Saturday 16th August 2025
Blog Page 396

Little Giveaways

CW: suicide.

They had turned a corner, bickering with an intensity that mirrored the brashness of the red-gold leaves, and their vibrant expensive jewellery, scarves, “vintage” satchels. One girl broke away from the others, declaring grandly – ‘It’s cold, it’s cold, winter’s coming!’

Her friends stopped. Elise shook her head, shivering. Alicia laughed. Rin briskly rubbed her hands and countered, ‘Then you should’ve given him a coat, not a sandwich.’

But they were hungry, standing in the croissant-scented path sweeping down to reveal new assortments of cafes, bars, lovely restaurants with flowers and origami napkins. 

‘He was hungry!’

‘Well then, Coralie, why didn’t you give him more?’

Rin pressed down confidently on the handle of the nearest coffee shop and let herself in. The bell above the door rang, a mop-haired boy smiled in welcome: ‘What would you like?’ 

It was quieter here; the bustling world outside dimmed a little. The friends settled themselves at a table in the corner, putting down their bags, clasping their mugs of hot chocolate.

‘I’m going to kill myself,’ said Elise.

Alicia glanced at her and looked away. Rin was occupied in doling out the walnut cake, fussily making sure each slice was the same, surreptitiously licking the knife. Jazz was being played over the stereo like theme music, as if they were acting in a television drama where each character had some essential trait, some crucial role. The window framed them, as well as the ornate post office across the street, towards which a grey figure was moving, softly. 

‘He’ll get hurt,’ murmured Coralie. A uniformed officer had stridden over, snatched the edge of a white duvet, and was gesticulating in anger. By his feet, the lone man’s breath rose in a curling, pleading mist.

‘Ah, he’s shouting back,’ observed Rin. She passed over a lily-bordered plate of cake.

‘I mean, it was all the food I had on me,’ Coralie argued. ‘And I didn’t want to give him money, he might spend it on alcohol or –’

‘Or drugs? Wow, Coralie, I thought you were against social stereotyping.’

‘This is just being practical, it’s what the charity warned…’

‘And your answer was an avocado and jackfruit sandwich? How very thoughtful. But what if he’s allergic? Maybe he actually wants a cheese and bacon muffin. Maybe you’re perpetuating a cycle of dependency that’ll culminate in all your cash being frittered away. Your parent’s cash, I should add.’

‘Leave her alone, Rin,’ said Alicia, laughing again. ‘She doesn’t mean any harm, it’s only for her CV.’

Coralie slammed down her teaspoon with an ineffectual clink. ‘Be serious, it’s people’s lives we’re talking about!’

‘I’m going to kill myself,’ whispered Elise. ‘I’m going to kill myself.’

‘People’s lives!’ cried Coralie. 

She gathered herself up, rushed outside, the bell of the door clanging in her wake. Mugs and spoons in hand, they watched as she flew over to the officer and displayed her charity contact cards, fanning them out explaining, presumably, what each was for while the figure stared, wide-eyed and, as she fumbled in her satchel for something else, dashed madly off.

‘You can’t help,’ said Elise, fiddling nervously with her sleeves as Coralie returned, red-faced, to her seat. ‘Why can’t you help?’

‘I can, I’m doing my best! It’s you – you never do anything, you never try!’

‘Have some cake,’ said Rin, innocently.

‘Nothing happens if you don’t try. And winter’s the worst; without a home, they have to prepare…’

They retraced their path, enjoying the golden glaze of the autumn sun on skeletal branches, Rin telling jokes about their mutual friends. They reached the crossroads, Rin leaned back against a wall, and jumped. There was someone huddled in the nook. She peered down.

‘Hey, Cora, it’s the guy who received the brunt of your largesse.’

Now they noticed the stillness.

‘Is he dead?’

‘He’s asleep!’

She’s asleep!’

‘Check!’

Coralie was wearing gloves – pretty burgundy leather things, trimmed with faux fur. She reached out tentatively, trying to feel the woman’s pulse and, failing that, her breath. 

‘Take off your gloves, idiot!’ said Rin impatiently. ‘They’re too thick, you can’t feel anything.’

