In the early hours of Sunday morning, sixteen Afghan civilians, nine of them children, were killed by a rogue US Army soldier stationed at a base in Panjwai, Kandahar province. He acted alone in what many speculate was a pre-meditated attack. The soldier has not been named but the AP news agency quoted officials saying that he is 38, married with at least two children. While his motivations remain unclear, one thing is certain. For America, this marks the beginning of the end of the Afghan mission.
This is not the first time soldiers have intentionally killed civilians. In 2010, four soldiers killed three unarmed men in Maiwand district. But the timing of these killings is significant. Afghans are still reeling from the accidental burning of Qurans in late February which led to widespread riots which left over 30 people dead, including two U.S. military officers killed Saturday in a heavily guarded Afghan government ministry. This came shortly after a video leaked showing US Marines urinating on the corpses of men they had killed. The Taliban have threatened a violent retaliation to the killings which has reignited anti-American sentiment and further undermined the delicate American battle for Afghan hearts and minds.
The great irony in Afghanistan is that the efforts of American generals and senior government officials to gain local support for the NATO mission has not been undermined by the large number killings of civilians which have come as the result of intentional drone strikes or other forms of military engagement. Rather a few, random, unpredictable scandals for which the US cannot be blamed have done the most damage.
Obama has interpreted the growing frequency of such scandals as a confirmation that it is time to withdraw, but perhaps it is the withdrawal itself which has increased volatility. Knowledge that the NATO presence is nearing its end, the Taliban are reinvigorated and have interpreted the withdrawal as a victory. The announced withdrawal has also changed the mind set of the Americans. The top command insist that America continues to have a long term interest in a stable and prosperous Afghanistan, but it is hard to communicate these sentiments down through the chain of command to the soldiers on the ground. Ordinary troops no longer feel the US has a great stake in the future of Afghanistan and even fear they have lost the support of the American people.
Over the next few days, Afghanistan will be on a knife edge. Some bases have doubled the number of soldiers on watch duty while others have begun guarding their barracks as well. Initial reports suggest protests have not reached the levels seen last week after the accidental burning of Qurans but regardless of whether Afghans choose to take to the streets, their faith in the American presence is waning. The feeling is mutual.
