Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Blog Page 1758

5 Minute Tute- The Eurozone Crisis

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Can you see the Euro surviving beyond this crisis?

A year ago I was saying the Euro might not survive but I thought it was very, very likely that it would. The debate has changed now. Partly, Eurozone leaders have broken a taboo by suggesting that Greece might leave. Partly there is the sense that voters in places such as Germany simply won’t back governments who do what it takes to keep the Euro together. I still expect the Euro to survive but it’s easier and easier to imagine that it will not.

What would be the consequences of Greece being forced to leave the Eurozone?

Some years ago we economists might have been quite sanguine about the idea: it would mean a Greek devaluation, which would make Greek exports more competitive and discourage imports, and so create room for the Greek economy to grow – a kind of cut-price sale for all Greek goods and services. The recent history of Argentina points to this kind of experience. But now we’ve learned the hard way how much the details of the banking system matter. The threat of Greek exit is already crippling Greek banks. The reason is that nobody wants to hold euros inside Greece – with the threat of devaluation – when they could be holding them in Germany instead. A Greek Eurozone exit would be extremely painful for Greece and for the broader Eurozone as a whole.

How likely is that to happen?

It’s clearly quite possible now. This is less about the debt – Greece’s debt cannot be repaid and a Eurozone exit could not change that – and more about Greece’s lack of competitiveness without a devaluation. Ireland has managed to cut wages and prices without a devaluation, but it’s tough to do so, as anyone in Ireland will tell you.

Are any other countries likely to be forced to leave the Eurozone?

 

You’re asking an economist to make a forecast! History should tell you we’re pretty bad at that. Each exit makes a subsequent exit easier to imagine, which adds to these silent bank runs away from periphery banks. It could all become self-fulfilling.

You’re asking an economist to make a forecast! History should tell you we’re pretty bad at that. Each exit makes a subsequent exit easier to imagine, which adds to these silent bank runs away from periphery banks. It could all become self-fulfilling.

Why do people talk about a ‘tipping point’ in the sovereign debt crisis?

When a country such as Italy wants to borrow money it does so by issuing bonds, which are a tradable IOU, a promise to pay a certain sum of money on a certain date. The price of those bonds, obviously, will depend on how likely investors feel they are to be paid. If Italy seems like a risky prospect then the price of its bonds will fall and the implicit interest rate charged when it issues new bonds will rise. But here’s the tricky thing: the risk that investors will not be repaid is intimately bound up with the price of those bonds, and therefore the interest rate. It’s perfectly possible that there are two equilibria: one in which interest rates are low, and rightly so because the money can be repaid; a second one in which bond prices fall (and so interest rates are very high), and  rightly so because investors are unlikely to be properly repaid. Both equilibria are internally consistent, but one’s good news and one is a disaster. The tipping point is about moving from the good equilibrium to the bad one, as Italy seems to have done.

Tim Harford writes the “Undercover Economist” column for the  Financial Times and presents BBC Radio 4’s More or Less. His latest book is  Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure.

The continued importance of the Poppy Appeal

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I am always gratified at this time of year when I see the sheer volume of people, both young and old alike, who are sporting a poppy on their lapels. Over 90 years after the idea was first conceived, the Poppy Appeal is one of the few charitable events that regularly captures the nation’s attention. Unlike others, such as Red Nose Day, it does so without television marathons and celebrity endorsements.

I am always gratified at this time of year when I see the sheer volume of people, both young and old alike, who are sporting a poppy on their lapels. Over 90 years after the idea was first conceived, the Poppy Appeal is one of the few charitable events that regularly captures the nation’s attention. Unlike others, such as Red Nose Day, it does so without television marathons and celebrity endorsements.
Poppies were originally worn in the aftermath of the First World War, which claimed the lives of 800,000 British soldiers alone. Indeed the Poppy Appeal and Remembrance Day can be said to have helped keep alive the enormous fascination and horror the conflict still holds in this country’s psyche today. From programmes like Downton Abbey drawing in millions of viewers, to the growing interest amongst people in the wartime service of their ancestors, the First World War continues to fascinate and repel. 
It is only right that its appalling horrors and vast slaughter are commemorated afresh each year; the scale of the sacrifice reflected in the swathes of poppies that flood our streets is a  ready reminder for a new generation of the futility of war. However, crucial to the poppies’ continuing success is the sad fact of their renewed relevance each year, as fresh blood is spilled in the name of the United Kingdom and elsewhere in different conflicts around the world. As we go about our everyday lives, it is all too easy to forget that people are fighting and dying in our names, whether we like it or not. While war and its terrors may seem a distant prospect to most of us, to all too many people around the world it is an all pervasive reality. 
Remembrance Day and the Poppy Appeal, and the build up to it, is the one time of the year where we as a society really stop and think about the sacrifices made by countless people for us to enjoy the world we do today. It gives us an opportunity to think about how war has shaped Britain, and in a society where negative images of young people are prevalent, it provides a chance to focus on young people who did their duty and are worthy of our total respect. Life is given to war memorials that stand unnoticed and unadorned in many places for much of the year, as they receive the attention they deserve.
  November 11th also provides a chance to reflect on the futility of war. All the young men and women who lost their lives prematurely,deserve not only our respect but also for us to learn the lessons of their deaths. Remembrance Day reminds us of war in all its destructive potential; of how it should only ever be a last resort.
Most importantly of all, the Poppy Appeal and Remembrance Sunday make sure that we us a society never forget. It makes sure we honour the promise made in Binyon’s famous poem, that ‘We Will Remember Them’.

Poppies were originally worn in the aftermath of the First World War, which claimed the lives of 800,000 British soldiers alone. Indeed the Poppy Appeal and Remembrance Day can be said to have helped keep alive the enormous fascination and horror the conflict still holds in this country’s psyche today. From programmes like Downton Abbey drawing in millions of viewers, to the growing interest amongst people in the wartime service of their ancestors, the First World War continues to fascinate and repel. 

