What will the impact of bin Laden’s death be for al-Qaida?
Al-Qaida affiliates and other militants inspired by bin Laden will no doubt seek to mount attacks in revenge for his ‘martyrdom’. If they can, they will seek out targets in the US mainland; if not, they will be targeting US interests globally or US allies. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, there is a heightened risk of militant attacks, especially in view of the violation of Pakistani sovereignty in the operation. Bin Laden had long ceased to be an operational leader — rather a continuing icon and inspiration of anti-US defiance—as attacks on the al-Qaida leadership had removed most senior and middle managers. Instead, al-Qaida affiliates, particularly in Yemen and the Maghreb have taken up the mantle, leading to a more diffuse ‘franchise’ less able to mount attacks of the scale and complexity of September 11, 2001. Bin Laden’s surviving deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, does not have the same charisma. Therefore, bin Laden’s demise will demoralise the al-Qaida network, at a time when its violent ideology is being seriously challenged by the largely peaceful and non-religious agenda of the ‘Arab spring’.
What are the implications for the ISAF mission in Afghanistan?
Since al-Qaida’s presence in Afghanistan is very limited and its links with the Taliban durable and extensive, bin Laden’s absence will have little effect on the operational capacity of either group. However, since destroying the al-Qaida network and the elimination of bin Laden were central leitmotifs of the US presence, the Abbottabad operation will help politically underpin the Obama administration’s ambitious military withdrawal timetable. Yet in order to secure Washington’s strategic interests, the US military will still maintain a long-term presence in Afghanistan.
So are there potential repercussions for US relations with Pakistan?
The discovery that bin Laden was using a safe house less than one kilometre from Pakistan’s military academy in Abbottabad, which is only 50 kilometres from the capital Islamabad, bolsters claims frequently made by senior US officials, that senior al-Qaida and Taliban leaders have found sanctuary in Pakistan. Suspicion in Washington that Pakistan’s military and security agencies were aware of bin Laden’s whereabouts will strain bilateral ties.
Will bin Laden’s death boost Barack Obama’s presidency?
The bin Laden operation will cause Obama’s approval numbers to surge; unlike, for example, the rise in public support for former President Bush following the capture of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Obama’s recovery is more likely to endure. Saddam’s capture bolstered Bush’s image in areas where he was already then-perceived as strong (particularly national security); bin Laden’s death bolsters Obama precisely where he is weakest (national security, leadership). Indeed, the president’s opponents in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and potential presidential challengers immediately hailed the operation and most gave Obama a share of personal credit.
