Friday 19th September 2025
Blog Page 2214

Your guide to Election Night

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So here we go. In 36 hours the United States will have a new President and if the polls are to be believed arise sir Barack Obama.

Below is your print-out-and-keep hour by hour guide to tomorrow night for those of you planning to watch the returns on tv. If you’re going to be by a computer join me for one final liveblog which will be coming via my phone from the Union’s election night party.

Oh, and a quick plug. Last week I joined a panel to discuss the election for Second Look. Click here for audio joy. Finally, a word on this blog. From later this week I’ll be starting a series of posts looking back at the campaign season and the key issues/changes it raised. I’ll also be widening my focus to American culture at large and, if you’re really lucky, there might even be a bit of English politics as well.

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All times are for the UK.

11pm – Majority of polls in Indiana shut. McCain is still the slight favourite to win this state but if the networks can’t call the polls straight away things are looking good for Obama. If Obama wins early here get ready for a landslide.

Senate-wise Kentucky (which also shuts its polls at this point) is one of 3 key races where the Democrats will be looking for an upset if they are to reach 60 seats. The other two, Georgia (12pm) and Mississippi (1am) will start to report later. A footnote here – there is a rule in Georgia whereby if one candidate doesn’t reach 50% a run-off is held).

12pm – Polls shut in Virginia and Florida. Both are key toss-up states but since the financial crisis and bailout Obama has enjoyed a healthy lead in Virginia paritcuarly. A win here for the Democrats gives McCain a very narrow route to 270 votes and probably indicates an Obama win. If Florida goes too it’s a done deal.

On the other hand, if Florida goes for McCain and Virginia is slow to be called we could be in for a nail-biter.

12.30am – Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina. A chance to assess the impact of the ground game. North Carolina has been very very close in recent polling so results from the state will give an opportunity to see how much Obama’s much-touted advantage in the get out the vote operation will be worth.

In 2004 the election came down to Ohio. No Republican President has ever reached the White House without turning the Buckeye state red and so Ohio’s 21 electoral college votes are crucial for John McCain. Obama has other routes to 270 (a combination of Virginia or Colorado with Iowa and Niew Mexico is a likely one) but an early call for the GOP on Ohio will mean the election will be heading late into the night.

1am – Polls shut in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Whilst McCain likes to think these are both toss-ups in reality they should be quick calls for Obama. This could well be the point where the networks project that Obama will reach 270 votes (states like California with 55 votes ahead are locked up for the Democrats) and declare him the winner. Polls also close in Missouri at this point, but don’t expect the state to be called any time soon, the state should be in for a close finish.

2am – Lots of results coming in from the right-hand two-thirds of the country. If it’s not done by now the focus will be turning to New Mexico, Colorado (in both these states polls shut now) and Nevada. One to watch at this point will also be Arizona. There’s a very real possibility that in the event of a landslide McCain could even lose his home state – he was forced to play defence there just two days ago.

Also of interest here is the closely fought Minnesota senate race between comedian Al Franken and Norm Coleman. Franken is currently slightly favoured and will be a cruical pickup for the Dems if they are to have any chance of reaching that magic veto-proof majority of 60-40.Minnesota would likely represent the 59th seat for the Democrats (including independents Sanders and Lieberman).

3am – The last of these three results will come in from Nevada. Polls also shut in Iowa. The latter should be safe for Obama but if it’s still in the air at this stage something has gone badly wrong with the polling and Iowa’s 7 electoral college votes will be very valuable for John McCain.

4am – California, Washington and Oregon start reporting results. All three are safely blue at the presidential level but there is a close governor race in Washington for hardcore politicos to look out for.

5am – Alaskan results will start coming in. By now the presidential race will be over one way or another but there’s a senate seat up for grabs in Palin’s home state and following the conviction of Republican incumbent Senator Ted Stevens it should be there for the taking for the Democrats.

A word on these timings: given the expectations of record turnout and in spite of the quantity of early voting it is likely that counting will take longer than normal, and that poll opening hours may even be extended. As a result the fact that states won’t be called straight away does not mean they have suddenly become very close necessarily, it could just be slow counting. Following some embarrassments in the primaries (New Hampshire anyone?) the networks are increasingly suspicious of exit polling as a predictor of the actual result.

And finally, my prediction:

Obama: Kerry states + NM, CO, NV, VA, OH, NC, FL, IA, MO

Giving a final score of Obama 364 vs. McCain 174.

Cherwell Star: Oliver Wright

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This summer, Olly Wright found himself sitting in a 1989 VW Polo in Hyde Park, waiting for the starting horn to begin his expedition across two thirds of the world’s circumference in the Mongol Rally. The first year St Edmund’s Hall medic spent the next twenty three days driving across Europe through Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia before embarking upon a treacherous six day crossing of Mongolia to the finish line in Ulan Batur.

