Saturday 7th June 2025
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Finding the Sweet Spot: Where Privacy and Public Health Meet

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As the pandemic draws on and the availability of a vaccination before the end of the year seems increasingly optimistic, hopes for a return to normality have been pinned on the track and trace strategy. The international consensus is that effective tracing is only feasible with the assistance of technology, prompting governments around the world to focus on developing an application. Nobody has questioned the necessity to give up some degree of privacy for an app, but what is under question is the approach the UK government has taken, and the potential motivation behind it.

The new app, developed by NHSX, the digital unit of the NHS, uses Bluetooth Low Energy signals to log interactions between users, which are anonymised and uploaded to a central server. When a user reports COVID-19 symptoms through the app, the users they have interacted with will be alerted, shifting the painstaking task of a patient recalling their every encounter from human memory to technology.

The fundamental issue with this is that the government has opted for a centralised approach to the app, meaning the anonymised data is uploaded to a server. Creating an online repository of an individual’s movements, interactions, and data poses pertinent privacy concerns. The alternative approach is the decentralised method, in which anonymous data is exchanged directly between users’ phones, rather than being uploaded to a central server. In this model, the data never leaves the user’s phone, rendering it less susceptible to privacy breaches.

It is this decentralised approach that Apple and Google have endorsed. In unprecedented unity, the two companies are collaborating to roll out iOS and Android updates enabling phones to exchange Bluetooth signals in the background, whereas currently the Bluetooth tracking requires the screen to be on. In opting to forgo a solution devised by experts in this technology, there is a high chance that the government’s app will not be able to emit Bluetooth signals in the background. This will make the government’s app ineffective, as it will require the screen to be constantly on, draining the battery and making the phone unusable.

Experts have questioned why the government is unnecessarily pursuing a centralised approach. On 29th April, 177 academics signed an open letter to the government stressing the risk that their app could be used as a form of surveillance. They were particularly concerned that the data could be de-anonymized, revealing the identities of infected users and those who they have been in contact with, which risks exposing confidential medical data to malign actors. The experts condemned any attempt to create a ‘social graph’ of the people an individual has come into contact with, as this could be exploited to ‘spy on a citizen’s real-world activities.’

The UK is becoming increasingly isolated in its decision to proceed with a model that risks breaching data protection laws. Germany has switched to the decentralised model, citing concerns over the efficacy and the lack of public trust in a centralised model. Italy is supporting the Apple and Google initiative, which is more compatible with human rights. Closer to home, the Republic of Ireland has opted for a decentralised model, which the parliamentary Human Rights Committee has stressed may not be interoperable with the system used in Northern Ireland. If the app is expected to help facilitate a return to normal life, failing to accommodate travel across Ireland is a gaping flaw.

The trials already conducted do not bode well for the success of a centralised app. The Norwegian app, with a centralised design that uses both Bluetooth and GPS data, has generated privacy concerns. Perhaps this explains why, as of 28th April, only 20.5% of those over 16 were using it, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. The Singaporean app suffered a similar fate, running into technical issues with Apple restricting background access to Bluetooth, and having a download rate of below 20%.

It seems likely that the UK will follow its European counterparts in pivoting towards a decentralised model. The Financial Times reported on 7th May that NHSX has initiated a £3.8m contract with Zuhlke Engineering to investigate whether it can integrate the Apple and Google API within the existing app. The investigation is currently underway, but for the time being the government remains publicly committed to their centralised approach. The 2016 Cambridge Analytica scandal revealed that manipulation of data is no longer a dystopian fantasy but a real threat that modern-day democracy must contend with.

We now live in a world where individual data is invaluable, whether you are trying to sell a product or win a vote. Data can, and has, been exploited when it falls into the wrong hands. Only a few years on from these revelations, it is unsurprising that data experts have raised the alarm at the capacity of the government’s new app for surveillance and de-anonymisation. It is vital that scrutiny and transparency remains. We must expedite the track and trace capabilities, but not at the cost of our individual privacy.

Artist’s spotlight: in conversation with Charlotte Bunney

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How would you describe your work?