Her friend had a frightened expression; she drew back her gloved hands. ‘It’s too cold.’

‘Come on, everything’s fine.’

‘I will, you know,’ said Elise softly, her voice shaking. ‘I will.’

Image via Pixabay.

Mother

Oxford is my mother. 

She cradles me like Moses was cradled, along the Thames’ flow, 

And as I grow I mark out the bounds of her love

With my baby-footed steps, 

Aging on her terms.

We fall out, occasionally.

Her winter harshness breathes cold into my bones.

She threatens me with long weeks, 

Late nights, and tells me 

You’re not good enough.

She pushes me to seek refuge in my room, 

Where my only view is the bins, 

And her dreaming spires force nightmares upon me: 

Her famed beauty shows me up.

– But her blues soon thaw into the coming of spring.

Her embrace thickens the air with sun;

Buildings drip with treacle-thick honey, 

And the world flocks for a taste.

She held me during my first break-up,

Smoothed a stone hollow for me in the shadows

Of the cloisters at 3am, as I paced in the dark with fear.

And as a man who I no longer knew

Left for someplace intangible,

I waltzed in her arms down the high street, 

She took the lead over cobbles and narrow passageways, 

And let me go – free.  

Artwork by Maebh Howell.

Specks

From a space we might call “above”, an Entity watches – gargantuan, unfathomable, other. The furthest bounds of space condense into insignificance within the swathe of her shadow. She endures beyond the limit of infinity, bearing the burden of time untold, and becoming numb to all its exhaustion. She witnesses whole galaxies wink in and out of existence; to her existence itself has become trivial, insubstantial, a fever dream. 

Sometimes, the Entity extends – languorously, if speed can be perceived relative to the whole of eternity – and spins in her palm a dreamy sapphire sphere sheathed in cotton-candy mist. Though it is just one world, she already knows too much, and dreads knowing more. The Entity is too far away, too sweeping in her ministrations to understand all of the sadness, to relieve all of the hardship. But now, as she is wont to do, she decides to try. 

Slowly, she becomes aware of the multitude of awarenesses – every little living speck on the glowing blue planet she perceives with such clarity and depth. It seems to be an important time – bells are tinkling in the wind, under rows of soft lights, but they seem devoid of an audience. The living specks are instead huddled within their shelters, and this time around, many of them seem to be separate from each other. The Entity senses their yearning, hears their secret wishes: to coalesce, to intertwine. These strands of longing stretch across the planet’s surface, cocooning it in a web of desires that never come to fruition.

A melancholy monotony has settled over this world – the deafening stillness after it has stretched to breaking point, and burnt out in a final, all-consuming roar of destruction. But underneath the monochrome, the Entity can feel it – twining through the rudimentary patchwork of broken life, painstakingly piecing it back together – something like a network of glimmering golden thread. 

Like many of the specks’ emotions, the content of the thread is cacophonous, clumsy – an amalgamation of hope, stubbornness, impatience. Even so, the Entity understands somehow that these feelings, immaterial at first glance, are born of a deeper care – a care that seems to rivet one speck to another against all that may come against them. The care behind a, though unspoken, unified promise of better days to come.  

It is now that she, not in despair, finds herself weeping. Perhaps her tears will fall tomorrow, blanketing the decorated fir trees in the squares, as snow – cleansing, healing, new.

Image via Pixabay.

A Quick Trip Far Away

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One summer, a summer which now seems to have passed by long ago, I slept and dreamt for the first time on the mainland. My brother and I were on a whistle-stop tour of all the major cities. On our last stop of several weeks, in a large and bustling city on the coast of the bluest sea I have ever seen, my brother and I decided to stay a while longer. We decided to stay for no particular reason. It was only that neither of us could bring ourselves to leave just yet. While there, we quickly fell into the routine of almost always eating at this same café: Café Gula–. I know there’s a letter missing at the end but it’s cut off in all the photographs I have from that time. We ate there so often because the food was always so good. 