Wright and two friends raised £1,500 for Mercy Corps Mongolia and Hope and Homes for Children before their departure to qualify their entry on the rally. Using the true skills of a resourceful student Wright procured £200 sponsorship from ‘Tractorland’ in exchange for allowing a model of Tractor Ted to accompany him on his expedition, promising to photograph him throughout. Wright also got given the beige 1989 VW Polo (affectionately named Gordon) by Jection Garage, and was so ready for the Mongol Rally.

“Out of all the countries we visited, Iran was the place I’d like to back to above all,” Wright said. “It was nothing like we’d expected. We were invited in to strangers’ houses for supper-everybody there was so friendly” he added.

Beside the overwhelming kindness from so many people though, the trip did not go without hitches. “We were let in to Turkmenistan, but then were locked in ‘no-man’s-land’ for twenty four hours” Wright said. “My friend also got his guitar confiscated at the border crossing in Azerbaijan, which was pretty upsetting, but we got it back eventually.”

Equally the car itself did not quite manage the trip without problems. “It was crossing Mongolia that Gordon really began to suffer,” Wright reminisces with a distinct glint in his eye. “The exhaust fell off, and we drove over a rock that punctured our fuel tank, though it’s amazing what you can do with duct tape and a bar of soap” he says.

Having made it to Ulan Batur, Wright caught the Trans Siberian back home. “It wasn’t until we got back to England that it really sunk in that we’d actually made it,” he says. “When I arrived in Ulan Batur itself, there was no massive rush of relief-I just don’t think that we could really believe it.”

Having survived all the drama of the summer, Wright said that the overwhelming greatness of the trip was how it brought friends together. “We’ve all already joined climbing clubs, and have set our sights on Everest in three year’s time. Otherwise we’re thinking about cycling across America, or maybe China.” It seems that having survived the Mongol Rally, the world is Wright’s oyster.

 

Restaurant Review: Edamame

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It’s Thursday, and outside the effervescent limits of the Oxford bubble that would usually mean only one day until the weekend. Yet, stuck as we are in this antiquated limbo-land, there is no weekend. No god-sent two day break but only a perpetual tedium of days without dates stretching out before us. But fear not, there is one way to punctuate your work/drinking/sleeping routine.

I’m not talking about college drink-fests or evenings of Oxford Union hackery, which I’m sure already fill your week. I’m talking about the simple pleasures of good food with friends. That’s why Thursdays should be penciled into to your Blackwells calendar, as Sushi night at Edamame. When life in Ox-land gets you down you can momentarily escape along your tastebuds to a pseudo-Japan, minus the geishas and sliding paper doors I’m afraid.

So why are Thursdays the selected instance for such a transportation? You may ask – the truth is, in keeping with the rest of Edamame’s bizarre opening hours, there is no logical or even vaguely plausible explanation. Like all the other eccentricities of Oxford, it’s best just to go along with it because if you happen to want sushi on any other day of the week YO! is your only option. And sushi at Edamame is definitely better than the shards of plastic rice at Yo!

It’s generally fresh and well prepared, they have a great nigri set for seven squid, which although unadventurous is pretty satisfying when doused in wasabi and soy sauce. Only don’t be fooled into thinking that demand indicates quality – only limited supply unfortunately; I await a far-east Asian culinary revolution in Oxford! Because I am an avid supporter of the principle of raw food – why cook something when its tastes better if you don’t? (bacteria is rarely fatal nowadays) and because I love sushi, I can’t help but be happy stepping into Edamame’s tiny teeming dining area with a group of rowdy friends and being crammed onto a rickety Ikea table. No advice needed on what to order; sushi is as variable as it is invariable, so just close your eyes and point at the menu and order a large bottle of sake, because Edamame is about the experience (and not necessarily the food.)

If you are left standing out in the chilly mist of one Thursday too many then you could always go to Edamame for lunch, its really good value and has a varied and exciting menu. The salads are a step above the usual English conception of a plate of lettuce drowned in heavy dressing. They are refreshing and have interesting flavour combinations that zing on the tongue, I especially felt oddly rejuvenated by the wasabi pickled cucumber, which electrified my nasal passage. The fish is definitely a highlight of the menu. Theterriaki salmon that I sunk my teeth into was oozing moisture, aka it wasn’t overcooked, and was the right side of sweet, unlike many a version that I’ve had in my lifetime. Other dishes such as the ginger pork were extremely edible and a welcome change from the kind of grey rubber that they serve in hall at some of the colleges, which is enough to give, me at least, pork-infested nightmares. And all these crafted dishes are complimented by the best sticky rice in the bubble; composed of gooey grains rather than unloved pellets. In short Edamame is the best alternative to the processed mechanized hell of Yo! And as I have yet to visit Japan and therefore don’t know any better it definitely sates my hungering for oblongs of Asian flavors… every week.