I work in all kinds of media. I would say I have most experience with watercolours and gouache but I love mixed media, pencils, ink and digital art too. I’m hoping to get some more practise with both oil pastels and chalk pastels again soon. In terms of style I am definitely all over the place or, to be a bit kinder to myself, very flexible. Some pieces are more realistic looking and some more illustrative but I think it’s actually very useful to have a range of styles when working on different projects.

Why do you make art?

Aside from it being a nice way to relax or to help process whatever might be on my mind, I’ve always really loved the physicality of a final piece. I love being able to hold something and know that I made it (I am also one of those strange people who gets excited about being able to touch fancy watercolour paper). The biggest joy I get from making art though is when I give pieces away to my friends; I’ll always get carried away, making the envelopes and the wrapping paper from scratch too!

What kind of things have influenced you?

In terms of style, I’m always looking at the work of other artists on Instagram to give me inspiration on techniques, use of colour or even just what I want to paint next. I would say a big influence on the things I naturally tend to paint would be nature as I do come from the Glorious North! I particularly enjoy painting landscapes and birds in gouache and I am also obsessed with the sea. More and more though I can see classical influences peaking through my work and I’ve got some pretty exciting ideas about how I’m going to develop my mixed media series on waves and the sea based on the Odyssey and some Attic pots I’ve been looking at. 

What would you like to do with art in the future?

Actually, I’m planning on launching a little online shop soon! I hope to sell prints, some originals and other physical objects I make, like sketchbooks. In terms of jobs, I would love to end up doing something creative. I graduate next year (hopefully), if anyone wants to hire me…

Do you find it hard to find time to make art as a student?

Yes. I’m currently doing 2 essays a week and elementary Greek so I’m very busy but for me it’s important to do something creative at least once a week. Sometimes when I’m pressed for time I’ll just do some cut and stick poetry or sketch something quickly, but I do really value the process of sitting down with a cup of coffee and Netflix and just painting for a good few hours.

What advice would you give to other artists looking to do something similar to you?

Honestly just keep practising if you enjoy it. Mistakes are going to happen (something that took a little while to accept) but the skills will come! If you’re comfortable doing it, I enjoy posting my work on Instagram and getting some feedback to keep me encouraged. 

Follow Charlotte on Instagram @artssoliloquies

‘Young Rembrandt’: The Making of a Master

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The name ‘Rembrandt’ is one entrenched in tradition, status, and artistic study. A true Old Master at the heart of the Dutch Golden Age, and undoubtedly one of the greatest artists of all time, his works may seem inaccessible to those of us unversed in art history or practice. Yet as the recent Young Rembrandt exhibition at Oxford’s Ashmolean Museum shows us, the profound opposite is true.

Forced to close their doors a mere three weeks after the unveiling, the museum and curators have taken it upon themselves to transfer the exhibition from physical to virtual. Via their website and a recent BBC documentary with expert Simon Schama, visitors from around the world can gain insight into the earliest works in Rembrandt’s career as a qualified painter. Spanning a ten-year journey, the same amount of time taken to prepare the exhibition, the curation presents a surprisingly heartfelt and inspiring story; from the reality of 1624’s young Rembrandt van Rijn, a struggling, unknown artist, we are led through his trials and failures on the way to becoming the Rembrandt of 1634, a growing commercial and cultural success on his way to mastery. Showcasing these early struggles and shortcomings throughout, the exhibition cuts to the core of Rembrandt’s work: as Schama puts it, ‘his instinct for common humanity’.

On a practical level, interacting with the online exhibition feels a little distant at first. Viewing artistic works in real life offers a chance to feel the atmosphere they create and see the textures and colours come to life beyond how they appear in prints or photographs. Though this may feel lacking at first, this downside of the virtual tour fades away with ease as we set off on Rembrandt’s journey: the careful layout of the selected paintings, sketches, etchings, and more, alongside the accessibly phrased accompanying explanations, takes us through the variety of material with refreshing clarity. Simple yet engaging passages tell us that, though to the amateur eye, such early paintings as the bold and colourful The Spectacles Seller (1624) seem perfectly pleasant to look at, on closer inspection the anatomy, perspective, and general technique are perhaps a little clumsy. The practical focus on explaining Rembrandt’s etching process, sketching style and compositional experimentation make this exhibition feel accessible to all and helps bring the pieces to life as we come to better understand them. From the very beginning, we can sense the humble, dedicated young man behind the artwork, even without being physically present to see it.