It is only right that its appalling horrors and vast slaughter are commemorated afresh each year; the scale of the sacrifice reflected in the swathes of poppies that flood our streets is a  ready reminder for a new generation of the futility of war. However, crucial to the poppies’ continuing success is the sad fact of their renewed relevance each year, as fresh blood is spilled in the name of the United Kingdom and elsewhere in different conflicts around the world. As we go about our everyday lives, it is all too easy to forget that people are fighting and dying in our names, whether we like it or not. While war and its terrors may seem a distant prospect to most of us, to all too many people around the world it is an all pervasive reality. 

Remembrance Day and the Poppy Appeal, and the build up to it, is the one time of the year where we as a society really stop and think about the sacrifices made by countless people for us to enjoy the world we do today. It gives us an opportunity to think about how war has shaped Britain, and in a society where negative images of young people are prevalent, it provides a chance to focus on young people who did their duty and are worthy of our total respect. Life is given to war memorials that stand unnoticed and unadorned in many places for much of the year, as they receive the attention they deserve. 

November 11th also provides a chance to reflect on the futility of war. All the young men and women who lost their lives prematurely, deserve not only our respect but also for us to learn the lessons of their deaths. Remembrance Day reminds us of war in all its destructive potential; of how it should only ever be a last resort.

Most importantly of all, the Poppy Appeal and Remembrance Sunday make sure that we us a society never forget. It makes sure we honour the promise made in Binyon’s famous poem, that ‘We Will Remember Them’.

Review: The Fall – Ersatz GB

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This is The Fall’s 28th studio album so it’s pretty much a miracle the only constant driving force behind the band, Mark E Smith , is producing anything at all that’s creative. Given how many bands descend into mediocrity somewhere around album two or three and spend the rest of their careers filling dingy student unions, enticing people in to buy overpriced cider on the strength of a single decent song anything original is a relief. To be fair, it was unlikely The Fall were ever going to do this. Ersatz GB continues in much the same vein as their last album Your Future Our Clutter – moving forwards with little regard for the line of younger bands running along trying to catch up.

Having already influenced everyone from Nirvana and Sonic Youth to Franz Ferdinand and The Horrors, The Fall are going to continue to inspire with this latest effort. Mediocrity is certainly not present anywhere in this album. Chaos, however, is alive and well. Ten whole glorious tracks of said chaos is pretty much what you get served up here, just about tied down to earth with some solid drumming and bass riffs – but only just. The band, for once, sound pretty tight behind Smith. Right from opener ‘Cosmos 7’ through to the distorted guitar of closing track ‘Age Of Chang’, The Fall aren’t far short of their discordant best. Mark E Smith continues to growl lyrics in a slightly demented way over discordant tunes. The lyrics are as enigmatic as ever: covering everything from Bonjela (‘Taking Off’) to Gossip Girl (‘Nate Will Not Return’) and often not making much sense at all. This is symptomatic of the whole album though; it all requires a second listen, it’s all music that’s interesting and is going to stay interesting. It’s a fresh breath of air among the standard bilge that is, shamefully, so much more popular – ‘I’m so sick of Snow Patrol’ claims Smith, and this couldn’t be a better antidote. If you want to cleanse your mind of the recent Snow Patrol/Coldplay/*insert generic band name here*, turn up the track ‘Greenaway’, sit back, and let the madness cleanse your mind of the drudgery. 

Welcome to the (very Tory) jungle

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There is a rather cynical air wavering off Michael Heseltine as I meet him in his large if spartan office at Haymarket publishers. Famously known as Thatcher’s nemesis, he nearly succeeded the Iron Lady in 1990, and there is still a decidedly Prime Ministerial whiff about him. He oozes confidence. In spite of myself, I’m quite impressed.

