Recently much has been made of the global rise in fringe anti-establishment politics that challenges political norms and galvanises disillusionment with the mainstream. Both sides of the political spectrum are represented with their respective emblematic issues: anti-austerity for the left and anti-immigration on the right. On the one hand, antipathy towards the ethnically defined ‘other’ and, on the other, hostility towards traditional elites and the vested interests they are seen to represent. Given the clamour surrounding the likes of Trump, Le Pen and the European anti-austerity movements one would be excused for believing that the political institutions of the West were crumbling around our ears.
So it might just seem amazing – given this apparent wave of either xenophobic or anti-capitalist hysteria – that not only are Western governments functioning perfectly well, but that the moderates and the centrists don’t really look as if they’re going to be vacating office any time soon.
Admittedly many on the left will point to the success of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain as harnessing the considerable popular resentment towards the European Union and their demands for austerity, along with the political parties who acquiesce to these. However, for the only government in the West that has been elected on a platform that is markedly outside the mainstream, it is clear that even Syriza have compromised and deferred to European authority. In giving into the requirements of the European bailout agreement the party has split and their dogmatically Marxist finance minister Yanis Varousfakis has resigned and left the party.
A similar conclusion might be drawn from Podemos – the Spanish anti-austerity party: that they smashed the country’s two party system. However, the electoral statistics tell a different story. Not only did Podemos poll third behind social democrats PSOE – with around 20 per cent of the vote – they have recently shown signs of compromise and acquiescence, with an agreement for a grand left coalition with moderates and Catalan separatists. It is also worth remembering that this is a party that not only threatened to break the two-party grip on power: but to seize power for themselves. For having been placed as the top party in a multitude of opinion polls around the start of the year, their expectations have been dashed and they have been relegated to junior coalition partners. Political institutions, it seems, have a way of turning those that seek to overthrow them into prime exponents of those very systems: turning zealous outsiders into cold-hearted insiders.
The hyperbole is not solely isolated to the left, with expectations rather undeservedly high for both the Front National in France and Donald Trump’s attempt to seize the presidency in the USA. The former is symptomatic of a recurring phenomenon within French politics, but is also easy to dismiss. While opinion polling confirms that there is a distinct chance of Marine Le Pen ending up in the run-off of the final two candidates for French president, the same opinion polls almost unanimously demonstrate that those who had voted Sarkozy or Hollande would significantly prefer to vote for the other man: such is the anathema towards her. Their example serves to exemplify the point that while their strain of anti-establishment politics might galvanise a hardcore of voters, the rest of the electorate is alienated to the point where it becomes completely debilitating for their chances for gaining election. The French political system is simply designed to give these characters their allotted airtime, then dismiss them instead opting for the radical centre.
Then we are left with Donald Trump.
It says something about the state of American politics, that there is a man who seems as if he is a Sacha Baron Cohen creation and is yet being seriously considered as a contender for the Republican Presidential nomination. Nevertheless, the Iowa Caucus looms and the polls are yet to show his support waning. However, the key thing to remember here is that the demographics who are voting to select the Republican leader are wildly different to those who will vote in the Republic vs Democrat contest in November. The same people who are electing Trump are those who support bombing the fictional Arabian city of Agrabah: home of Aladdin. Yes, there is slight chance that Republican voters might even give him the nomination, however, the notion that he will beat Hillary Clinton is laughable. He speaks to the very worst of a very specific, yet vocal, minority of Americans. And given that he has spent the past year expressing his disdain for anyone who isn’t a white and male, it is hard to believe that he could ever persuade a significant proportion of the country that he was not just a loose cannon and a joke.
This is not to say that the sentiments underlying these parties are nothing to worry about. Expressions of xenophobia and racism are harmful to minorities and society as a whole. However, electorates are more united in the distrust of these fringe groups than they are of anything else. For while the hysteria around fringe political groups grows the systems in which they operate are working to swallow them whole. And yet the clamour will continue, but the centre will in fact continue to hold.