Moving through this chronological timeline, we are shown how Rembrandt’s artistic influences had a profound effect on his rapidly improving style. A lovely comparison of the first and second plates of the etching, Descent from the Cross and his Christ before Pilate (1633) highlights to visitors Rembrandt’s persistency, but also how his style evolved thanks to those around him – his collaborator at the time, Jan Van Vliet, helped perfect the plates. This breadth of context not only aids understanding of Rembrandt’s development but is also a reminder of how important human connection and exchange was for his artistic improvement – a particularly welcome thread of the exhibition in our current time of separation. The wider storytelling gives us all the chance to connect and take real inspiration from such an overwhelmingly human journey to success.

Looking from even the earliest paintings on display, that emotional sensitivity lays the foundation: the anatomy may not be exact, the perspective a little off, but depth of feeling and drama is clear in every piece of work. Schama’s documentary tour offers additional insight into some of the artworks as curated in the museum, from the complex moral tension in Tobit Accusing Anna of Stealing the Kid (1626) to the raw emotion and fierce empathy depicted in his acclaimed Judas Repentant Returning the Pieces of Silver (1629). Dramatic emotions are conjured by dark lighting, mirrored in the exhibition’s physical layout, and develop through his Biblical commissions, portraiture, and striking etchings into the trademark Rembrandt style. His work is boundless in its display of sympathy for his subjects: the wistfulness of old age, the physicality of the female form, the mortality of Christ, the coarseness of the common beggar, all this is etched raw into Rembrandt’s works without falsity or idealisation. His fame and renown become at once understandable by the end of this exhibition, with its show of dedication, growth, but most importantly human empathy.

In this period of external crisis, taking time to explore this moving display was a pleasure, no matter the format. By putting in the effort to curate this exhibition online, the Ashmolean allows people from all over, expert or amateur, to experience one of the greatest artists coming to life. In doing so, they embody that ever-present spirit of Rembrandt’s works: common humanity.  

Album Review: Hayley Williams’ ‘Petals for Armor’

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In ‘Misery Business’, Paramore’s 2007 breakthrough hit, Hayley Williams claimed that “second chances, they don’t ever matter / people never change”. She’s been proving that maxim wrong ever since, now refusing to play the song live due to controversial lyrics. After Paramore’s break (following a sometimes-dizzying revolving sequence of members and much internal conflict), Williams’ first solo album is a form of second chance in itself.

Petals for Armor is an eclectic offering. ‘Pure Love’ would fit in neatly with Paramore’s 2017 synth-pop album After Laughter, while ‘Taken’ and ‘Why We Ever’ flirt with R’n’B, and ‘Leave It Alone’ blends an acoustic guitar with classical strings. Williams’ subject matter is also diverse. On ‘Leave It Alone’, she contemplates alternative uses for the “noose that she made”, such as “turn[ing] it into a fire escape”. ‘Dead Horse’ details years of pain – “held my breath for a decade / dyed my hair blue to match my lips” before continuing “oh, I stayed with you too long / skipping like a record, but I sang along / and now you get another song”, a reference to her divorce from New Found Glory’s lead guitarist Chad Gilbert.

Speaking to NME, Williams said “I did not want to write about my past that way. I really didn’t. I’ve never had a problem singing about the things that make me mad. I’ve done that with Paramore our whole career, but I’ve learned how to articulate it in different ways as we’ve grown up”. This new range of articulation is effective. It feels like we’re meeting Hayley Williams for the first time, despite her long-term success as part of a group.

This variety is impressive, but also confusing – from a lesser artist, it could even appear to lack direction. However, Williams’ darkly frank lyrics are consistently offset with, and infused by, fizzy melodies. Whilst she does have a habit of repetition – in one case creating a viral sleeper hit on TikTok (‘Cinnamon’) – this is not always effective. ‘My Friend’, for example, feels like a rehashing of previous tracks. The disjointed and maudlin ‘Simmer’, though, is a gem of whispery vocals. It’s a brilliant album opener, a graceful attempt at working through fury.