There is a rather cynical air wavering off Michael Heseltine as I meet him in his large if Spartan office at Haymarket publishers. Famously known as Thatcher’s nemesis, he nearly succeeded the Iron Lady in 1990, and there is still a decidedly Prime Ministerial whiff about him. He oozes confidence. In spite of myself, I’m quite impressed.
At Oxford Heseltine was an absolutely massive hack. There is a magnificent story about how as an undergraduate Heseltine jauntily wrote his career down on the back of an envelope: ‘Millionaire 25, Cabinet Minister 35, party leader 45, Prime Minister 55.’ Heseltine denies this. ‘I don’t remember it, I think it’s out of character. I don’t think I would have planned my life so meticulously, and I don’t think I was confident enough to believe that it would ever work out in that way.’
But he doesn’t deny the importance of learning how to arbitrarily acrue power even at university. ‘It’s an invaluable stepping stone. I mean, my first day as an undergraduate in Oxford I joined the Union, OUCA, and the University City Association. So it was quite obvious what my interests were and where my ambitions lay in my first day as an undergraduate. I treasure the memories.’ Did it teach him to be a politician? A chortle. ‘I suppose you learn the rough and tumble, the need to create alliances, the need to make a judgment, the ability to make your mind up on issues, the ability to stand up and speak to persuade people that you have merit and that therefore they should support you. Yes, without any doubt it was the most formative part of my early life.’ 
And like any hack worth the name he was heavily involved in Cherwell. Indeed his enormous top floor office is – ha, of course – directly descended from his days as a Cherwell director.  ‘My friend asked me to become a director of the newspaper, which I did, and that’s how I became involved as a publisher, albeit fairly remotely.’ He sort of gestures a bit towards the London power-skyline.
Enough of this self-indulgent prattle. Heseltine is much more interesting for what he says about Europe, his Big Thing. He denies euroscepticism is even possible in a party of government: ‘The fact is that when you get involved in active politics and you have to make the lonely decisions about British self-interest, you can’t escape the questions about British sovereignty that have been woven together for the past thousand years. It’s not like in opposition. You have the president or the chancellor on the phone, and you have to do business with them. So it’s an interwoven relationship from which there is no escape. And shouldn’t be.’
Not surprisingly, when Heseltine was going for gold against Thatcher it was Europe that was the canyon between them. That and their unbelievable egos.
But what really strikes me about Heseltine is his complete lack of ideological charisma. He doesn’t pretend he believes in that much. Europe, yes. Free markets, double yes. But apart from that? I’m not convinced. Not that this is actually bad, because he doesn’t pretend otherwise; he doesn’t pretend he wants the world to be that different to how it is now. When I put this to him it conjures a very long pause. Then he says, ‘Do you have to have an ideology to drive you? I think you could have an ambition to play a role in the conduct of affairs. You could have a certain set of values and a set of convictions as to how society should evolve based on your own morality, on your own convictions, on an understanding of history, on the relative opportunities of the underprivileged, the obligations of power. And if they all add up to an ideology then so be it. But it would be – a friend of mine from Oxford once said to me, ‘Politics is where you play on the wider stage’. And I think that says it all really. It’s so stimulating, so exciting, so potentially of value that once you’ve tasted there’s nothing like it.’ 
Mostly in it for the chase then it seems. Hmm. Interesting. That would explain a lot about his Oxford days. In fact he makes a very pregnant remark about this. The feeling at the top – of being Deputy Prime Minister, say – is apparently not much more brilliant than the feeling of winning an election to be President of the Union. ‘I mean a human being is capable only of certain degrees of feeling. I think it’s a fair point to make. The excitement of the summer of 1954 when I was 21, at the possibility of becoming President of the Oxford Union – I suppose in November of 1990 there was a similar feeling of exhilaration and opportunity. I think that you make a good point to ask about the comparison between the two.’ 
Well. What can I say. But being in power, says Heseltine, is not something you notice especially as you rise up the ladder. ‘You get used to it. It’s not like jumping into a bath of very hot water, you know. The temperature rises as the hot tap fills up the bath.’ Though I suppose thinking you’ll get to turn the hot tap on full, and then being thwarted by the limescale of John Major, must be pretty bloody annoying.
But what does he think of Cameron? First thing to note is that Cameron was a friend of Heseltine’s daughter when young Dave was at Brasenose. And disturbingly, according to Heseltine, ‘He was actually known as ‘Prime Minister’ by his friends at that time. When he was 20, 21.’ Blimey O’Reilly and all that, though perhaps it was merely banter since, as Heseltine points out, ‘You don’t see your daughter’s friends as future Prime Ministers.’ Anyway, now that he is Prime Minister, Cameron has been ‘extremely successful, in the most difficult circumstances. He’s coping with first, the legacy. Secondly, the economic situation, the worst in 80 years. I have no doubt he will win the next election with a majority.’ 
As for the effect of the coalition, it isn’t a problem for Cameron, ‘because there is a feeling amongst some  elements of the Conservative party that they would like to have seen what they call a more virulent or more genuine Conservative party. But in fact in [an all-Tory Government] they would have been up against realpolitik and the balancing nature of the Conservative party itself. There would have been this extraordinary lurch to the right, which Cameron wouldn’t have allowed and doesn’t want and doesn’t believe in and rightly so.’
Heseltine is distinctly optimistic towards the European ideal, especially with regards the Conservative party. ‘I think if you observe what is happening, the determination to preserve the Euro is immense. The British government want to see it survive, the Americans want to see it survive, the Chinese want to see it survive, and the Europeans want to see it survive. So who’s on the outside of the argument?’ Well the right wing of the Tories I suppose. ‘We have lined up two somewhat disproportionate forces.’ 
He smiles. But he isn’t entirely pro-Europe in everything; his opposition to the bureaucracy of it is somewhat trenchant. ‘We have a very orderly world, a very official world, but it doesn’t like stuff that’s untidy or a mess, and so when it sees something that’s a bit vague it tidies it up. Bureaucracies are bureaucracies and they all have this instinct of self-survival and self-enlargement. Human nature, you know.’ 
It was something perhaps he’d liked to have worked on, though he isn’t hugely sure what would have been different if he’d been PM. But the time has come, to use the cricketing metaphors so beloved of eighties Tories, for the bats to be tidied away and the fielders to come in for toasted teacakes. ‘There are people around who say nice things. I’ve had a good innings, and I’m very busy. I don’t sit here working out whether my scorebook has been properly marked.’

At Oxford Heseltine was an absolutely massive hack. There is a magnificent story about how as an undergraduate Heseltine jauntily wrote his career down on the back of an envelope: ‘Millionaire 25, Cabinet Minister 35, party leader 45, Prime Minister 55.’ Heseltine denies this. ‘I don’t remember it, I think it’s out of character. I don’t think I would have planned my life so meticulously, and I don’t think I was confident enough to believe that it would ever work out in that way.’

But he doesn’t deny the importance of learning how to arbitrarily acrue power even at university. ‘It’s an invaluable stepping stone. I mean, my first day as an undergraduate in Oxford I joined the Union, OUCA, and the University City Association. So it was quite obvious what my interests were and where my ambitions lay in my first day as an undergraduate. I treasure the memories.’ Did it teach him to be a politician? A chortle. ‘I suppose you learn the rough and tumble, the need to create alliances, the need to make a judgment, the ability to make your mind up on issues, the ability to stand up and speak to persuade people that you have merit and that therefore they should support you. Yes, without any doubt it was the most formative part of my early life.’

And like any hack worth the name he was heavily involved in Cherwell. Indeed his enormous top floor office is – ha, of course – directly descended from his days as a Cherwell director.  ‘My friend asked me to become a director of the newspaper, which I did, and that’s how I became involved as a publisher, albeit fairly remotely.’ He sort of gestures a bit towards the London power-skyline.