I remember the first time we stumbled across the place. It was late at night. The trees along the small, dimly lit residential side-streets were shaded indigo. We were in one or other of the city’s districts—I cannot remember which—looking for dinner somewhere. I’m sure we must have passed several perfectly good places along the way, but for some reason we kept searching. My brother was on his penny board, which changed colour from muddy grey to bright green and back again as he pedalled into and out of the sour casts of streetlamps. In actual fact, in daylight, the board was white. He was younger than I was. 

After about an hour of wandering, my brother spotted a narrow alley that he said would be perfect for slaloming. On a slight downward slope, the alley was squeezed between two blocks of terraced houses. Short metal bollards were dotted in a line down the path’s centre. As he slalomed between them, shooting down the alley in a monochrome blur, his legs bent and arced rhythmically, almost violently, like I would imagine slender birches or flimsy, plastic coffee stirrers blown in a gale. I must have been running alongside him at the time, half hunched over to be level with his legs, because, as I see it now, the black metal bollards, which I know had only been waist-height, seem to fly above my head at lightning speed like dark motorway overpasses. Maybe I had been holding a camera and was bending down for the ultimate wide-angle action shot. Maybe not. 

It was when we finally reached the bottom, my brother’s skateboard flicked into the air and swiftly caught in the sweaty pit beneath his arm, that we saw the gold illuminated letters: G U L A –. 

The food hit the spot so we came back the next day, this time for lunch. With my brother’s board left back in the apartment where we were lodging, we barely noticed the alley as we sauntered through it in the midday heat. It was no longer a place; it was merely the way to Café Gula–. We were able to see in the daylight that the café sat opposite a beautiful, small square. Surrounded by red-brick houses and paved in red-brick tiles, the square seemed to radiate a welcoming fireside warmth. I was about to head down the steps, which led from the enclosing side-streets down into the square’s centre, to have a look around but my brother was already ordering inside the café. 

I only got to explore the square shortly before the end of our trip. We had, by then, been visiting Café Gula– very regularly, almost daily. The staff knew us, if not by our names, then by our still pasty white skin. My brother had brought his board with him once more on that last visit and, after we had eaten, spent some time ollying down the steps into the square or grinding down their metal handrails. I think there were handrails. He had a way of digesting his food quickly. 

The square was surprisingly empty given that it was a perfectly sunny afternoon. I noticed for the first time that in the middle of this vacant square stood a small white statue, alone. As I approached it, I vaguely remember, I recognised its white marble face. I touched it. But now, what was likely just an ordinary historical bust has become, in my failed efforts to sharpen and restore my recollection of it, a sort of muddled-up Moore. Its forms have been contorted, its precisely carved features blurred as if I were squinting at them through tears.

I can’t remember what prompted me but I was made to turn around suddenly. Perhaps it had been the clatter of my brother’s skateboard falling out from beneath his feet onto the hard red brick. Regardless, I saw that there behind me, in the opposite corner of the square, stood three fluffy white dogs. They were one of those small yappy breeds, but on this occasion all three identical dogs were perfectly silent, obediently standing at the ends of their three pink leads. From where I was standing, they looked like cotton-wool balls. Their owner was standing just out of sight, just behind one of the walls that lined the many narrow alleys leading out and away from the square. For all I knew, the three pink leads stretched infinitely beyond that wall before they converged into someone’s hand. 

Their owner was presumably in a hurry; his or her efforts to haul the dogs away rippled down the pink leads, but to no avail. It was as if the leads were mere ribbons and the tiny white dogs were no longer light like cotton wool, but weighted like lumps of limestone, anchoring each of the leads to ancient earth. They stood completely still. Even from afar, I could see the three pairs of black, beady eyes staring right through me. 

I assume they must have been dragged off eventually. I don’t remember much after that. Like those dogs, I suppose, a few days later, I was also made to leave that place behind. My brother and I had been brought to that square by chance, by an opportune slalom, by the relentless hunger of young men. I never owned that square. I never had any right to remain there. I owe that square to that sweltering, red-bricked city. I thank it for the countless hours that it allowed me to spend within its walls. 

But unlike those three dogs, I know I can return whenever I wish. I can be anywhere, in any season, in any mind. All I have to do is shut my eyes, feel my way back along my own taut, narrow pink lead and abseil down into time’s black.