One constant is the floral metaphor threaded throughout – part of a new vision of femininity after her time as a tomboy frontwoman in Paramore. It becomes a tad overplayed (as in ‘Watch Me While I Bloom’), but does have remarkable moments. ‘Roses/Lotus/Violet/Iris’ features backing vocals from Phoebe Bridgers, Julien Baker and Lucy Dacus, emphasising its theme of female solidarity when the three women are often lumped into a reductive category of “female indie artists”. Williams winks to her audience – “you only got one side of me / here’s something new, ahh!” Her sprawling, slithering evolution is self-conscious (as emphasised by her many writing credits on the album) but not always fully actualised. Williams acknowledges even this, stating in an interview that “I wish I could say ‘I wrote this record and life totally makes sense now’ but I still feel without all the answers. That’s what keeps us living… and being reminded there’s hope and pain everywhere in life. I guess this record is meant to embody all of it.”

This juxtaposition of vulnerability and growth is found throughout the album. In ‘Roses/Lotus/Violet/Iris’, Williams confesses “I myself was a wilted woman / drowsy in a dark room / forgot my roots / now watch me bloom”. ‘Cinnamon’ features powerful description of the spookily empty house she lived in post-divorce; it’s joyous. She’s learned to love the solitude. At the beginning of ‘Dead Horse’, she uses a voice note – often a cheap attempt at relatability but here seemingly genuine – saying “alright, it took me three days to send you this, but… Uh, sorry, I was in a depression”. Williams takes this openness – her petals – and, though they may be a little wilted, makes them serve as powerful armour with which to face an invasive world. On Petals for Armor, her vulnerability is her ultimate source of strength.

UCU calls on the University to halt redundancies and disciplinary procedures

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On May 6, the Oxford University & College Union (UCU) called on the University ​to pause its redundancies and disciplinary procedures during the time of the pandemic. In ​a tweet by ​the Oxford UCU account, they announced: “Oxford UCU committee had asked Oxford University to pause all redundancies and disciplinary procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are disappointed that the University has not paused such procedures and urge them to reconsider.” 

The tweet by the Oxford UCU was retweeted by fellow organizations such as the Cambridge UCU and the University College London UCU. 

In a comment to ​Cherwell, the Oxford UCU President stated the reason for the action is the hardship already brought about by the virus and the fact that continuing with redundancies would exacerbate the hardship faced by employees. 

The President explained: “Staff have already been adapting to seismic shifts in our ways of working and living, with increased stresses from work and concern for our loved ones, newly intensified childcare responsibilities, and heightened anxiety over the entrenched precarity of our day-to-day existence.”

The President continued: “It now appears inevitable that this crisis will have further deleterious effects, not least the very real threat of redundancies and the fact that some of us may not be able to make ends meet. We are appalled by reports of ill treatment of staff across the collegiate University, in particular those most precarious and vulnerable of our colleagues.” 

Further, the President spoke to how ambiguous the boundaries for a virtual disciplinary hearing are. 

“It is unclear for example what the legal basis of an online disciplinary hearing would be, and whether an employer can be said to have fulfilled their legal duty for a worker to be accompanied at a meeting via remote participation,” the President said. “Similarly, it is hard to see how fairness can be guaranteed at redundancy hearings without the physical presence of a trade union representative.” 

Other Universities in the UK have already had redundancies due to the virus. In April, Bristol University dismissed 84 staff members ​due to the ​coronavirus outbreak. There is even a new movement started amidst the outbreak called the ​#CoronaContract ​which seeks to gain two years of secure employment for university staff to ensure they have income and employment during this time. 

The #CoronaContract campaign is attempting to gather signatures in support of this motion from all national UCU branches on a virtual petition that can be found here​. No employees from the University of Oxford have signed the petition. 

The President of the Oxford UCU expressed disappointment with the University’s response to this issue: “We are deeply disappointed that the University of Oxford has not paused such procedures, and instead is pushing on with these procedures in a ‘business as usual’ approach. We urge them to reconsider. It is hard to accept the premise that we are all in this together where those that deliver crucial aspects of the University’s work are put in this position in this most troubling of times.” 

The University of Oxford did not offer a comment on the situation.

