional discrimination against Palestinians best symbolised by the Law of Return, which gives any Jew in the world the right to live in Israel, and the Absentee Property Law which forbids Palestinians expelled and dispossessed in 1948 from returning to exercise that same right. International law professors and UN human rights Rapporteurs John Dugard and Richard Falk,  along with the veterans of South Africa’s freedom fight have described these practices: Israel is an apartheid state.

Scholars and activists have taken the time to carefully establish that truth with a wealth of empirical evidence and publications. Ilan Pappe, perhaps Israel’s most prominent living historian, has participated in Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week since its inception, and described to me how universities have provided the place for much needed discussion and debate on Palestine.

The campaign for BDS has now become a global movement, and Israeli Apartheid Week has spread to cities across the world. Although Israel’s colonial occupation continues, the international opposition to it also continues to grow. Ilan Pappe highlights the critical role Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week has played in helping to introduce the “concept of apartheid Israel to the scholarly research agenda”. Avi Shlaim agrees; having also supported Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week since its earliest days, he is keen to point out the “high level of debate at its events, and its contribution to the intellectual life of the University”.

Academic contribution is important, but Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week does a great deal more. The dream of a free Palestine with equal rights for all its inhabitants remains unfulfilled. As Ilan Pappe explains, every year Oxford Israeli Apartheid Week “galvanises active solidarity with the Palestinians”, and that is surely its more important contribution. Its organisers, speakers and attendees have, he says, “kept the issue of Palestine alive in Oxford”.   

Brexit to divide more than an ever-closer union

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So it begins; yet it is hard to shake the feeling that last Sunday’s referendum announcement was an anticlimax. We knew that a referendum was coming, that the Prime Minister would support the EU, and that he would accept whatever deal emerged from the renegotiation process – in the end a workmanlike but uninspiring package of minor changes to, or rhetorical restatements of, EU policy. Perhaps this apathy represents the fact that the announcement marks only the closing stage of a single phase in the EU argument; one that has rolled onwards since Wilson’s failed bid in 1963, and will endure well after even a successful referendum result. But although the announcement of the referendum’s date does little to sharpen the time-worn arguments of both sides, it does force the judgment of the British public itself into the open, compelling us to confront the fateful question: could Britain really leave the EU?

At this stage the polls appear to be of little use. With averages of the latest six (as of 16th February) showing the ‘yes’ camp with a tiny majority of 51 per cent amongst those willing to declare an opinion, and a significant percentage of the population still undecided, opinion is on a knife edge. Even if a clearer lead were established, the twists and turns of four months of campaigns, and the contingencies of events, mean their predictive power is dubious at best. To make such a prediction, however tenuous, we therefore need to assess the strength of each side’s institutional support and the favourability of the political terrain for their messages.

Three crucial power groups will influence the likely trajectory of the referendum: business, the media and the parties themselves. The first group is the most strongly pro- European, for the obvious reasons concerning ease of international trade and investment. The CBI, as well as a plethora of major business leaders, is firmly behind the ‘in’ campaign. Some companies are wary of engaging in the debate for fear of backlash from Leave-voting consumers; however, the overwhelming message from business is pro-European. The Unions are also likely to support the EU; for instance, the GMB recently declared it was backing the Remain campaign.

By contrast, the media will be more Eurosceptic. The circulation of newspapers leaning towards Leave, such as the Times, Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express, stands at over 4.2 million, compared to just over 1.6 million for Remain-leaning counterparts like the Guardian and Mirror. This print media imbalance should not be over-emphasised. Papers like the Telegraph, although Eurosceptic and largely dismissive of the EU deal, may yet fall into the Remain camp as time progresses. Furthermore, television and online coverage will act as a counterbalance to newspaper influence.