Image Credit to the author.

Rules to Live By in Your New Home

No 1. Label your collar

to avoid feeling ornamental.


No 2. Don’t wipe away the blue blood,

even if it’s like a bookkeeper’s thumb.


No 3. Use cologne to hide.

Your shame emanates

like a freshly peeled orange.


(Some let their ink-nosebleeds drip

and stain. They gnaw on the rind of fruit

plucked elsewhere as detergent, or

for nutrition).

Image Credit to Jackson Palmer.

21st Century Midas

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She has been sitting in that dark bookshop café for longer than she cares to confess. Her daughter, who has slotted her dotty mum in between lectures and ice-hockey, is fumbling off her raincoat, drip-dropping apologies.

‘I will get us something hot to drink,’ she says.

Glass cases full of cakes, a warm waft of coffee, the nice man asking if he can help her. ‘Yes-yes, this please, and…’

And there it is, my father’s low voice looming over my shoulders, as I order a hot chocolate in a blue café. ‘Look,’ he says, as I set down the heavy cup, as I lift it again and taste, delicately, the childish cream. ‘Look, you have drunk £3.15. You fool, that’s £3.15 you’ve eaten.’ Clink, the cup on the saucer, the coins sliding down my throat.

It costs so much to keep my head these days.

‘Don’t.’  Her daughter is frowning, the hand holding a spoonful of walnut cake frozen in the air. ‘You’ve taken a bite out of £2.50,’ she says again, unable to resist. But her daughter eats on.

‘How calm you are,’ the mother marvels, and the girl laughs, sprinkling crumbs.  They are so busy, dashing to societies, dashing off notes, in this clockwork city of tick-boxed dreams: there isn’t any time. 

But she has a mindfulness app, a Fitbit, a boyfriend with good taste in gifts (‘I looked it up after – it was a forty quid bottle!’). And then there’s work. ‘The company is so stinking rich; it makes me sick. They’ll even send me to New York, think of that!’

‘My golden child,’ smiles the woman fondly (New York! Think of that!). She can see her little girl in fairy wings, twirling at the party in the sky while the gods shower her with gifts, and she stirs the chocolate smoothness in her glazed blue mug.

‘Papa’s sent me a postcard from Japan. Of Sakura. Cherry blossom. What have you been up to?’

Startled, she drops her knife with a clatter, wincing at the daughter’s pointed look to her missing ring. She remembers it was eighteen carat gold, but the diamond was false. There had been, perhaps, a magnificent wedding, all her friends were delighted, she was resplendent in silk and white lace. It is not her fault she has lost, is losing – losing this and that, little things, her glasses, the odd word or two. Nondescript and fumbling… a silly old woman. ‘Another script.’

‘Oh good. What about?’

‘There is a blue café,’ she says hesitantly. ‘And it rains all the time in the blue café, yet no one quite realises, and the cakes are going soft and the cups overspilling. Buried in the cakes are coins and so they keep ordering – fat little muffins, iced buns, lovely pastries – to stuff themselves – ’

‘Stuff themselves? Is it a critique of capitalism or something? How does it end?’

‘She will,’ cries the mother, rallying. ‘A man with his pocket knife. Slices them open.’

‘Look,’ says this gilded girl impatiently, a fierce intensity entering her voice. ‘Stop worrying like that. You know perfectly well that everything you touch turns into gold. I know it’s hard, but if you let go of the script the editors will take care of the rest.’

‘And turn it into gold,’ she whispers.

Her hands are shaking quietly. ‘What if,’ she says, half-pleading, half-playful. ‘I’ve had enough?’

The girl stares.

‘Now you will look after me,’ her mother says dreamily. ‘Living on cake. In a blue teapot.’ She sees her daughter’s face, and suddenly pushes back her chair.

‘I am so glad you are happy.’

Something is wrong. The angle of the café, the lines cutting across the books. She should not be seeing the door close behind her mother’s back, with this quickening sense of dread. She will open that tiny green-painted door. She will hold her hand out to her mother.