Image Credit to: Evy Prentice/Unsplash.com

Alan Rusbridger selected for Facebook overview board

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Alan Rusbridger, Principal of Lady Margaret Hall and former Guardian editor, has been selected as one of 20 members on Facebook’s new independent oversight board.  

Two years after Mark Zuckerberg announced his intention to create a structure to moderate content, Facebook has named its first 20 members. Alan Rusbridger will sit on a panel which includes Yemeni Nobel Laureate and free speech advocate Tawakkol Karman and Stanford law professors Pamela Karlan and Michael McConnell. 

The board will rule on the thin line between hate speech and free speech, reviewing the most controversial decisions on whether to leave or take down polarising content on Facebook and Instagram. It will also act in a “Supreme Court” like capacity to hear appeals from users on material that Facebook has removed. 

Facebook moderators will continue to use their combination of computer algorithms and human input for general rule enforcement, only employing the board on matters of high importance. 

The board is empowered to overrule Facebook executives and moderators on content issues, and its decisions will be binding unless implementation risks violating the law. 

Speaking to Cherwell, Alan Rusbridger said: “The pandemic is a stark realisation that unless you can agree on facts, and that there are such things as facts, running society becomes very difficult.”

Rusbridger did not underestimate the enormous scale of this challenge. He made clear that this is not “a magistrates court”, hearing every issue, but rather an attempt to pull together big themes, in the hope that “over time we will get to grips with the patterns of behaviour that most disturb people, and our rulings will set a clearer template for Facebook to make decisions.”

He described “the chaos of information, where even the most powerful politician in the world spends his time trying to blur the boundaries between facts and fantasy. There is no getting away from the fact that social media has been a big part in this. This has become one of the most urgent problems facing the world at the moment.”

The announcement comes as research conducted by Avaaz reveals that 40% of misinformation surrounding Covid-19 was found on Facebook, prompting the company to direct users viewing false news to the World Health Organisation website. 

Michael McConnell, one of the four co-chairs of the new board, said: “It is our ambition and goal that Facebook not decide elections, not be a force for one point of view over another, but the same rules will apply to people of left, right and centre.”

Tackling misinformation on Facebook, on a part-time basis of only 15 hours a month, poses a considerable challenge. In the coming months, the board will begin with “dozens” of cases, reviewed on an individual basis, out of the millions posted every hour. Moderating online content will be further complicated by Facebook rules differing according to the laws of each specific country. 

Facebook has invested $130 million in this oversight board over the next six years, during which time the number of members will double. The co-chairs will collaborate with Facebook in selecting the next 20 members, and then Facebook will withdraw to leave the board to determine its composition independently. 

Image Credit to:Alessio Jacona/commons.wikimedia/CC BY-SA 2.0

71% of surveyed Europeans support UBI

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The COVID-19 crisis appears to have increased public support for radical economic solutions in Europe. A survey published by the Europe’s Stories research team at the University of Oxford, revealed that 71% of those interviewed support a universal basic income.

Cherwell spoke to Timothy Garton Ash, leader of the research group and Professor of European Studies and Leader of the “Europe Studies” research group at Oxford on what his findings could mean for the future after COVID-19, how we can combat economic uncertainty among young people, and whether the “Baby Boomer” generation might be more supportive of student activism than we think. 

Do you think this level of support [71%] for a universal basic income has to do with heightened uncertainty during a pandemic or is it a policy Europeans have always supported?

The figure is remarkable. I think support was already growing because of a sense of inequality following the financial crisis and a sense of growing economic insecurity. This was then massively catalysed by the pandemic, partially of course because quite a few governments are already expanding their social security nets during the lockdown.

Does public support for policies like the universal basic income in the UK match the European response?

Yes, in this polling that we did, Britain is not an outlier. One of the things we discovered, ironically enough, is that just after Britain has left the EU, we see just how European the country is. The celebration of the NHS and the social care system in this country has been enormous – and what could be more European than a national health service and a strong welfare state?

Why do you believe has public support for a universal basic income not been matched by a policy response in Europe?

