Wednesday 4th February 2026
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The credit crisis, politics, and you

Chris Baraniuk
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The credit crisis, politics, and you

As I write this, the world is playing witness to extraordinary reports from Washington, USA, about the political wrangling and theatrics which surround the great bail-out plan offered as a solution to the credit crisis by American economists.

Last night, Congress seemed to have come to an agreement about the proposed injection of $700 billion into US financial markets, but by this morning that agreement had fallen apart, with Republicans apparently divided over the terms of the plan and other members of the House desperate that action had to be taken imminently warning that there was no time to beat around the proverbial bush.

There have even been reports that US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson got down on one knee in a moment of desperation to beg Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, to hurry acceptance of the plan he had drawn up.

Pelosi later appeared on ABC’s ‘Good Morning America’ programme and was pointedly critical about the behaviour and policies of Republican politicians during the current debate. She also blamed their term in the White House as contributing to the Credit Crisis, pointing out the Democrats’ contrasting commitment to free markets.

And to top things off, the presence of presidential hopefuls McCain and Obama seems only to have complicated things further with some commentators questioning if they should even be involved and others wondering how well the successful candidate will deal with the crisis once they are elected next month.

And the rest of the world…

The public, though, seem to be unnerved by the signals which all of this drama sends out. There is an atmosphere of cautious panic, though few politicians would dare admit it. The footage we’re getting from America of senators openly criticising the tactics of others, of crisis talks, Bush’s address to the nation (and implicitly, the world) and our own Prime Minister, fresh out of a Labour Party Conference, struggling to get attention from the American press and politicians – all of this amounts to startling and historic scenes which puts the importance of America’s dominance of the global markets into perspective.

At home, in the City, thousands of jobs have already been cut with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and re-structuring in other firms like Bradford and Bingley (yesterday) and HSBC (today).

Do Oxford students have anything to worry about?

In short, the answer to that question is ‘yes’. Maybe you hadn’t thought about it before, but the unsettling truth is that all of the above affects each and every one of us. The current climate is one which undoubtedly threatens our sense of security as energetic pre-graduates planning ambitious careers. And even if we’re not planning to start a job in the financial sector, the repercussions of an economic meltdown are already taking their toll on loans, investment, housing and employment in other sectors.

And the credit crisis is even reaching the comfort zone of student life itself. Readers of Cherwell.org will know that our Varsity sports teams are being hit by a loss of sponsorship.

In the coming weeks, Cherwell will be bringing you a great deal of analysis of the current situation and asking what it all means for us. There’ll be coverage in the newspaper as well as online as the world moves to try and bring credit under control. And if you’re still confused about the terminology and basic economic principles in all this, don’t worry, you’re certainly not alone and we’ll be supplementing our coverage with plenty of explanation as to what everything means in plain English.

World events are likely to continue affecting student society sponsorship, external investement in the University and our own personal financial prospects. Cherwell will keep you as up to date on these things as physically possible. Stay tuned.

 

 

Rolling the dice – McCain heads back to Washington

Billy Kenber
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Rolling the dice – McCain heads back to Washington

Call me a cynic but McCain’s announcement, that he’s suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work on the bailout package, is anything but a ‘non-political’ move.

Today’s Washington Post poll – the same one that put McCain nine points behind Obama nationally  ave the Democrat a big edge amongst voters concerned about the economy. Last week’s gaffes – “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” – have not helped what was already McCain’s acknowledged weak issue.

By dramatically abandoning his campaign and returning to Washington McCain is attempting to retake the issue; to portray himself as a strong force who can swoop down on Washington and work above party politics to get this mess fixed. In the face of sliding poll numbers he is hoping to

It is of course a big gamble. The Obama campaign has already hit back hard with “can’t you do more than one thing at once”-style taunts. The big problem, however, is that it’s not altogether clear that this roll of the dice is going to work. How exactly is McCain expecting to be able to sort out the bailout plan? It’s already gridlocked and, for all the bipartisan blustery, McCain’s arrival is going to further politicize an already heated issue.

(Admittedly Democratic) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said in reaction: “it would not be helpful at this time to have them come back during these negotiations and risk injecting presidential politics into this process. We need leadership; not a campaign photo op.” McCain is setting himself up for a big fall here. By returning to Washington he is placing all his chips on a rapid compromise being passed. If that doesn’t happen McCain will be in big trouble.