The parties themselves are more split, but generally favour the EU. The Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru and SNP are all firmly pro-European. Corbyn may be an unenthusiastic Europhile but he has committed his own – considerably more enthusiastic – party to the Remain camp. The Conservatives are split down the middle. Cameron and the majority of his Cabinet will support remaining in the EU, with the most notable exceptions being Boris, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Gove. The Conservative parliamentary party will also lean towards Europe, with surveys suggesting a 186/144 split in favour of the Union. However, the grassroots are strongly Eurosceptic and, although CCHQ itself is adopting a neutral stance, Conservative constituency organisations and activists will be a major force for Leave, both in direct campaigning and in pressuring their MPs. Finally, the DUP and UKIP will be predictably backing Leave.

The overall balance of forces is tilted in favour of the Remain camp; possible media Euroscepticism is outweighed by widespread business and party political support for Europe. But equally important is the nature of the issues and psychological factors surrounding the referendum.

With respect to the key issues, the Leave and Remain camps are relatively balanced. On the one hand, immigration is the issue most widely regarded as important by the British public (with 46 per cent perceiving it as such in the most recent Economist/Ipsos MORI issues index), and most easily exploitable by the Leave campaign. On the other, both the economy and defence are seen as highly important, and could likely be made more important still through strong campaigning.

Thus Brexit, whilst far from implausible, is unlikely. The Remain campaign holds the influence and organisational capacity of the majority of politicians and activists, the support of the business and international community, argumentative advantages in the key areas of defence and economics and, finally, the potent attraction of the status quo. By contrast, the Leave campaign depends on a broadly Eurosceptic print media, the issue of immigration, one party that most people dislike and the fractured base of another. But even though the pitch slopes towards the Eurosceptic’s goalposts, four months lie between us and the referendum, and there is still everything to play for. May the best campaign win. 

Unheard Oxford: Ferhat Engin, barman at St. Catz

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I walk into Catz JCR bar. It is a busy Monday night – indeed, a quiz night is about to start. The innovative Grade I-listed, vintage 60s, minimalist creation of Arne Jacobsen beckons with its stylish combination of concrete and wood panelling. This isn’t your typical Oxford college bar. No ancient stone or bland modern construction is in sight. The place is pretty hip.

I am here to interview Ferhat Engin, Catz JCR barman of 11 years who has recently been nominated for ‘JCR Ruler’ at this year’s Acatzemy Awards. Being in contact nearly every evening with hundreds of students at Oxford’s most populous undergraduate college, he is a very well-known and very well-liked figure in Catz life.

Someone in his position has the opportunity to develop a number of unique, interesting, and well-informed insights into the everyday lives of Oxford students.

To begin with, I ask him what the most popular orders are in Catz JCR bar. I am also keen to know some of the more unusual and potentially frivolous orders he has received during his time at the College.

He tells me, “Cider & black and vodka & mixer are the most ordered drinks for sure”. 

“Sometimes we get students who want to experiment and create their own drinks”, he adds. He informs me that there once was a student “who used to drink Smirnoff ice, Ginger Joe, and a shot of Chambord all mixed together.” Stunned by the randomness of such an order, I ask him what the student named such a concoction. 

However, he refuses to tell me the name as the student “gave it a very rude name which I should keep to myself”. Before I can order one, Ferhat informs me that the drink “was too sweet and disgusting!”

Moving on, I ask him what he thinks of his clientele. I am eager to discover what he talks to them about, and cheekily I ask him if he has any favourites. He tells me that he “loves the people at Catz.”

“I think I’m very lucky to be surrounded by so many interesting people. You meet new people every year from all around. We talk about lots of things: their coursework, personal lives, sometimes silly things.” 

He declines to name any of his favourites, but he does admit to having some. Perhaps, I wonder; just maybe I am not one of them. To finish with, I ask him about his views on Entz in the College. He tells me, “Entz are fun!”

Ferhat believes that it is up to the students to make them a success. Catz JCR has Entz reps, but Ferhat feels that people shouldn’t expect them to have to do all of the work to make things fun.

Indeed, he feels that sometimes only a few people join in with the pre-Entz activities. “It seems to me people prefer staying in their rooms and drink with a few of their mates rather than coming down to the JCR to create a party atmosphere,” he muses.