A universal basic income is certainly a radical proposal and has to be thought through quite carefully. A UBI is part of a cluster of concepts for a more equitable society: even Milton Friedman, a neoliberal economist, has proposed a negative income tax – people below a certain income receive money from the state instead of paying taxes. A form that I find really interesting, especially for students entering the economy is what I call universal minimum inheritance: to level up the inequality between those who have rich parents and those who don’t, everyone would get a public inheritance at the age of 25.

That sounds like a really interesting policy. Could you tell me a bit more about it?

The most radical version of it was proposed by Thomas Piketty in his new book. He proposes a pretty generous public inheritance: roughly 120,000 Euros when you turn 25. The question is obviously how that would get paid for… More realistic, I think, as a starting point, is a level of £10,000, as proposed by the Institute of Public Policy Research in London. They set up a “Commission for Economic Justice” with a wide range of people on it, including the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby. I think if you started with a negative income tax and a modest minimum inheritance, that’s already a lot better than what we have at the moment. 

How likely is it that progressive economic policies like the UBI are going to come out of the ongoing crisis in the UK?

Like all big historical moments, this one is creating very positive possibilities for us, but also very negative ones. Given the current impact of the pandemic, we could quite possibly come out of this with a much more unequal society, more nationalism and higher competition. The people who are being hit the hardest are those in low-skilled jobs and those with lower savings. The positive possibility across liberal democracies is that, with this coming on top of the financial crisis and the Eurocrisis, people finally start demanding action against inequality and insecurity for young people and poorer members of our society. The response to this in Britain could be connected to the levelling up agenda of the Johnson government, both geographically and socially – but that’s the optimistic version. 

Your study also finds that 58% of Europeans would like their countries to reduce carbon emissions to no excess emissions by 2030. Many students like myself feel a lack of support from the Boomer generation, but your findings vary little by age group. If it exists, why has support for climate action by the older generations been so quiet?

This is an interesting finding from the survey. We find much more variation when we ask questions like “Would you support a ban on non-essential flying?” or “Would you ban all petrol and diesel vehicles?”. Everyone tends to support the thing that doesn’t affect them, or affects them less: young people are more likely to support giving up petrol and diesel vehicles because they’re less likely to have one. Older generations want to keep their vehicles but would give up the flying. But beyond that: climate change is the issue of your generation and it’s definitely rather encouraging to see a degree of support from older Europeans for a really ambitious target. 

Climate action can’t be achieved without government action. 53% of young Europeans place more confidence in authoritarian regimes than democracies when it comes to addressing the climate crisis. Are young people disappointed by their representatives, and if so, why?

That’s such a staggering finding. With our team, we’ve been trying to dig deeper into that. As far as I can see, what it reflects is not admiration for authoritarian regimes but disillusionment with the way democracy is working. Young people believe that democracies are so slow-moving, so vulnerable to special-interest groups, corporations and the financial-services sector that they’re simply incapable of taking the radical action needed in time.

Is that a view you would personally agree with?

No, I don’t. Emphatically not. I think in authoritarian regimes, you end up neither with an effective answer to climate change nor with freedom. It’s a mistake that people have made again and again throughout history to think that if you give up the one you get more of the other. To give you one example: China, although it tells a good story about alternative energy, is one of the biggest sources of increasing carbon emissions without any effective control by public opinion. In a democracy, you and your generation can mobilise and democratic governments will respond – the European Commission has now made it the flagship policy of this period. 

Your team has developed a self-interviewing facility where people can record a ten-minute interview reflecting on their own crucial European moments and hopes for Europe in 2030. What results have you been able to gather from this so far?

(Link: https://europeanmoments.com/your-story)

First of all, I’d love to encourage all of your readers to take part in this. What is absolutely clear so far is that climate change and the complex issues around jobs and social security are on top of the list. The challenge for national governments and Europe as a whole is: can they deliver? And: how do we get from here to there? I fundamentally believe that it depends on you, your colleagues and other active citizens. Governments do ultimately respond to shifts in voters’ views. In democratic politics, you can shift ideas from the margins to the centre quite quickly – our findings on the UBI, which five years ago was seen as an eccentric and wildly utopian idea, show just that.

Professor Garton Ash, thank you for the interview and your time.