World Sight Day combats vision problems

Helena Zaba
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World Sight Day combats vision problems

Thursday October 9th 2008 will be officially designated World Sight Day, as part of an effort to raise awareness of preventable sight loss and vision impairment.

World Sight Day provides a platform for the work of Vision 2020, an international collective of NGOs, professional associations and eye care institutions coordinated in part by the World Health Organisation. Vision 2020 is working towards the goal of completely eradicating the 75% of cases of blindness which are treatable or preventable by the year 2020.

90% of blind people live in low-income countries, with limited access to treatments that can cure cataracts, glaucoma and refractive error – three of the major causes of blindness worldwide. Sight lost due to uncorrected refractive error can, in many cases, be restored with something as simple as a sight test and glasses.

Even within the UK, however, the problems of sight impairment loom large, especially due to our aging population. The Oxfordshire Association for the Blind (OAB) has seen its client numbers increase by 110% over the last 10 years, following a move to central Oxford from Charlbury.

‘Basically, we support visually impaired people in Oxfordshire, providing information and advice based on our expertise’ says director Colin Cure. ‘We also have a research centre in Oxford where people can come and “see” the equipment available for visually impaired people’ – which can be anything from talking watches and kitchen equipment to large-print Scrabble.

OAB will be marking World Sight Day with an exhibition in Banbury’s Cornhill centre on Saturday 11th October, in association with local social services, health care providers and patients.

Meanwhile, some research shows that even Oxford students should be aware of the effect their lifestyles can have on their vision. A 2004 Japanese study showed that prolonged periods of time spent at a computer screen may be linked to the onset of glaucoma.

With these problems of sight loss and vision impairment in mind, contact lens specialists Lens Shopper are running a competition offering the chance to win a year’s supply of contact lenses. Details can be found at http://www.lensshopper.com/world-sight-day/

Presidential ads since 1952

Billy Kenber
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Presidential ads since 1952

If you have a few minutes to spare it’s well worth heading to The Living Room Candidate, an online presentation by the US Museum of the Moving Image which presents hundreds of presidential campaign adverts dating back to 1952.

As you might expect they’ve changed almost beyond recognition, from the early cartoon songs “I like Ike, you like Ike, everybody likes Ike — for Pres-i-dent,” to the openly scare-mongering nuclear holocaust ads of LBJ’s campaign. There’s some obvious echoes of this year’s campaigns too; amongst them McGovern’s 1972 claim in ‘Convention’: “Let the opposition collect their $10 million in secret money from the privileged few, and let us find one million ordinary Americans who will contribute $25 each to this campaign, a million-member club.”

Amongst the highlights: ‘Daisy Girl Peace’ and ‘Ice Cream’ (1964, Democrat), the definitive attack ads – served successfuly to portrayal Goldwater as a reckless extremist.

‘Revolving Door’ and ‘Willie Horton’ (1988, Republican), early work from the man behind the Swift Boat ads of 2004 – racial undertones prompted a particuarly strong emotional reactions to the ads from whites.

‘The Man from Hope’ (1992, Democrat), a classic of the biography-type ads. Introduced Bill Clinton to the nation.

While I’m sharing links, this site analyses the key words from every key presidential speech since 1776; well worth a look.

I’ll have a post up on the ground game, and another on the role of race in the 2008 contest, up in the next few days or so. Oh, and I’ll be liveblogging the first Presidential debate (topic: Foreign Policy) on September 26th – the terms have been set.

Fire erupts at St John’s building site

Jason Keen
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Fire erupts at St John’s building site

Firefighters rushed to St John’s College yesterday after a blaze suddenly erupted at the building site where a new multi-million pound quadrangle is being constructed.

Workers at the site in North Oxford hastily dialled 999 after a digger suddenly exploded into flames.

A fire engine was quickly on the scene and the blaze extinguished just before 11am yesterday morning.

A spokesperson for the Oxfordshire Fire and Rescue Service later confirmed that the cause of the fire was believed to be accidental and that no-one had been hurt during the incident.

It comes a minor setback to the project billed by St John’s as “the last great quad of the city centre.” Building work on the new site, which will be named after former President of the college and Nobel Prize-winning molecular biologist Sir John Kendrew, has been progressing since the New Year.

Review: ‘The Family’

Chris Baraniuk
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Review: ‘The Family’

Channel 4’s much-hyped new documentary, ‘The Family’ has arrived.