Travelling in Turkey

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Since I began visiting Turkey frequently as a child, I’ve always thought that it must be one of the strangest countries on Earth. It borders Iran and Greece, but it’s not European and not exactly Middle Eastern. It has elections and a heavy military intrusion into politics, but it’s not really a democracy nor a military regime. It’s home to enormous wealth, in the mansions on the Bosphorous with their multitude of Bentleys, and great poverty. It’s taken so much from the West and yet remains so idiosyncratically Turkish. It’s confused and confusing, and one of the most interesting destinations in the world.

My visits to Turkey have always begun with a stay with my extended family in Ankara, the city created to house the new Republican government. For a country with such a distinctive history and culture, Ankara’s capacity for mind-numbing monotony is quite remarkable. Only the bureaucratic at heart can enjoy Ankara’s attractions (the most interesting being a mausoleum): others would do well to avoid the manufactured metropolis.

Its polar opposite lies a mere 5-hour bus journey away, in one of the most beautiful and fascinating places on Earth, the former capital of Istanbul. It may be a cliché to say so, but Istanbul is the one of the only cities I have visited where I expect to see something genuinely surprising every day; an old Armenian woman, weighed down by her stunning, antique jewelry in a crowded minibus in Sariyer, a hip hop record store blasting some classic NaS in Beyoglu, a gaggle of peroxide blond, Istanbul socialites picking up Balenciaga bags in Nisantasi…

And then there are the aspects of Istanbul which, despite its uniqueness, make it so stereotypically Turkish; men playing backgammon in tea gardens overlooking the Bosphorous, the smell of freshly baked baklava, the markets full of Kurdish traders with their fresh produce, the poverty of those newly arrived from the rural South-East… All this activity, that which is unique to Istanbul and the normal bustle of a crowded Turkish city, takes place against an instantly recognizable skyline: centuries-old Byzantine and Ottoman palaces, mosques and homes, the modern architecture of a newly industrialised country and, of course, that vast, sparkling, deep blue body of water that cuts the city in half, the Bosphorous.

Despite the impression that Istanbul gives to Westerners, it is important to remember that Turkey is a country which has remained distant from European intellectual and cultural traditions. Visitors would do well to leave their Western conceptions of liberty, individualism and rationalism at home; the Enlightenment never reached the remote villages of central Anatolia nor the nomadic tribes of the East.

Turkish society remains authoritarian and hierarchical, with a strong deference to elders, authority (legitimate or otherwise) and the past. In Turkey, you are not viewed as an individual with a capacity for independent action. Your family history, your regional origin, your ethnicity and your religion determine who your friends are, which newspapers you read, which music you like, the area you live in and so on.

Aggravating this sense of fatalism is the deeply superstitious nature of Turks, with belief in the power of dreams and fortune-tellers widespread. Indeed, many Turks quite easily take what can only be fantasy as fact.

One particular event in my family history comes to mind: a man, who had fallen in love with my great-grandmother when they were teenagers, waited 50 years for my great-grandmother’s husband to die, only to be refused by his former flame and die himself the next day of a broken heart. “Events” like this often seem more likely to have their origin in the works of Gabriel Garcia Marquez than my family history.

Factual stories of centuries-long family feuds and blood vendettas are also commonplace. Visits to my father’s tiny, almost pre-historic village in the heavily Kurdish east, with its very own sacred pear tree, have confirmed this aspect of Turkish culture.

Unsurprisingly, this is not a nation in which liberal democracy has had much success, experiencing three military coups in three decades. The military remains the most powerful institution in Turkey, a fact which becomes obvious to foreign visitors thanks to the pervasive army presence.

Tourists will also grow quickly accustomed to the image of Ataturk, a military commander who established the Turkish Republic and governed it under a single-party system. In front of every government building, in every store and café, in houses, hospitals and schools, Ataturk’s stern blue eyes are watching over the Turkish public. Despite the fact that I’ve spent a considerable amount of time in Turkey, I still find this hero worship of its founder more than a little disquieting.

Equally disquieting is the fact that, every time I visit Turkey, it seems the country has made few advances towards the nominally democratic ideals upon which it was founded. During my last visit, in September 2008, the government banned YouTube for broadcasting anti-Ataturk propaganda and was jailing journalists almost every week.

In 1951, the Turkish language’s greatest poet, Nazim Hikmet, was exiled to Russia and more than half a century on, it’s greatest novelist, the noble-prize winning Orhan Pamuk, has suffered a similar fate. Essentially, the Western media’s portrayal of Turkey as a beacon of hope in the political disaster zone of the Middle East could not be further from the truth.