Image Credit to: MabelAmber/Pixabay

Oxford research suggests gradual lockdown release strategy

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Researchers from the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology have adapted a Susceptible-Exposure-Infection-Recovery (SEIR) framework to test the efficacy of two possible lockdown release strategies. The UK was used as a test case. 

Findings from this research showed that a gradual re-integration approach – wherein small portions of the population are released from lockdown measures over a long period of time after infection levels fall below a critical level – will ensure that infection surges are prevented.

Alternatively, testing of the “on-off” strategy – wherein everyone is released from lockdown simultaneously and lockdown is reinstated if infections surge too high – demonstrated a high risk of causing new waves of reinfection with a high likelihood of a reinstitution of lockdown measures.

According to the pre-print manuscript, the optimal gradual re-integration strategy would entail the release of half the UK population approximately two to four weeks after the end of an initial infection peak. After waiting three to four months to allow a second infection peak, the rest of the population would be released

The research, led by Professor Michael Bonsall from the University’s Department of Zoology, applied an optimal control framework to their adapted SEIR framework.

Professor Bosnall explained: “This is a mathematical model that groups people into different classes – (S) susceptible (not had the disease), (E) exposed (infected but not infectious – captures a class of individuals who have the infection but aren’t able to transmit it), (I) infected (individuals who are infectious can spread the disease to susceptible individuals) and (R) recovered individuals.

“We adapted this framework to have two groups – a group in lockdown/quarantine and a group not in lockdown. Those in lockdown have a lower probability of spreading disease than those not in lockdown. We use a mathematical approach to look for optimal solutions – with the question – how can we release the group in lockdown without increasing infections beyond a critical threshold (aka the number of beds in the NHS for COVID patients).”

Two factors are key for a successful lockdown release strategy: keeping the virus spread rate down and ensuring a quick recovery rate. The former can be ensured by social distancing, hand-washing, and limiting exposure to people outside one’s household, while the latter is achieved through scientific discovery and active improvement of the treatment of coronavirus. The research team acknowledged that accurate tracking of these two factors is essential to efficiently monitor the pandemic. 

Professor Bosnall emphasised that mathematical models like his team’s adapted SEIR model should be used for advice but cannot act as a single solution for government approaches to lockdown release. He advocates the synthesis of evidence from a variety of disciplines in all cases in which governments seek science-related advice and particularly in finding an appropriate and effective lockdown release strategy.

Professor Bosnall said: “Mathematical models require careful [parameterisation] and the results can be skewed by inaccurate values – exploring the sensitivity of our predictions to changes in parameters is another way to provide weight of evidence – if changing spread rate has very little effect on the general prediction that gradual exit from lockdown is best, then we can be robust in this advice.“We are using epidemiological studies in Oxford and elsewhere to collect data on the levels of infection in the community. This is essential to understand the background levels of virus infections, inform our models and help deliver appropriate public health planning.”

Image Credit to: Grue/commons.wikimedia/CC BY 3.0

Oxford blood donations cancelled for COVID-19 plasma trial

Oxford is cancelling some blood donations over the next few weeks in order to divert resources to COVID-19 trials. The blood donation resources will be used to support a national plasma trial, led by Oxford Professor of Haematology David Roberts. 

This trial was announced by the Department of Health and Social Care on 25th April and aims to investigate whether plasma transfusions from patients who have recovered from coronavirus could be an effective treatment. It is believed that this plasma may contain antibodies which would fight the disease, potentially increasing a patient’s likelihood of survival and speed of recovery. 

Speaking to the Oxford Mail, Roberts said that “in previous flu and coronavirus epidemics, some reports suggested antibodies from donors who had recovered from the disease could be used to treat acutely ill patients… [This] is an exciting development as there is no proven treatment for COVID-19.”

NHS Blood and Transplant has collected over 400 plasma donations so far. Potential donors can give their details here.

Preliminary studies in China have been hopeful. Ten patients received a 200ml dose of plasma and researchers argued that all symptoms subsided within three days.

Prof Sir Robert Lechler, the president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, spoke to The Guardian, saying: “Convalescent plasma transfusions are not a silver bullet solution for the coronavirus health crisis; however, they do have the potential to be hugely beneficial. The US has charged ahead with this. They have already treated 500 patients with convalescent plasma, and although it is much too soon to know the results, anecdotally it has helped patients recover.”