Arrived, that is, after one of those long teaser-trailer style ad campaigns. We saw shot after shot of families glued to something utterly compelling on TV, talking about it among themselves.

It turns out that what they were watching was a new, down-to-earth take on reality programming. Some nay-sayers criticised Big Brother when it first appeared almost a decade ago – they said things like, ‘We’re just watching a bunch of people in a house. It might as well be some family down the street. Or us.’ It looks like Channel 4 were listening. But this isn’t the first time it’s been done – not by a long shot. 34 years ago film-maker Paul Watson gripped the country with a documentary of the very same name and premise.

Still, the style of things must have changed. The introduction to the first episode of the new show was succinct, informing us that we were watching the Hughes family, that they had agreed to be filmed non-stop for 100 days and that this was the result. With barely a chance to grab a bowl of popcorn we were launched straight into, er, scenes of normal everyday family life. The first quarter of the hour flew by affording shots of a woman complaining about her imminent 40th birthday, a rebellious teenage daughter, and a man getting ready for work. I’ll admit, as the first ad-break rolled, I asked myself whether anything interesting had actually happened.

However, the rest of the episode unfolded into a gripping incendiary outing for the Hughes clan. At the centre of the tension was our main plot-device – second-eldest daughter Emily (19). The rebellious one. An argument quickly erupted and in the cluttered, intimate space of the Hughes family home we were invited to be as voyueristic as TV audiences have ever been and view all the gnashing of teeth, the repeated inquiries, the awkward pauses and clashes of character that contribute to a good old family melt-down.

Thinking of this programme as a reality show is unavoidable, but perhaps it’s unadvisable too. Because, we won’t – we can’t – watch this as pure unadulterated footage. 100 days of filming? The swathes of mundanity which have been edited out must be monumental. No, this is, in the sense of production, a scripted show. Little touches around the carefully chosen shots we see (musical interludes, subtitling and an occasional, bemused narrative from son Thomas) create a subtle but important framework around the images and audio which have been accrued.

In fact, I want to call this show a soap. Not a conventional one, I’ll grant you, but this is the stuff soaps are made of. That antagonism I mentioned above is something we all can relate to, and the reality of the individual moments comes through thick and fast. We’re not waiting to see if the actors will play their parts with appropriate finesse – they’re simply being themselves.

So OK, the interest is there, but it remains to be seen how the ‘series’ will progress – and what anyone (besides a few giddy social anthropologists) will actually learn from this. Indeed, the hard-editing of the footage might take its toll on us all. The first episode thrived on the arguments between parents and daughter – but these were lumped together to form a good two-thirds of the show. Watching these bouts of emotional wrestling one after the other was actually quite difficult. Off-screen, the Family may have had time to re-group, but we didn’t.

And one other thing: the cameras, of course, are everywhere in the house, with just a couple of shots available of the front-door and the patio. Otherwise, the ‘characters’ in this highly-strung drama are free to come and go as they like. There’s a weird, spooky feeling that we, the silent viewers, are part of the ever-static house, a place which simultaneously shelters and exposes the Family to millions.

I’ve got to say, I’m hooked.

Uni boffins unlock body-consciousness in brains

Kathryn Gresswell
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Uni boffins unlock body-consciousness in brains

Oxford University researchers have discovered how our brain’s sense of body ownership can be manipulated by illusion.

Scientists from the university conducted a series of experiments incorporating what’s known as ‘the rubber hand illusion’ – a well-known psychological trick in which a participant’s hand is concealed, while a prosthetic hand is placed in their line of vision and stimulated.

The concealed hand and the rubber hand were stroked simultaneously, leading the participant to believe they were experiencing real physical sensations in the prosthetic hand.

As a result, the temperature of the participants’ concealed, real, hand substantially dropped, revealing that the human body will abandon a limb if it believes it has found an adequate replacement.

The researchers were astonished, and say their results show characteristics of the human nervous system never seen before.

“An exciting find”

Professor Charles Spence, from Oxford’s Department of Experimental Psychology, said, “This is an exciting find that will provide a better understanding of the link, demonstrating that the brain is malleable enough to incorporate changes.”

His team’s recently published research, which involved collaboration with other experts from Italy and the Netherlands, has already received a flurry of international praise.