Green unfolds onto blue: that white speck in the night is her mother. She steps out and then

In the split second that widens before her eyes she can see

headlights

                                                            pale-faced

                                                                                    bright

With a gasp her breath is caught on a cliff-hanger of sidewalk. She stumbles, hears the thud of a body on tarmac. The air is so very cold.

From the fumes of the car rises the close stench of escape.

Image via Pixabay.com.

University releases new guidance for returning students

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The University has released updated guidance for students returning to Oxford this term. Under the guidance, students will still be able to return to university under the previous exemptions outlined. All other students will be advised not to travel back until mid-February, with all teaching taking place online until at least then. 

The groups that will be able to return are as follows:

  • Students taking part in initial teacher training or medical courses that had been advised to return to Oxford as usual previously. 
  • Some students on additional courses involving professional accreditations.
  • International students that have remained in the UK or have already arrived back, or have booked travel which cannot be rescheduled.
  • Students that have stayed in university or college accommodation over the Christmas vacation.
  • Students that require additional support, including those that are having mental health difficulties.
  • Students that do not have access to appropriate study spaces or facilities at home.

The University has stated that students that believe they meet these criteria will need to discuss their plans with their colleges before returning. The guidance encourages students to access “online learning from home wherever possible.”
Residency requirements have also been suspended until the end of Hilary.

“There are measures in place to ensure your removal”: Keble students return without permission

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Students from Keble College have been “turning up to the college without any permission or having informed the accommodation office”, according to a post on their student noticeboard.

Students have been reportedly arriving at night and asking for keys from the Porter’s Lodge or using room keys that they held over the Christmas vacation. While the statement did not confirm how many students had returned by this method, it did give some idea of who: “it will come as no surprise that freshers have been specifically mentioned as coming back without permission”.

An email from Keble College’s Domestic Bursar stated that “those of you who have arrived back in College without permission… have been reported to the Dean.” It further mentioned that the lodge will now turn away any students who simply arrive without having received prior permission.

The statement on Keble Noticeboard continued that “College is aware of who has turned up unannounced” and that such students “will be removed from college… you cannot retrospectively say that exemptions apply. If you do not decide to leave, there are measures in place to ensure your removal.”

They have urged for people to take the current situation in the UK seriously and follow the rules of contacting the accommodation office and asking for permission to return if there is a legitimate reason to do so: “There have been many people who have done so and college has had absolutely no problem with people returning under these circumstances”.

However, the email from the Domestic Bursar mentioned that any students’ requests to return would have to wait for further information from the University: “as soon as we have guidance from the University as to when and how you can come back we will be in touch.” They have also stated that university guidelines and further college information will follow later this week.

The Domestic Bursar further made clear that “communal spaces within College will only remain open if social distancing is adhered to, any transgressions and these areas will be shut, this also applies to communal kitchens.”

Cherwell has contacted Keble College for comment.

Image Credit: Nikos D. Karabelas. Licence: CC BY 4.0.

BREAKING: University suspends residency requirements for all of Hilary

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In an email to students, Balliol College confirmed that “the University has removed the usual student “residency requirement” for the whole of the Term”. This means that students will not need to apply for residency dispensation if they do not wish to return to Oxford later in the term, even if the national lockdown is lifted to allow students to return. In a Q and A with University staff in mid-November, Pro-Vice-Chancellor Martin Williams explained the University’s previous decision to maintain residency requirements: “Our feeling is that there is a lot more to being an Oxford student than just the face-to-face teaching”, including “access to labs, access to libraries, access to each other, to the opportunity to work in a scholarly environment”. Balliol’s email continued that “the University will be sending out messages to students later today on the latest position”. No information has currently been provided regarding plans for residency requirements – or lack thereof – in Trinity term.

Beyond residency, the provision of facilities like libraries have also prompted confusion. Centrally, only 4 selected hub libraries – the Old Bodleian, Social Science Library, Sackler Library and Vere Harmsworth Library – are open for study before the start of Hilary. In a tweet, the Bodleian Libraries confirmed that, despite lockdown regulations, these libraries would remain open: “Following the government’s announcement regarding lockdown, we can confirm that our services remain the same as yesterday”. However, the Radcliffe Camera and Gladstone Link were closed today. An email to History students claimed that a “shortage of staff” was the cause. The email continued: “Click & Collect will continue to be offered in libraries as in MT. In Humanities, this includes EFL, MFL, PTFL, Sackler, Taylor Inst. Library, VHL” and that “loans will not be due back until 29 January (likely be reviewed in due course)”.