Enough of this self-indulgent prattle. Heseltine is much more interesting for what he says about Europe, his Big Thing. He denies euroscepticism is even possible in a party of government, ‘The fact is that when you get involved in active politics and you have to make the lonely decisions about British self-interest, you can’t escape the questions about British sovereignty that have been woven together for the past thousand years. It’s not like in opposition. You have the president or the chancellor on the phone, and you have to do business with them.

‘So it’s an interwoven relationship from which there is no escape. And shouldn’t be.’ Not surprisingly, when Heseltine was going for gold against Thatcher it was Europe that was the canyon between them. That and their unbelievable egos.

But what really strikes me about Heseltine is his complete lack of ideological charisma. He doesn’t pretend he believes in that much. Europe, yes. Free markets, double yes. But apart from that? I’m not convinced. Not that this is actually bad, because he doesn’t pretend otherwise; he doesn’t pretend he wants the world to be that different to how it is now.

When I put this to him it conjures a very long pause. Then he says, ‘Do you have to have an ideology to drive you? I think you could have an ambition to play a role in the conduct of affairs. You could have a certain set of values and a set of convictions as to how society should evolve based on your own morality, on your own convictions, on an understanding of history, on the relative opportunities of the underprivileged, the obligations of power. And if they all add up to an ideology then so be it. But it would be – a friend of mine from Oxford once said to me, ‘Politics is where you play on the wider stage’. And I think that says it all really. It’s so stimulating, so exciting, so potentially of value that once you’ve tasted there’s nothing like it.’

Mostly in it for the chase then it seems. Hmm. Interesting. That would explain a lot about his Oxford days. In fact he makes a very pregnant remark about this. The feeling at the top – of being Deputy Prime Minister, say – is apparently not much more brilliant than the feeling of winning an election to be President of the Union.

‘I mean a human being is capable only of certain degrees of feeling. I think it’s a fair point to make. The excitement of the summer of 1954 when I was 21, at the possibility of becoming President of the Oxford Union – I suppose in November of 1990 there was a similar feeling of exhilaration and opportunity. I think that you make a good point to ask about the comparison between the two.’ 

Well. What can I say. But being in power, says Heseltine, is not something you notice especially as you rise up the ladder. ‘You get used to it. It’s not like jumping into a bath of very hot water, you know. The temperature rises as the hot tap fills up the bath.’ Though I suppose thinking you’ll get to turn the hot tap on full, and then being thwarted by the limescale of John Major, must be pretty bloody annoying.

But what does he think of Cameron? First thing to note is that Cameron was a friend of Heseltine’s daughter when young Dave was at Brasenose. And disturbingly, according to Heseltine, ‘He was actually known as ‘Prime Minister’ by his friends at that time. When he was 20, 21.’ Blimey O’Reilly and all that, though perhaps it was merely banter since, as Heseltine points out, ‘You don’t see your daughter’s friends as future Prime Ministers.’ Anyway, now that he is Prime Minister, Cameron has been ‘extremely successful, in the most difficult circumstances. He’s coping with first, the legacy. Secondly, the economic situation, the worst in 80 years. I have no doubt he will win the next election with a majority.’ 

As for the effect of the coalition, it isn’t a problem for Cameron, ‘because there is a feeling amongst some  elements of the Conservative party that they would like to have seen what they call a more virulent or more genuine Conservative party. But in fact in [an all-Tory Government] they would have been up against realpolitik and the balancing nature of the Conservative party itself. There would have been this extraordinary lurch to the right, which Cameron wouldn’t have allowed and doesn’t want and doesn’t believe in and rightly so.’

Heseltine is distinctly optimistic towards the European ideal, especially with regards the Conservative party. ‘I think if you observe what is happening, the determination to preserve the Euro is immense. The British government want to see it survive, the Americans want to see it survive, the Chinese want to see it survive, and the Europeans want to see it survive. So who’s on the outside of the argument?’ Well the right wing of the Tories I suppose. ‘We have lined up two somewhat disproportionate forces.’ 

He smiles. But he isn’t entirely pro-Europe in everything; his opposition to the bureaucracy of it is somewhat trenchant. ‘We have a very orderly world, a very official world, but it doesn’t like stuff that’s untidy or a mess, and so when it sees something that’s a bit vague it tidies it up. Bureaucracies are bureaucracies and they all have this instinct of self-survival and self-enlargement. Human nature, you know.’ 

It was something perhaps he’d liked to have worked on, though he isn’t hugely sure what would have been different if he’d been PM. But the time has come, to use the cricketing metaphors so beloved of eighties Tories, for the bats to be tidied away and the fielders to come in for toasted teacakes. ‘There are people around who say nice things. I’ve had a good innings, and I’m very busy. I don’t sit here working out whether my scorebook has been properly marked.’

The scarcity of economic enterprise

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In his 2008 book In Defence of Lost Causes, Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek describes the democratic process as a “big other”, a term taken from the work of Jaques Lacan. For Žižek, a “big other” is a pure embodiment of legitimacy and authority, which abstracts away from the imperfections and personal interests of fallible individuals. Democratic procedure can fulfil this role by taking the verdict of the masses and mediating it through a set of obscure, technocratic rules that, by virtue of their obscurity and technical complexity, confer a sense of impersonal rightness onto the choices of the “mob”. Populism is converted into democracy.

Žižek’s evidence for this is the reaction to George W. Bush’s election in 2000: even though Al Gore had won the national popular vote, Bush’s victory in the “big other” of the Electoral College meant that he was the legitimate, and indeed actual, winner.   