A potential advantage to plasma treatments is plasma’s longevity. According to Scotblood, “blood has a shelf life of 35 days and platelets can only be used for up to seven days, while fresh frozen plasma can be kept for up to three years”. Plasma could then be stored and used in the event of a second wave.

The short shelf-life of blood does mean that this strategy culminates in risk. Freeing up appointments in donation centres requires cancelling blood and platelet donation appointments. Blood and platelets have shorter shelf-lives than plasma, so there is the risk that supplies will run low. 

While a drop in blood and platelet supplies would typically culminate in concern, the drop in non-urgent surgery creates a similar drop in demand. An NHS Blood and Transplant spokesperson insisted supplies of blood would still be available for those in need and clarified the policy change: “We are still collecting blood and platelet in Oxford so please keep making appointments to donate. Donation saves lives.

“This new trial is part of the national research effort against the coronavirus and we hope people understand if we make any changes to your appointment… If your appointment is cancelled until another day it means we have good blood and platelet stocks, and the appointment time can be used for someone to donate plasma to a seriously ill COVID-19 patient.”

Appointments can be re-booked by visiting blood.co.uk, using the NHSGiveBlood app or calling 0300 123 23 23.

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Oxford City Council set to lose £24m from coronavirus

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Oxford City Council stands to lose £24 million as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. This marks a sharp change in economic fortunes for one of the few UK councils to usually return money to the Treasury. 

It is predicted that the Council will also lose a further £11 million in the next year, with an extra cost to the public of £1 million. This is despite the recent payment of £1,511,436 to the Council from the Government, with an additional £110,247 also provided in April. 

In a letter to the Communities and Local Government Secretary, Leader of the Council Susan Brown explained the reasons for the shortfall: “This is in part due to the city forming a focal point for some of the most difficult challenges, such as housing rough sleepers and targeting assistance across diverse communities. In the main, however, it reflects our longstanding reliance on generating income.” 

She noted the particular effect on incomes “from our historic city centre retail property portfolio, from car-parking, and from commercial earnings generated by our wholly-owned direct services company ODS and our housing development company OCHL.”

The Council Leader also outlines the steps the Council has put in place to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, all of which have impacted the Council’s financial plans: “We’ve delivered food, medicine and other support to 1,500 vulnerable households across the city, rented more than 120 hotel, college and hostel rooms for homeless people to social distance, and facilitated more than £75 million of immediate financial support to Oxford’s businesses.”

While welcoming the support the Government has given Oxford City Council, Mrs Brown explains that this is not currently sufficient: “The City Council is significantly more exposed to these financial impacts than some of our neighbouring councils… you will see that the allocation covers just 13 percent of our total funding gap.”

The issue of how the funding has been distributed between councils was a key point of the letter to the Communities Secretary: “I note the allocations were made across the country on a per capita basis, which does not take into account the more challenging position for city-based local authorities such as Oxford. I am afraid it falls a long way short of our needs to deal with the immediate impacts of the Coronavirus, let alone its full financial impact longer term.”

The Council has suggested that more flexibility is required with the rules governing its budget, with the request that the capital budget (reserved usually for long-term building projects) be made available to coronavirus-related services. There have also been calls to lift a ban imposed in the spring budget from borrowing money from the Public Works Loan Board.

Layla Moran, MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, said: “The Government is penalising those councils who are going the extra mile, which in my mind is exactly what we need from our local authorities right now. Robert Jenrick thinks the funding already announced is ‘more than enough’ – well the letter from all of Oxfordshire’s council leaders to him last month shows he’s incorrect.

“I’m calling on the Government to reverse this decision and give councils the funding they need to survive this crisis. They’re on the frontline of the fight against coronavirus and deserve better than Whitehall abandoning them.”

Anneliese Dodds, MP for Oxford East, said: “Oxford City Council have been working hard to support Oxford’s residents during this crisis. While I welcomed the government’s announcement of additional funding for local authorities, we need to ensure that it fills the financial gap that our councils are facing, including direct costs and foregone revenue. 

“I have raised this with the Chancellor and will continue to push on this to ensure our councils can continue to provide their essential services during this crisis and beyond.”

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