This article may present a confusing portrait of Turkey. While this could reflect my own love-hate relationship with the country, it might also be the natural result of Turkey itself being a confused nation. Like the children of the large Turkish diaspora, it stands with one foot in modern, liberal Europe and the other in its Oriental past… desperately trying to keep its balance, and take a step forward. 

 

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Final Cut

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All clothes and shoes: Topshop, Queen Street, except Kate’s jacket, Zara
All make up: Mac
Models: Kate Leadbetter, Vanessa Fairfield      
Photographer: Derek Tan
Stylist: Rebecca Johnson
Assistant stylist: Joanna  Wilding

Bennett donates manuscripts to Bod

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Author and playwright Alan Bennett has generously bestowed his entire life’s work to the Bodleian Library for free. He said the gift was “a kind of recompense” for the free education he received at Oxford, which he contrasted with the “burden of debt” that today’s graduates face.

Bennett told Cherwell that when he attended Exeter College in the 1950s there was “no question of ending up with a massive debt. You never even had to consider the question of money. If you got in, that was the only thing you had to think about.”

His remarks come as implicit criticism of Oxford Chancellor Lord Patten’s recent remarks, which called for a complete removal of the cap on tuition fees, as well as government policy on tuition fees. He added, “It should be possible. It should be the state’s job to fund and organise state education. It ought to be possible.”

Speaking of his own experience, he said, “It’s not fashionable to thank the state but I’m very grateful the system was in place.” He added that such a situation would be a dream to today’s students.

In recognition of this, Bennett has donated his entire archive to the Bod, a stark contrast to many other writers or their heirs who chose to make a fortune selling the papers. Bennett’s bequest follows news of the £500,000 purchase of Ted Hughes’ manuscripts by the British Library in mid-October.

Bennett said, “There’s so much I’m quite glad to see the back of. I just pity the poor research student who may have to make sense of it all.” Among the collection are original manuscripts, typescripts, drafts and handwritten notes for all of Bennett’s stage and television plays, his memoirs and various novellas and short stories.

Dr Sarah Thomas, Librarian and Director of the Bodleian, called Bennett’s generosity “a model and inspiration for others.” She added, “it’s marvellous to have the papers of such a gifted writer, but absolutely extraordinary for them to be given, not sold, to the Bodleian. In a time in which many people are worrying about material success, he points the way to a different value system.”

Richard Ovenden, the Bodleian’s assistant director, spoke of the library’s “great joy” at receiving the work of “one of the greatest writers to have written in the English language.” Gaining the papers, he said, was the first great acquisition of the 21st century.

At a reception held to mark the gift on Monday, Bennett was presented with the Bodleian medal, awarded in recognition of his services to the Bod. David Vaisey, ex-librarian of the Bodleian and long-standing friend of Bennett, presented the award.

Vaisey called the medal, which uses copper taken from the library roof “the greatest honour the Bodleian can bestow upon anyone”, and a fitting gift for the “the most admired and most loved contemporary English playwright.”

 

Elitism row girl graduates

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Laura Spence, the comprehensive schoolgirl whose UCAS application was famously rejected by Magdalen College despite her being predicted five A grades at A-Level, has graduated from Cambridge University.

Spence was awarded a degree in medicine with distinction from Wolfson College and now plans to work as a doctor.
She became the focus of an elitism row eight years ago when Gordon Brown, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, attacked Oxford’s decision to reject her application as a “scandal” and an “absolute disgrace.”

Brown argued that elitism was entrenched in the Oxford admissions system, adding that it was “more reminiscent of the old boy network and the old school tie than genuine justice in our society”.

He blamed Magdalen College for refusing Laura on the basis of her comprehensive school background. However, an inquiry by the Commons Education Select Committee found no evidence of bias or unfair conduct in the Oxford admissions process.

Following her rejection, Spence won a £65,000 scholarship to study biochemistry at Harvard University, before moving to study at Cambridge as a postgraduate.

A pupil from a state school in Monkseaton, Tyneside, Spence became a popular symbol of alleged Oxford snobbery in the press, and is frequently mentioned in attacks on the University’s admissions procedure.

She said in 2001 however that she never doubted Oxford’s decision. “I was a bit upset when I came out of the interview because I hadn’t done as well as I thought I could have.”

Speaking of Gordon Brown’s comments, Spence told the BBC in 2001, “I don’t think I was a perfect example of what I was trying to point out because I don’t feel that being from the North or a comprehensive mattered in my case.”

After collecting her degree this week, Spence refused to speak in detail to the press, saying “I’m starting work as a doctor now but I don’t want to say anything more than that.”