In his 2008 book In Defence of Lost Causes, Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek describes the democratic process as a “big other”, a term taken from the work of Jaques Lacan. For Žižek, a “big other” is a pure embodiment of legitimacy and authority, which abstracts away from the imperfections and personal interests of fallible individuals. Democratic procedure can fulfil this role by taking the verdict of the masses and mediating it through a set of obscure, technocratic rules that, by virtue of their obscurity and technical complexity, confer a sense of impersonal rightness onto the choices of the “mob”. Populism is converted into democracy. Žižek’s evidence for this is the reaction to George W. Bush’s election in 2000: even though Al Gore had won the national popular vote, Bush’s victory in the “big other” of the Electoral College meant that he was the legitimate, and indeed actual, winner.
    Of course, Žižek’s view here is wrong: Bush’s victory was a source of outrage for many, and that it was grudgingly accepted may be explicable by virtue of the rigidity of America’s constitutional setup; we don’t need to perform a mass psychoanalysis. In general, populations tend to get outraged when governments, however theoretically legitimate, make decisions that fly in the face of public opinion: just look at Greece. But in looking at Greece, we may in fact discover another “big other”: people who know anything about economics.
    The globe is in a crisis that is basically without precedent: the Cannes G20 summit has at the time of writing just ended without an agreement on increasing the EFSF, meaning that Greece’s (and now maybe Italy’s) bailouts are looking increasingly precarious. More broadly, the past year has seen Standard & Poor’s downgrade the United States’ credit rating, various leaders allude to the possibility of the breakup of the Eurozone, and the development of a global backlash that ranges from peaceful occupations in New York to riots in Athens. Very clearly, these are interesting times, in which the total breakdown of the previously existing international and national orders is a distinct possibility. Nonetheless, for most people, the processes by which this crisis has happened, as well as those which offer some hope of its resolution, remain opaque. While every taxi driver can tell you that we “spent more money than we had” or whatever, the number of people who can boast a detailed knowledge of, say, the merits of various different default plans for the Greek government, is vanishingly small when compared with the overall electorate. The implications of this for governance are wide-ranging.
    For one, it means that almost no-one can get involved in the debate on how to respond to the crisis. The argument about what we should do inevitably takes place in complex technical terms, creating significant barriers to entry for anyone who can’t afford to hire hundreds of economists or consultants. Even Niall Ferguson, an economic historian, can be denounced by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman as not having enough expertise to wade in to policy debates. The “Occupy Wall Street” movement can be seen as a kind of capitulation to this dominance: rather than try to engage their opponents on the level of technical detail, the protesters are content to be little more than a public nuisance, whose inability to meet the standards of technical expertise required by their opponents renders their short-to-medium term policy relevance essentially nonexistent. If anything, campaigns like these reinforce the impression that to oppose current economic policy is to oppose “rational” political discourses in general, opting instead for the symbolism of occupation and civil disobedience.
    A defender of OWS might claim that it is important that people smash the hegemony of technocratic decision-making processes and allow everyone’s voice to be heard. This view, however, misses a fundamental point: the claim that “experts know better” is certainly a potent ideological device, but it is also, on its own terms, true. Experts on economics do in fact know far better than most people what the likely effects of various policy options are. While economists don’t necessarily have a better insight into questions of values or justice than your average protestor, we can’t do without this “big other” because any substantive political decision will require technical knowledge that only they have. It’s not enough, incidentally, to say something like “Let the democratic process decide the values, and the technocrats decide how to achieve them”, because the kinds of broad judgements on “values” that publics can make don’t help much in making fine-grade distinctions between policy alternatives. 
    In effect, we have little option but to defer to expert knowledge in deciding how to weather this economic storm. What this means is that we ought to take more seriously who these experts are. Inequality in education means that those with economic training have tended to be more white, male and middle-class than the general public. If most people are unable to second-guess economists, we can at least make sure that as many kinds of groups as possible are represented amongst their ranks, and thus able to make their case in the technical terms required. Perhaps then our “big other” can be slightly less alien.

Of course, Žižek’s view here is wrong: Bush’s victory was a source of outrage for many, and that it was grudgingly accepted may be explicable by virtue of the rigidity of America’s constitutional setup; we don’t need to perform a mass psychoanalysis. In general, populations tend to get outraged when governments, however theoretically legitimate, make decisions that fly in the face of public opinion: just look at Greece. But in looking at Greece, we may in fact discover another “big other”: people who know anything about economics.   

The globe is in a crisis that is basically without precedent: the Cannes G20 summit has at the time of writing just ended without an agreement on increasing the EFSF, meaning that Greece’s (and now maybe Italy’s) bailouts are looking increasingly precarious. More broadly, the past year has seen Standard & Poor’s downgrade the United States’ credit rating, various leaders allude to the possibility of the breakup of the Eurozone, and the development of a global backlash that ranges from peaceful occupations in New York to riots in Athens. Very clearly, these are interesting times, in which the total breakdown of the previously existing international and national orders is a distinct possibility. Nonetheless, for most people, the processes by which this crisis has happened, as well as those which offer some hope of its resolution, remain opaque. While every taxi driver can tell you that we “spent more money than we had” or whatever, the number of people who can boast a detailed knowledge of, say, the merits of various different default plans for the Greek government, is vanishingly small when compared with the overall electorate. The implications of this for governance are wide-ranging.   

For one, it means that almost no-one can get involved in the debate on how to respond to the crisis. The argument about what we should do inevitably takes place in complex technical terms, creating significant barriers to entry for anyone who can’t afford to hire hundreds of economists or consultants. Even Niall Ferguson, an economic historian, can be denounced by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman as not having enough expertise to wade in to policy debates. The “Occupy Wall Street” movement can be seen as a kind of capitulation to this dominance: rather than try to engage their opponents on the level of technical detail, the protesters are content to be little more than a public nuisance, whose inability to meet the standards of technical expertise required by their opponents renders their short-to-medium term policy relevance essentially nonexistent. If anything, campaigns like these reinforce the impression that to oppose current economic policy is to oppose “rational” political discourses in general, opting instead for the symbolism of occupation and civil disobedience.   