The experiments were intended to replicate distorted perceptions of body ownership reported by patients suffering from conditions such as schizophrenia, autism or strokes.

“This is the first time anyone has looked to see what effect the rubber hand illusion has on people’s own bodies,” commented Prof Spence.

“Studies have been done on patients with schizophrenia and autism, but never on healthy subjects” he said.

Further investigations by specialists into the subject are continuing.

Lehman collapse stifles Varsity sponsorship

Liz Bennett
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Lehman collapse stifles Varsity sponsorship

Chaos on the world markets spilled over into the sheltered world of Oxford sport yesterday, as the annual Varsity rugby match lost its sponsor, the bankrupt financiers Lehman Brothers.

Peter Bridges, Chair of Oxford’s rugby club (OURFC), has insisted that the match will go ahead in December.

Given the deepening financial crisis, OURFC may struggle to replace its sponsor for the match, traditionally the biggest event in its calendar.

Bridges admitted that the current climate “doesn’t make things easier” but said finding a new sponsor was “not an impossibility.”

He refused to disclose how large a hole in OURFC’s budget had been left by the demise of Lehman Brothers, citing confidentiality agreements with the defunct bank. But he said it was “obviously a blow” and would “have an impact, but not to the extent that match can’t go ahead.”

Bridges emphasised that OURFC were big enough to cope with the crisis but would still “like a lot of support” at the match.

OURFC’s website still advertises the “Lehman Brothers Varsity Match” – a deal the Oxford and Cambridge rugby clubs that was set to run until 2010.

Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, lost billions of dollars in the US mortgage market before filing for bankruptcy yesterday. In response, stock markets around the world have experienced a second day of turmoil.

 

Council blocks Bod’s book depository

Jason Keen
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Council blocks Bod’s book depository

The future of Oxford University’s world famous Bodleian Library has been left hanging in the balance after an appeal against plans blocking a £29million extension was thrown out.

The latest blow to the library’s hopes of development came when a planning inspector hearing the appeal dismissed the Bod’s ambitious plans on the grounds that they would damage the city’s historic ‘dreaming spires’ skyline and that there was too much of a flood risk.

Dannie Onn, the Government-appointed inspector, said in his report that the ruling was based on the stipulation that the depository “should not undermine the character of the city, which is a fundamental asset to the university.”

Permission for the eight million volume capacity book depository to be built was initially granted by the strategic planning committee late last year, in a tight vote of six to five, but days later the decision was overturned when 14 Oxford City councillors insisted the application should be referred to the full council. Oxford University’s subsequent appeal of the decision has now also be quashed.

‘Over-congestion’ and ‘unsafe conditions’

Dr Sarah Thomas, Oxford University’s Head Librarian, said that the decision had left much of the Bodleian’s invaluable collection at risk and that staff would have to quickly generate new ideas on how to save it.

“This is obviously a great disappointment but the pragmatic approach is to move on,” she said.

“The Library has suffered from over-congestion in unsafe conditions because of inadequate storage for years.

“We will now need to be creative about rethinking our management of collections. Tough decisions will need to be taken.”

Among the organisations which objected to the planned development at the Osney Mead industrial estate on the city’s outskirts were The Oxford Preservation Trust, Oxford Civic Society, Oxfordshire Campaign to Protect Rural England and Oxford Green Belt Network.

All raised concerns that the new building would clutter Oxford’s famous “dreaming spires” skyline.

Hopes for Osney Mead over

Oxford City councillor Colin Cook confirmed that Oxford University’s hopes to develop Osney Mead were almost certainly over.

“I would have thought so,” he said. “At least on that particular site anyway.” He added that several alternative sites had been suggested at the planning inquiry, but most of them lay outside of the city’s boundaries.

“We will work with the university in whatever way we can to achieve the book depository for them that they clearly need.”

Apart from the collection itself, this latest ruling against the library’s expansion programme could also put plans to construct a new £5 million display hall in jeopardy.

Publishing magnate Julian Blackwell, of Blackwell publishing and retailers, provided the funding for this project in a generous gift to the Bodleian made earlier this year – the largest single cash donation ever made to a university library in the UK.

The gift had been intended to pay for the building of Blackwell Hall, allowing the Bodleian’s priceless collection to be more freely exhibited to the public, but staff at the university confirmed at the time that the scheme could come under threat if the planned extension at Osney Mead was not built.