No specific guidance appears to have been released regarding college libraries. In an email to students, Lady Margaret Hall claimed that “ideally, we would like to keep the library in operation both physically and virtually” but that they were reliant upon University guidance. At Pembroke, students were told that if they were already present in College, they could be given “access to the library in limited numbers for the time being”. An email from Magdalen claimed that “the College Libraries remain open” but urged students to check before going to other libraries. It is currently unclear whether college libraries will be allowed to remain open under the national lockdown or University guidance.

Previously, many colleges urged students not to return – even if they had been previously allowed to by college staff – until the University had worked through the legislation. At St Hugh’s, “any students who were considering travelling to College based on one of the criteria listed below” were asked “to not travel to College at this time until we have had further clarification from the University”. Meanwhile, St Hilda’s students were told “you should NOT make plans to return to college, even if you had previously booked a date to return this coming weekend” and that changes to government guidance may cause the dining hall to be shut. 

The Oxford University Student Union has responded to the announcement of a national lockdown, promising to advocate for students who may be disadvantaged by the new restrictions. While they were unable to guarantee measures which would be taken, they emphasised that meetings would be held in coming days to ensure students would not be negatively impacted.

“Following the government announcement on 4th January 2021 of a national lockdown, we understand the difficulty that all students are facing regarding many aspects of their University experience in the coming months.

“Oxford SU is the recognised voice of students at the University of Oxford and we want to reassure all members that we are continually lobbying and representing you on the issues that matter. We are here to support you in any way we can.

“We share your valid anger, frustration, and disappointment with this government which continues to fail to put students at the fore of its decision making. We stand in support and solidarity with students who are facing widespread uncertainty.

“We know the current situation is incredibly difficult and that much of the academic year remains uncertain. We are working hard with the University and Colleges to clarify information surrounding accommodation, academic expectations and welfare provisions.

“We believe that the University must recognise the academic challenges by reassessing workloads and assessment practices. Whilst it may take some time for the University to finalise any changes to course assessment, it is paramount that the University acts as soon as possible to outline their planned steps and changes to assessment where possible. We will continue to lobby the University including at a divisional and departmental level on these issues over the coming days and will be updating students on progress next week.

“We continue to lobby to ensure students unable to return to Oxford in Hilary Term 2021 are not be financially penalised [sic]. Students should not have to pay for accommodation that they are unable to live in. This should include reimbursing graduate students on long-term tenancies for the time period during which they are unable to use their rooms.

“We will be providing a further update as soon as we can with information around our next steps for lobbying and resources for you. We will also be holding a briefing session for Common Room Presidents and Campaign chairs tomorrow at 5pm. This a fast-moving situation, we remain committed to actively lobbying and working closely with the collegiate University to ensure students are supported.”

This article contains breaking news and may be updated as more information becomes available.

High hopes, near misses, and hidden gems: the mystery of Expected Goals in the Premier League

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Expect the worst and hope for the best. That’s what they say, isn’t it? This mantra is one that would’ve been worth following for Brighton and Hove Albion fans watching their team’s Premier League match against Sheffield United at around 12:40pm on Sunday 20th December (this included 2000 lucky social-distancing attendees at the AMEX Stadium and at least 20,000 others – one being my poor self – yelling at their TVs from their living rooms). Yet with our opponents having only managed a single point from 13 previous games this season, languishing at the bottom of the league table like an overripe satsuma in a Christmas stocking, and now down to 10 players after John Lundstram’s 40th minute red card, we Albion fans could surely have been forgiven for thinking that our second home win in all of 2020 was on its way as a matter of course.