A defender of OWS might claim that it is important that people smash the hegemony of technocratic decision-making processes and allow everyone’s voice to be heard. This view, however, misses a fundamental point: the claim that “experts know better” is certainly a potent ideological device, but it is also, on its own terms, true. Experts on economics do in fact know far better than most people what the likely effects of various policy options are. While economists don’t necessarily have a better insight into questions of values or justice than your average protestor, we can’t do without this “big other” because any substantive political decision will require technical knowledge that only they have. It’s not enough, incidentally, to say something like “Let the democratic process decide the values, and the technocrats decide how to achieve them”, because the kinds of broad judgements on “values” that publics can make don’t help much in making fine-grade distinctions between policy alternatives.    

In effect, we have little option but to defer to expert knowledge in deciding how to weather this economic storm. What this means is that we ought to take more seriously who these experts are. Inequality in education means that those with economic training have tended to be more white, male and middle-class than the general public. If most people are unable to second-guess economists, we can at least make sure that as many kinds of groups as possible are represented amongst their ranks, and thus able to make their case in the technical terms required. Perhaps then our “big other” can be slightly less alien.

Preview : Peterson

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Those who have had the pleasure of seeing either of Matt Fuller’s previous plays will not be disappointed by his latest work, Peterson. This new tale of innocence and complicity charts the relationship between the elderly Abel Peterson and the villagers who live in the shadow of the hill on which his house ominously perches. Isolated by more than  just location, the distance between the characters grows even as a young girl, Wendy, tries to breach it. Meanwhile, down in the village the rumour mill grows ever louder and old suspicions reawaken.

Fuller says that Peterson represents his desire to return to character-based drama, and indeed all four of the characters are convincingly developed whilst retaining enough stock characteristics to justify the phrase ‘modern fairytale’. Thomas Olver manages to elicit sympathy as Peterson without ever quite gaining the audience’s trust and the sweetness of his scenes with Wendy (Caitlin McMillan) establishes an uneasy equilibrium. His obsession with a certain female news presenter causes him to gaze compulsively and eerily at the television screen whenever she appears, and the script combines with Olver’s expressions to emphasise the unsettling naivety of his behaviour and his past. Tension is heightened further by the conversational monologues of the villagers (Fen Greatley and Lizhi Howard), which intrude upon the scenes with Abel and Wendy and gradually reveal the dark secrets of Abel’s past.

This conversational style that Fuller has developed gently insinuates and the audience are allowed to form their own opinions of Abel based on his own words and the words of others. The viewer watches and judges the old man alongside the villagers and – despite the description of the play as a ‘fable’ – no character is immediately and simply set apart as the piece’s villain. This compromise between the morally grey in human nature and the stark presentation of oral literature allows for not only flexibility but the promise of suspense as each scene reveals more of each characters’ attitudes and actions.

Amusing and heartfelt, this play explores community from the inside and exposes the baser parts of human nature which judge on appearance and without mercy. The cast unite to examine the way gossip spreads and the effects of mistrust which has turned the perfectly ordinary villagers against their one time friend. Despite the strong focus on character, Fuller says there are also some surprises in store. Although it does not set out to shock, Peterson will certainly have tongues wagging.               

4 STARS

Battles: vicarious living

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‘There wasn’t too much of a dynamic change actually, it was really more of a displacement after Ty left,’ Battles guitarist Dave Konopka’s voice crackled on the other end of a dodgy phone line as we settled down to our interview. Konopka was surprisingly willing to talk about the departure of his colleague and friend, Tyondai Braxton, a subject that I approached warily. The closest Battles ever got to a traditional front-man, Braxton announced he would be leaving the band midway through recording their follow up to 2007’s math-rock behemoth Mirrored.

There was a sense that feelings still run deep over their parting, however, as Konopka paused on a number of occasions to catch himself before delving too deeply into past events. ‘The chemistry just wasn’t there that was on  Mirrored. We started writing the album with Ty on it and the songs just weren’t good,’ Konopka told me, describing the frustrating process of recording new material as tensions began to develop between Braxton and the rest of the band. Comfortable only to talk in vague terms about what must have been an emotionally draining process, Konopka later likened it to ‘trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.’

Rather than contributing to the band’s downward spiral, Tyondai’s departure gave Battles a fresh perspective and only served to fuel their perpetual drive to forge new creative paths, returning to the studio to start their sophomore record again from scratch. ‘To go into a campaign with Ty’s parts on the album would’ve been like building a castle on sand,’ Konopka explained the band’s motivation behind scrapping the work they had already done towards Mirrored’s successor, ‘it was important for us to rewrite the album and start representing ourselves as a three piece.’ 

That is not to say that the band had a well formed vision for the direction that they should take however. ‘It turned into more of a survival mode, trying to figure out where we were with the material we had,’ Konopka conceded as we discussed the somewhat rudderless state that Battles had found themselves in, ‘it took us a really long time to figure out how we were going to proceed as a three piece and move on.’

The end result is, of course, this year’s Gloss Drop, a goofy sweet-shop of an album that couldn’t betray less of Battles’ situation during its production, a ‘dark and depressing’ period in Konopka’s own words. ‘I think we were living vicariously through the upbeat sound of the songs, through seeing light at the end of the tunnel,’ he laughed as he went on to explain that the band had wanted the sound of the album to be ‘indicative of the summer of 2011, not something that represented where [they] were in 2010.’ Indeed, from its opening moments Gloss Drop is at once restless and hyperactive, packed with the humour and improvisational abandon of a group of musicians that sound like they’re having the time of their lives. Faced with such inner turmoil, Battles’ coping mechanism was to create the most unpretentiously visceral music of their career and Gloss Drop stands as a testament to the unfailing power of music to nourish and reconcile both its listeners and its creators.

