On 17th January 2012, as the western world basked in self-congratulation over the Arab Spring, violence broke out in Northern Mali. By April a variety of rebel armed groups controlled most of the North, declaring it an independent state of Assawad. Yet this little commented upon event is not some afterthought to the Arab Spring, but a profound and long term challenge to Saharan and Western security. Not only does it have the potential to become more general Saharan unrest, but among the armed groups active in Northern Mali are Ansar Dine, MOJWA, AQIM and Boko Haram, all stated Islamist groups with links to Al Qaeda. The crisis in Mali has the potential to become a significant threat in the region and to the UK.
The roots of this crisis are to be found in the decolonisation of the Sahara through the 1960s. As North and West Africa were partitioned into sovereign states, the nomadic Tuareg people found themselves divided between Algeria, Niger, Burkina, Libya and Mali. Nomads became minorities in new states and found themselves marginalised from political life and unable to move freely across borders. These dissatisfactions were expressed by prolonged periods of uprising affecting several Sahel states throughout the 20th Century. Tuaregs and other ethnic groups have taken this opportunity to assert demands for an independent state. Contagion is a real possibility, with common Saharan dissatisfaction shared across borders and between ethnic groups, meaning this unrest could well snowball to neighbouring states.
The development of a rebel movement, with Islamist and Saharan elements, represents a substantial threat to the security of a number of West African states, including Niger, Chad, Burkina, Algeria, Libya and Nigeria. Consequently ECOWAS, a regional political union, has been active in pushing for an international intervention to retake the territory as quickly as possible, reducing the threat of the rebellion spreading to other territories. These calls have been mandated by the UN security council, with promises of logistical and political support from both France and the USA. However messages have been contradictory about the degree of commitment for the various partners, with Algeria dragging its heels and substantial concerns over the quality of Nigerian and Malian troops earmarked for a possible counter offensive.
However this rebellion is threatening beyond the Saharan region. While a Tuareg rebellion, intent on developing a Saharan state, would have profound regional security implications, the growing strength of militant Islamist groups provides the real global threat. The secessionist movement, the MNLA, has clashed repeatedly with Islamist groups such as Ansar Dine and MOJWA in North Mali. Iyad Ag Ghaly, a skilled and pragmatic leader, has united these Islamist groups, gaining the upper hand over the MNLA. The spread of this rebellion across the Sahara potentially creates a vast stateless area, with considerable access to supplies and arms for Islamist militants with consequent security implications.
While the downfall of Gadaffi has removed the nomads’ most potent political ally, the turmoil across North Africa has allowed access to a wide range of weaponry and experienced military personnel from other theatres of conflict. Despite ongoing uncertainty over the degree of unity among the Islamists, if history is any guide, these secession movements will be difficult to extinguish. The prospect of a prolonged conflict in the Sahara not only raises the possibility of a humanitarian crisis in an already resource stressed area, but an enhanced chances that Western powers will be involved. A combination of weak local armies, kidnapping of hostages and the need for air power to control the desert make some form of Western involvement increasingly likely. Secession in Northern Mali therefore provides the possibility of a widening Saharan conflict, creating an open stateless space with significant access to arms, and as such representing a significant security concern. With current commitments in Afghanistan winding down, it is possible that Britain will find itself facing another spate of terrorist activity and military entanglement in the Sahara.