The Bodelian possesses a copy of almost every book ever printed in England and adds an additional 5,000 volumes to its catalogue every week. Its treasures include the earliest complete book written in the English language, Shakespeare’s First Folio and the original manuscripts of many classic novels, such as Mary Shelly’s “Frankenstein.”


Cherwell visited the Bodleian’s underground book stacks last year

 

Predicting an October Surprise (Part Two)

Billy Kenber
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Predicting an October Surprise (Part Two)

 

For Nos. 1-4, click here.

5) Iran admits to having nuclear weapons

The dominant issue in the election at the moment is the economy, and it’s an issue the Democrats are winning on, all the way down the ticket to congressional races. Senator McCain’s earlier admission in the primary season that he ‘doesn’t really understand the economy’ and his failure so far to produce a detailed economic plan beyond ‘I’m going to balance the budget and cut taxes,’ hasn’t helped.

Nevertheless, in spite of public feeling towards the war in Iraq and Obama’s trenchant opposition to the war foreign policy is an issue that McCain dominates. It’s partly a question of biography (he’s a POW if you didn’t notice from the 60% of his nomination acceptance speech that mentioned this) but it’s also a question of Senate experience and voters’ traditional confidence in Republicans on issues of security.

If Iran was conclusively found to have nuclear weapons America would be forced to respond. Bush might – West Wing-style – leave the next President with a new war to fight, he might bide his time with economic sanctions, diplomacy, and UN negotiations. Either way, this would be of tremendous help to the Republicans.

Of course, as with a lot of these surprises timing is everything. Should this happen on the eve of the Vice-Presidential debate for example, Biden’s foreign policy expertise will ensure that the debate is car-crash television. The best hope of success for the Republican ticket with this ‘October surprise’ would be it happening before the foreign policy Presidential debate, or near the end of October, so Obama has no time left to dissuade typical voter reactions to security issues.

Would help: Republicans

6) Major breakdown in situation in Iraq

This would really throw open the race, not least because it wouldn’t necessarily automatically benefit either side. On the one hand, McCain has really owned the Iraq issue in the last few weeks and the sudden breakdown in the situation with throw his claims that the ‘surge’ has worked. On the other hand however, it would also throw Obama’s plan to set a timetable for full withdrawal within 16 months. McCain could criticise the Democratic nominee by pointing out that Iraq isn’t stable enough for withdrawal and that the plan to begin handing back power to the Iraqi government has been rushed; but Obama could just as easily suggest that the GOP’s judgement with the ‘surge’ wasn’t all he’s talked it up to be and a reminder of the disastrous state of the Iraq war would surely boost support for the man who opposed it from the start.

Perhaps the ace in the pack here is Senator Biden. While Palin wouldn’t be able to weigh in on the issue without highlighting her complete lack of foreign policy experience, a breakdown in current tactics could well throw fresh support by Biden’s long-touted plan to split the country in three, leaving almost autonomous Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite areas. That could be enough to ensure this surprise would benefit the Democrats.

Would help: Democrats, probably

7) Terrorist attack on US domestic soil

In the same way that a McCain health scare would be game over for the Republicans, a terrorist attack would, in all likelihood,

Slogans of hope and change, and the promise of a fresh young face would, I feel, be wiped out should a terrorist attack take place on US soil, especially if it is linked to Al-Qaeda. In times of vulnerability voters generally become more conservative, they turn to what they know. Expect the familiar face of an experienced, ex-military man with the slogan ‘Country First’ to be irresistible. For many Americans (80% at the current count) President Bush has taken the country in the wrong direction. However, he has nevertheless succeeded in one key respect – he’s kept the country safe since 9/11. Republicans still have a huge edge amongst voters on security issues, and I can’t see Americans being ready to elect a foreign-born, foreign-looking man with the middle name Hussein in the immediate aftermath of a terrorist atrocity, as irrational as that may be.

A failed or foiled attack would have a similar (though weaker) effect of swinging the election to McCain’s favour but would not quite be game over for the Democrats. More likely, and still damaging for the Obama-Biden ticket, would be if the US government were to raise the colour-coded threat level in October as happened in 2004.

Would help: Republicans

The unknown

Of course, the reason politicians fear an ‘October surprise’ is because they’re so-called because they’re not predicted and they’re not planned for.

The biggest game changer of all could be something no-one sees coming. We’ll just have to wait and see.

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