Of the technical hurdles facing the band following the loss of Braxton perhaps the most difficult to overcome was the resulting lack of a confident vocalist. Although Tyondai’s abstract, processed yelps that pepper Mirrored could hardly be described as lead vocals, his charisma, and not to mention his towering stage presence, provided Battles’ often abstruse music with a much needed focal point and personality. 

Battles chose to fill this void with a host of guest vocalists appearing throughout Gloss Drop. ‘It was kind of a no brainer, it was the only way we could proceed with vocals,’ Konopka recounted their decision, ‘it was too late to get another person to come into the mix and do all the vocals.’ Far from mere damage limitation however, these collaborations afforded Battles the opportunity to explore territory that had previously been out of reach: ‘with Yamantaka Eye [of Boredoms] and Matias Aguayo it was still along the lines of the way we’ve always treated vocals – using the voice as an instrument – but it was fun for us to dip our toes into more of a pop world when Gary Numan and Kazu Makino [of Blonde Redhead] came in.’

‘The songs were pretty much written when we sent out the instrumental tracks for the vocalists to demo their lines on top,’ Konopka explained the logistics of the process, ‘and even though the songs were pretty much done by the time we were giving them the tracks, we still reedited them so it would be more conducive to creating a synthesis between the vocals and the instrumentation.’ Konopka sounded positive about using this format again – ‘it’s a really nice way to collaborate with people you admire, and to get some variety’ – but was sure to emphasise that the future remains ‘unwritten’. 

In fact, he was reluctant to talk with certainty about any plans that Battles may have going forward. ‘As far as a new album, that’s not even being mentioned right now,’ he laughed, understandably wary of the sudden and drastic changes the band has experienced in the past, ‘right now we’re just focusing on playing really good shows and evolving the live set.’

Throughout our conversation, a strong emphasis was placed on this concept of ‘evolution’. Battles is a living and breathing project, constantly morphing and growing as the band reworks material at live gigs. ‘It’s not about coming out of the gates with this fully polished show,’ Konopka stressed the importance he places on creative development, ‘with everything we do we allow fans into our process, be it in the way that we play live or the way that our music evolves.’ He paused before adding, getting right to the heart of what has pushed the band through to where they are today: ‘for us, it’s the process that’s the exciting part. I think it makes for a more interesting journey.’

 

Battles play at the HMV Forum, London on Monday 21st November.

Review: Midnight in Paris

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Ever noticed how since Manhattan, Woody Allen seems to feel obliged to begin his films with dull scene setters, showing off the city he’s filming in and not really showing off his talent at all? Any one can point their camera at the Eiffel Tower or Louvre and make viewers smile at Parisian architecture, but it’s hardly innovative filmmaking.

Fortunately, and to my delight, the critical consensus has turned out to be spot on. Despite the worryingly familiar opening, what follows is not the Allen of recent years in any respect. Midnight in Paris comes to us six months after the God-awful career-low of You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger, and the contrast in creativity couldn’t be any crazier. This is lovely, charming, featherlight cinema, where most of Mr. Allen’s recent efforts have only managed to be the latter. It’s easily his best film of the past decade, thus showing that, for whatever reason, an apparently stale process in which he churned out a film a year can still pay out in silver dollars, and eventually reward the patient.

The film is a return to the touch of magic and fantasy we got in Sleeper and Zelig. Owen Wilson plays a struggling writer called Gil, who seeks inspiration for his work by strolling the streets of Paris. He’s married to an pretty but unimaginative American girl with Republican parents who disapprove of his artsy inclinations, and the early jokes centre around this unfortunate setup, and exchanges with the couple’s intellectually snobbish friend who can talk about art better than Gil can.

Gil finds himself back in 1920 – his Golden Age Utopia – sharing drinks with Zelda and Scott Fitzgerald, getting Gertrude Stein to give feedback on his novel and flirting with Picasso’s latest mistress. It would be very easy to overdo the ‘my God, I can’t believe this is happening’ line here, but fortunately the amount it is used feels just right. Aside from the delights that just naturally attach themselves to observing the details of this situation, there’s a handful of ingenious gags we should really see coming sooner. Gil, like the Allen of old, frets constantly about death, so meeting the stoical Hemingway over wine obviously turns out to be a match made in comedic heaven. The same goes for Gil’s attempts to explain his bizarre time travelling situation to Bunuel and Dali, who calmly nod at a story that coheres with their surrealist mindset.

Having to return to the modern world in the day time, and keep the pleasures of the past for midnight, is the only drag in the film, but I suppose that’s the point. The film seems keen to stress the way every generation imagines the past as a vintage era, and fails to see the quality of the present. It’s hard to believe now, but people will, surely, look back on the 2000s and say ‘imagine living whilst those artists were at work.’ But who? Day-Lewis? the Coens? Nolan? Murakami? Who knows! Even Stein casually talks to Picasso evidently ignorant of how her name and his will turn out to be of cult, revered status in a century’s time.

And the film is also, of course, about the omnipresent Allen theme of how maybe we should not care if we are part of a meaningless universe, because as Gil puts it, at least by being  in a place like Paris we can construct our own meaning and delightful experiences regardless of the coldness of Neptune.

Review: The Rum Diary

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I must confess, if it wasn’t for a free screening I initially wouldn’t have gone to see this film. I had no prejudice against it, I just wasn’t aware of it, and as I am not a fan of Hunter S. Thompson’s books (one of which this film is based on) there wasn’t a massive draw for me. In any case, this is my rookie review: once I did  see The Rum Diary I found it both entertaining and interesting. Johnny Depp, often criticised for the over-the-top and similar nature of his roles goes for a more restrained take in this, his long term project. He plays recently arrived journalist Paul Kemp as something of a straight man against his new and absurd co-workers and the mad, corrupt world of Puerto Rico: a departure for the usually flamboyant actor, but a successful one, his performance bringing a great deal of the humour and pathos in the film.