Having been a Brighton fan since the age of seven, however, I probably should’ve foreseen that my team was to spend the next 50 minutes of action passing the ball back and forth outside the Sheffield penalty box, conspiring to let a 20-year-old defender score past us on his debut, and only equalising with three of the 90 minutes remaining, through ex-wonderkid Danny Welbeck’s fifth Premier League goal in three seasons. After the game, fans and statisticians alike remarked that Brighton had chalked up 3.35 ‘Expected Goals’ over the course of the match, a tally far superior to Sheffield United’s 0.92: with our attackers having missed multiple open goals – one hitting the woodwork from about 10 centimetres out – we were well within our rights to have anticipated a better final result for our team.

What exactly are ‘Expected Goals’, then – and why do Brighton have so many of them? The Expected Goals (xG) metric comes from an analysis of each shot taken during a 90-minute match, and the probability that it will result in a goal, based on factors such as the shot’s location on the pitch, the pattern of play leading to it, and the body part used to shoot. A team’s total xG for one match is then calculated as the sum of the goal probabilities for each shot taken – against Sheffield United, Brighton had enough high-quality chances to have been expected, on average, to have netted three times, as opposed to their disappointing single goal in the 1-1 draw. In theory, Brighton are good at getting into positions where they are likely to score – but their lacklustre finishing hugely lets them down, leading to a massive underperformance in relation to xG.

Thanks to its insightful posts comparing Expected Goals with often wildly-different real-life results, Twitter user ‘The xG Philosophy’ has racked up nearly 90,000 followers over the course of the last few Premier League seasons, becoming a fundamental part of in-game analysis and the customary post-match banter (“Say the line @xGPhilosophy” / “Brighton won the xG” reads one Simpsons-inspired meme that seems to appear after every Albion defeat, much to my chagrin).

The account is run by James Tippett, author of the book also entitled ‘The Expected Goals Philosophy’, which puts forward the case for xG as the meaningful stat in modern-day football and details a number of recent Premier League and Championship success stories revolving around Expected Goals, such as Brentford’s xG-based scouting model, which has seen them recruit a number of hidden gems such as Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins, West Ham’s Said Benrahma, and Brighton’s own Neal Maupay, who are now plying their trade at the very top of English football.

There seems to be a strong case, then, for valuing Expected Goals almost as much as actual ones when it comes to match analysis, player scouting, and even betting on football. Except that this is quite obviously not a watertight method – just look at Brighton’s performance this season. Over the course of 15 Premier League games played at the time of writing, my team has amassed 23.85 Expected Points (based on opposing teams’ xG scores from each particular game), placing us 5th (FIFTH!) in the ‘xG table’, a bonkers parallel universe where we rank higher than big hitters such as Tottenham (22.23), Manchester United (22.28), and Leicester (22.91). Of course, in real life we are almost 11 points worse off, sitting 16th in the table above only Burnley, Fulham, West Brom, and (thank goodness) Sheffield United, and with a real chance of being relegated to the Championship come the end of the season. No wonder my cranberry sauce tasted distinctly bitter on December 25th.

Interpreting Expected Goals is a tricky business: does Brighton’s huge xG underperformance mean that we’re much better than we think, absolutely crap, or just really unlucky? I’d argue that it’s a bit of each. Our manager Graham Potter has been praised for his attacking style of football, with exciting, pacey players like Tariq Lamptey and Solly March creating lots of chances, no matter who we are playing against. Yet our strikers seem more likely to squander these chances than gobble them up: top scorer Maupay has underperformed his personal xG by a massive 2.43, while deputies Welbeck and Aaron Connolly are also both in the negative for Expected vs actual goals so far this season. This might seem like a matter of fortune, but the pundits who suggest that Brighton’s poor showings for both goals and points are purely down to bad luck are mistaken. Most culpable for the team’s failings are a crippling lack of confidence in front of goal and our recurrent inability to defend or attack set pieces. It might be cliché to say that in football you need to make your own luck, but this certainly rings true for Brighton’s beleaguered, dispirited squad. The xG metric suggests that things might come good for my team, but at the same time, they might well not – especially if we can’t fix our more deep-rooted psychological and tactical problems. As ever, statistics fail to account for real human emotion and error: in this way, Expected Goals can only ever hope to tell half the story.