The Rum Diary has some great comedy moments, most notably an ingenious car chase featuring Depp, a co-worker and a missing car seat that defies written explanation. Giovanni Ribisi, playing an alcoholic neo-nazi religion and crime correspondent also deserves a mention, his character delivering some of the film’s best lines. In fact, the film is a fun, albeit surreal, romp for most of its running time e unfortunately taking a turn for the worse as everyone starts taking themselves very seriously. It’s impossible to take the film’s later poignancy with a serious attitude considering the earlier mood, and in any case some of the lines the characters deliver are so heavy-handed and wooden that the effect is slightly embarrassing rather than affecting. The second half generally suffers from half-formed ideas and lazy plotting – one character leaves the country for no obvious reason, and another casts off a business partner with no real motivation given. It’s a shame, because the cast do give some great performances and the photography is fantastic, veering from lush green landscapes to brutal cockfights while consistently conveying the wonder and strangeness of Puerto Rico in every shot. In fact, Puerto Rico seems alive as any of the characters, bustling with people and looking authentically grimy – the set dressers deserve much credit for creating such a credible picture of the city in the 1960s.

This film wasn’t perfect, but was it worth seeing for free? Absolutely. Is it worth paying to see? I’d say that it probably is, on balance – it’s a lot of fun for the most part, and for any Johnny Depp fans I’d say the film was essential. He gives his most balanced performance in years, and quite frankly it’s nice to see him playing someone a bit more normal.

The perils of the role of a lifetime

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There is a preconception that the role of ‘actor’ is a transformative one. Adaption, disguise and variety should be second-nature to a person whose job it is to act, however personal and self-centric that process might be (I’m looking at you, Daniel Day Lewis plus disciples). However, there are those that prove time and time again that success is not correlative with difference.

At his most box-office friendly, the close resemblance between the incarnations of Will Smith – wise-cracking, action hero extraordinaire – is spine-tinglingly uniform. Running from explosions, close encounters with the supernatural and a partiality for the phrase “oh HELL no” became a checklist for Smith’s agent in selecting scripts, as well as other prerequisites. Location: THE United States of America, where the world’s fate WILL hang in the balance. Julia Roberts also has a mantra to determine her choices – her typical role as self-help guru and heroine of empowered women who turn out to need a man after all (and less hero of the universe). Type-casting is not a phenomena peculiar to Adonis-like vessels, where performances play second fiddle to bodily perfection. The low, soothing resonance of Morgan Freeman’s dulcet tones has become the cinematic equivalent to auto-tune, lending wisdom and sincerity to any speech. He is like a one man epic-making machine, pulling off ridiculous explanatory material in his narration of War of the Worlds, and as God in Bruce Almighty. Samuel L Jackson, of ‘bad-ass’ fame, Cameron Diaz the goofy bombshell, Oxford alumni Hugh Grant’s stuttering Toff, and Prince Charming himself, Cary Grant, all seem fixed in the proto-type of their first, successful role.

It is then perhaps inevitable that a backlash of actors attempting to confound expectations (and usually to reinvigorate careers), seek to sample new waters. One can only sympathise. For them, filling in that ‘job description’ box on legal papers (for reasons including divorce, rehab and a dangerously over flowing bank statement) must provoke extreme existential crisis. Or at least a Hollywood-style midlife crisis. His CV stacked with explosion-dodging, Will Smith joined the swelling ranks of action heroes applying their strength and determination to their craft. Smith’s efforts in ALI and the Pursuit of Happyness were met with some praise, but more interestingly showcased another characteristic of gear-shifting roles. Rippling muscles are covered, hair greyed and dark circles allowed to show, with such drastic attempts at gritty ‘ugliness’ an oft used pointing device that shoves the gravitas of the role down the audiences’ throats. The proof is in the pudding, or rather, the Oscar, with actresses Charlize Théron and Nicole Kidman recent performers who exchanged their looks for the roles that would shift the emphasis onto their talent.

It seems slightly unfair that comedians be similarly judged for role-regurgitation, and on the whole, they seem altogether less bothered. Take the ‘frat-pack’ of Judd Apatow’s crew who frequent LA set comedies. Here the central story arch and situational distinctions are secondary to the semi-improvised frolicking that carries and characterises these films. Cynically put, there is a brand at work, but there is also a natural dimension to this trend. Actors such as Rogen and Ferrell, so closely involved with the writing process, are creating comedy in a similar vein to stand-up comics; the jokes may change but the temper and delivery is consistent with their own individual style. There is a sense that, given the intelligence and charisma of some of these performers, a wider range could be both possible and plausible. James Franco has successfully navigated a trans-genre career, acting his way from Pineapple Express to 127 hours, and the same might be proved by Rogen. His groove has so far been rooted in affability and a generous chuckle, though shades of sensitivity suggest a propensity for ‘serious’ drama. However, the necessity or desire for such a change is as yet, undetected, with Rogen currently attached to three comedies in conjunction with previous collaborators.

In terms of the ‘right decision’ as an actor, there is no route which necessitates greater popularity, or even growth as a performer. Robert De Niro’s semi-surreal comic exploits in the Meet the Parents franchise, and even more bafflingly in the dire Analyze That are living proof that groundless genre hopping does not a good idea make. In escaping the shackles of the eternally troubled criminal (of which his most brilliant, and individual performances range from Taxi Driver to The King of Comedy) De Niro has found himself in the altogether more dangerous grasp of pointless rom-coms. Apparently an upcoming film New Year’s Eve promises to deliver as few laughs as its celebrity-ridden Valentine’s Day counterpart.

So actors, beware, by all means extend your range, push your craft, just make sure to have an authorised adult with you at all times.